Storm Jocelyn.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Yep, another named storm. Named storm number 10. Primarily an Ireland/Northern Ireland, Scotland, north Wales and northern England affair and does not look as severe as Isha.

Named by Met Éireann. Their warning starts tomorrow night.

The Met Office yellow warning for the northern half of Britain kicks in at 4pm tomorrow. I think it's possible amber warnings may be issued within that area for the early hours of Wednesday. We shall see.

Thanks for the threads. You mention that it being an el nino year contributing to the storms. Does that just last a year? So next year it would be unlikely to be as stormy? I know you can't predict that far ahead but as el nino comes in cycles is that the general likelihood? Not that I'm already worried about next winter or anything (I am)!

el nino can last multiple years.

El Niño is just one of the potential drivers. Usually it tends to be associated a stormy start to the winter with a cold dry end to the winter. So while I've mentioned it as a factor, I'm not sure that we are going to see a typical end to the winter.

El Nino typically tends to last less than a year, but can last significantly longer. NOAA are currently forecasting that this one will end between April and June and return to ENSO neutral conditions.

I also need to add that I'm in no way an expert, just a fallible amateur who hopes she isn't getting things wrong.

Thank you!

Oh of course, I just think things always "feel" worse at night. It's like when you know there's a spider in the room but you can't see it. You can hear the storm outside (and it's keeping me awake) but you have no idea if tiles have come off the roof or how the fence is faring until hours later.

@OhYouBadBadKitten what is an El Niño year?

Thankyou very much OYBBK. It has really been A LOT of weather! Fascinated as to how all this forecasting works.

Barely slept last night because of Isha! Was paralysed with fear that my recycling bin would get blown into another county 😂 the wind was so strong today too. Not looking forward to tomorrow night 😩

There is a good explanation here. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/oceans/el-nino

My DD is flying to Inverness tomorrow, and it looks like most trains have been cancelled to Forres already. She can get the bus if the 4.30pm train (the only one that is showing as going) doesn't go but it gets in to Forres after the last bus to Kinloss has gone. I've given her some money for a taxi so at least she can get home. She's flying back to Luton on Wednesday so hopefully it all works in reverse.

The Weather Outlook's thoughts on Storm Jocelyn.

Not a day for hill walking in Wales, or northern England/Scotland, with gales by lunch over high ground.By early evening gusts between 60-70mph over western Scotland and western Ireland. These winds spreading eastwards. The peak of the winds probably somewhere around 2am-6am. Another disturbed night and for those still without power, probably feeling quite scary and uncomfortable.

Northern England will see high winds too, while the rest of England and Wales will experience widespread gales.

Overall, not as fierce as Isha, but coming so quickly after her, it will cause further issues.

One for the denialists

😂😂😂

Well it's raining cats and dogs already.

Wind just getting up again here on NE coast of England. I'm trying to get as many errands done now before it all goes a bit to pot again. Just off to school to drop DDs coat in that she forgot this morning. Have weighted the bins down. Again. Recycling bin night tonight, so hoping everyone doesn't put their bins out till the morning.

It's rained off and on since 8am here. Managed to get FosterDog walked and got home just as it started raining again. Not much in the way of wind at the moment but it's a chilly 7C

It has been very unpleasant since early this morning in Co. Cork. You wouldn't want to be out in it.

Thanks for the thread.

Had two teeth extracted yesterday so it's a rest day, fire laid up, watching desperate housewives, it's a snuggle down day.

Netweather's thoughts on Storm Jocelyn
(interesting bit further down on the naming of storms...)

Hope you're ok after your visit to the dentist, justasking111 ~ definitely the sort of day for a snuggle day!

I'm surprised we haven't had more flooding in Wales we've done much worse in the past when having drier winters. I can only think that the water table was perilously low after the drought of 2022.

Back to the office after working in a very exposed area of Cheshire, in a building on a sandstone ridge. Glad to be back - sky is looking very ominous and the wind is starting to roar.