The most recent British source I have for 'Most dysphoric people do not transition' comes from GIRES, Gender Identity Research & Education society which, as the name suggests, is a trans research group which is well known to be pro-self ID. They have further research on their website though not always to the detail I would like (like they say things like 'assessment takes 6 months'', but they don't seem to yet have published research on how much face-to-face with a professional that involves or whether that's waiting for one appoinement which I think is an important difference and both should be monitored and discussed)
This was the evidence GIRES gave to Parliament as part of a consultation. It quotes Dutch research primarily but other research as well and from that clearly states that only a fifth of the estimated dysphoric population are likely to seek out medical help specifically for gender dysphoria, with that percentage being far far lower in the UK. That means over 80% of estimated dysphoric people in the UK do not seek out medical transition. Even if we take self-prescribers into account (most of whom in my experience have sought out medical care but, due to the abysmal waiting lists caused by underfunding, choose to self medicate during and continue after the waiting period), most dysphoric people don't transition. We never have. In the days of 'strict gatekeeping' dysphoria was not by itself grounds for support to transition because it's rather extreme care and for most things, it's generally thought to do that which has the least risk first and see if that helps first and then move up.
Just because we have the internet doesn't mean anyone should be self-prescribing. I can't actually believe anyone thinks that web forums are a reliable place to get medical advice. As someone who has had to help care in the aftermath for a trans woman who was taking over 5 times the dose recommended by her doctors because so many people online told her that much E was safe, that doctors just don't understand so she doesn't really need to talk to them, and if she did take that dose she would get results she wanted faster (when no, it wasn't safe and none of these hormones are a guarantee of any particular result) I think people like you who want to say 'we have the internet now, we don't need medical professionals' are putting vulnerable lives at risk. The internet is full of so much bullshit, why in the universe would anyone think the internet is in any possible way a substitute for proper on-going medical care. WAKAME, would you recommend people self-prescribe for everything? Should people be able to self-prescribe morphine or tramadol because 'we have the internet now'? Self medication is as old as brain function has allowed it, rats will do it if you put them in shitty conditions, that doesn't mean we should encourage or enable it and certainly shouldn't rely on random people online to tell you how much you should take. I mean, seriously, asking about sizing a bra is one thing but body altering medications really kinda need a professional.
Transition can help some people with dysphoria, but it's not for the majority of us. Those it can help, we know from research - some of which are in that Cornell study - that it works significantly better with a thourough screening and therapy process and for many on-going therapy. Every dysphoric person who feels a need to reach out should get that. Dysphoric people, we deserve better than to have our medical needs thrown aside because the internet mobs think they know better than medical professionals. You know, the kinds of people who wrote those articles you're quoting as the voice of authority and then spitting on when you say that people don't need them to transition well. All the people in pre- to post- studies were cared for and monitored by the medical professionals, their main sources for medication were not the internet.
My saying that the study isn't huge doesn't say it isn't the biggest. It's stating that in terms of meta-studies within research in general, it's pretty small and if these were the only studies they could get...that pretty much means to me that research is lacking, which I've been saying for years though I'd prefer it research into gender dysphoria was not transitioned focused. And, as I said, the metastudy can not claim causation - as Cornell said, to prove causation would be unethical because individualized nature of the care required (the therapy components) means we can't do that. It would be like proving causation of alcohol for fetal alcohol syndrome which would require randomisation and having some mums drink heavy amounts. For some things, we only have hindsight and correlation data (and papers published in 2017 are not about people who transitioned in 2017, to show improved well-being means it was done significantly after to remove initial emotional spikes as those would bring the data into question, the Dhejne studies included those who transitioned in 2003 but her work published in 2011. That's an okay gap but to prove long term well being you have to wait awhile). We have enough evidence to show how important the therapy is for dysphoric patients, if you look at research gate there are some going back to decades. That's pretty much done, hopefully the ones on transition will be done soon too because there is so much else to research about gender dysphoria.
They can a show correlation between transition and improved well-being. None of the studies are transition only though which is why I am banging on about the issue with treating transition as the goal, as the one thing dysphoric people need, when the research doesn't say that. It says, as part of wider medical care for dysphoria, transition has a positive effect on some adults suffering from gender dysphoria. That's really enough. We have something which helps some people, great, let's look at other options for other people, let's see which talking therapies work help transition to work the best, let's look at resurgance in self medicating on hormones and maybe compare them to the '70s group, let's see what helps little dysphoric kids the most to ease their distress before puberty because as someone who used to be one of them, who was talking about a sex change at 7, I think everyone deserves better care, but particularly kids. Honestly, I am astounded how in the Midwest/Bible belt where I grew up I somehow got better and more thourough care for my mental health as a kid through the schools than I see for most adults I know trying to get help now. I got general individual therapy, I got group therapy, at the second high school there was specifically LGBTQ+ group therapy run by the UU church down the road which was all about what we would now call affirmation, I was typically the first and only known dysphoric kid in the schools - and I moved a lot - and I got excellent care and accomodations (though I think some would think it odd I was in the boys' locker room under the supervision of two men who checked everyone was dressed before I entered. Never changed in there but was in there for other things but saying I was in the guy's locker room with a few dozen boys and two men does sound weird to most). I think if people are who are too often said to hate people like me can consider all my needs, progressives who are meant to care a lot more should be pushing for more than pills, injections, patches, surgery, and changing some letters on a bit of paper. That that seems to be GIRES focus in their consultation research - how fast can we get people on hormones - is frustrating because that's really a small part of the dysphoric puzzle and not all dysphoric people even want to consider that. Dysphoric people deserve better than that, hell, I think everyone deserves better.
And please look into the Samaritans and their media advice for writing about suicide. Your remark breaks evidence-based best practice in suicide prevention.