Storm Ciarán

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

This is an early heads up.

Models have consistently been bringing in a deep low pressure for sometime over Wed/Thurs. As is often the case, details are yet to be nailed down, but some of the models are producing some severe gusts - southern coastal winds of up to 90mph and more widespread inland winds of around 60mph. With storms, comes rain too unfortunately. A wobble in the track could take them further north or, keep it all in France. Exactly when and where the low pressure develops will make a big difference in the outcome. More details to follow.

If the storm is named, it will be Storm Ciaran. At that point I'll ask MNHQ to change the title appropriately.

The easiest way to solve it is to not have more children. A population of a billion can do pretty much what it wants. 8 billion and rising not so much.

What do we do about the 7 billion excess people we’ve already got?

This is an issue fraught with difficulties, both practical and ethical. The native populations of most affluent countries are reproducing at below the rate needed to maintain the population. And in some countries, e.g. Japan, this is recognised as a big problem, because there are not enough young people to provide and care for the older population.

And then you have the other extreme, e.g. one of the snippets which I clocked in the coverage of the Gaza situation is that 50% of the population are children, and I’m sure that if you looked up the figures for many poorer countries, you would find a reproduction rate well above what was needed to maintain a stable population.

Even if we maintained a stable population at a global level, they could not all consume at an affluent western level based on fossil fuels. So the rich people keep what they’ve got and the poor keep what they haven’t? Doesn’t sound fair. And to stabilise the population…. better birth control in the populations with above-replacement birth rates plus migration from areas of high birth rate to areas of low birth rate. Lots of problems with that - people as commodities has an unsavoury feel about it, not to mention the howls of protest from some sections of the affluent population about migration as it is.

No answers here, just awareness of some of the questions.

Thank you for this. I had a total panic when I was opening and closing the door to Trick or Treaters. It basically jammed and the key wouldn't turn properly (obviously wasn't caught quite shut as it was swollen from damp) I wouldn't care, the same thing happened at the same time last year and I ended up with a shoulder injury from shoulder charging it shut. I've already got multiple issues with my spine.

What we need to do (and we are making progress) is create renewable ways to produce the energy for modern life. I personally feel there should be more onerous requirements put on property developers to include things like solar roof slates, battery banks etc to make new homes self sufficient. We are missing a trick with all the cheap houses we are allowing to be thrown up and developers taking a huge profit instead of investing in our future. I hope labour with change this before they open the flood gates for all the new homes they propose.

The wind is picking up here and I'm watching my neighbours trampoline with trepidation.

I'm not sure we can say they over reacted.

The forecast was exceptional and no one could know it would move further south over night.

Plus the worst was due to hit between 12-4pm so pupils could have had issues once in school or safety getting home.

I'd rather a school shut unnecessarily than not shut and there be severe consequences.

Same town here!!!

So far quite calm - considering the forecast!

This is a weather thread- an on the day account please don't fill with bigger arguments and discussion, there are loads of threads for that

Massive bang last night was a large Oak branch hitting our wood store. Thankfully that was the most extreme event that we saw here on the mid Dorset coast. Trees down and flooding but escaped the worst.

Wind picking up but about to go to work.

Thoughts to those in the CI, just looking at pictures now.

I'd also agree with this. We were in the red zone for Arwen and it was due to hit at 2pm on a Friday. Schools wouldn't shut or let pupils go early (they didn't even know about the warning!) and we ended up with loads of damage and trees down. Mind, they are pig headed like that up here in my area (NE coast of England) so I make my own decisions now.

@greenacrylicpaint
but there have always been storms... That's true, There are some vivid eye witness accounts from Victorians
but I neeeeed my gas guzzling car... Most cars are about 50% more efficient on fuel consumption than in 1970s. Since 1990s Emissions from vehicles has improved, and continue to do so.
but nothing is being recycled anyway... Talk to the package industry, they dictate to us the consumer.
but China needs to change before I will consider doing anything...Are any of the pressure groups bothering to confront China.
but I deserve my holiday abroad... Seems a fair point to me. We do deserve some relaxation and enjoyment as we choose.
but I can't eat any meal without meat... Meat is a nutritious and tasty part of any meal.

They have just cancelled all the trains through my village due to high winds, it is picking up a little bit I also just read the south east has dodged a bullet and it's over? Do not sure who to believe but my concert with Rick astley is looking more and more unlikely ☹️

Still totally calm in Bristol, just rainy (which is nothing new!).

After last night's game in Bournemouth the Liverpool team had to take the coach to get back up north after flights were cancelled. Can't recall that ever happening before. The game itself was very strange with the wind carrying the ball all over the place.

Thank you - I might show my mother this post!

This was a really hard storm to predict. If it had been a few miles further north I think we would be reading some very different posts this morning.

Shocking damage in the Channel Islands and northern France. 100 miles further north and that would have been us in Southern England (and I feel very sorry for everyone who has been affected). Forecasting isn’t easy, and 100 miles isn’t a lot in forecasting terms. Especially with marine heatwave doing strange things to our storms this autumn.

The eye of the storm is over the east coast at the moment. Winds will still be quite strong for the south/SE coast this afternoon but should gradually ease towards the evening/overnight.

After a bright start, rain has just started here (Leicester) and that looks like it's set in for the rest of the day.

After a relatively quiet morning the wind seems to be returning to Bournemouth, and my front door is wide open as Dh key broke in the lock last night and so he is drilling old lock out !

What is the situation looking like for Calais to Dover ferries later this afternoon/evening do you think?

Looking at the pictures of the queues at Dover, probably not hopeful.

Duckduckloose ~ just found this on twitter ~

"The Port of Dover has now re-opened to shipping, though some delays should be expected over the coming hours as traffic clears. Passengers should continue to follow@PoD_travelnews and check with their chosen ferry operator for updates throughout the day."

So should be ok but might be delays.

Please can debate about whether or not you think forecasters are rubbish in a your own separate thread. For some people this has been a very nasty and serious storm. Others have major travel disruption. Keeping this thread clear allows people to get practical advice and any emotional support that they need and ensures that subsequent forecasts are not lost in debate.

Same to the climate change discussion people. Important discussion? Yes. Appropriate for this thread? no.

So the flat immediately adjacent to ours and the one opposite have enough water coming through the ceiling to have had to go stay elsewhere, obviously the roof has taken some serious damage.

Which I suppose means in continuing awful weather it's just a waiting game until it spreads over our way

OhYouBadBadKitte

I am doing what I can about climate change. One of the things I can do is to not be silenced about it. Threads about extreme weather events are absolutely fair game. Climate change will make these more frequent and more extreme. Insurance will go up or stop and many people will be very badly effected. That’s without to global impact and the impact on our health, wealth and safety here.

So, no, sorry, I will not be silenced.

You are not being silenced! Just respectfully being asked not to discuss climate change etc on a thread which was started to inform people about Storm Ciaran and support those who have now been affected by it. You can start your own thread for a discussion on climate change.

@OhYouBadBadKitten Point taken Ma'am.