Winter Weather outlook

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

Cold! Though depending on what happens to the low pressure it may be less cold later in the week.

We might see freezing fog as being an issue as we go into the weekend. This would suppress temperatures further by day and lead to slippery surfaces.

Ah thanks! Managed fine last week but tonight was not fun, couldn't stay warm....

-2.5C here (Leicester) this morning. Brrrrrrrr

The weather station is reading -4.9C. W. Oxfordshire.

-3 Chilterns

Bloody freezing at the bus stop here. May need to reconsider outfit for work Xmas party tomorrow night. Possibly to something involving thermals. And maybe a wearable blanket.

Around 0c here in the urban southwest (devon) we are tropical in comparison to some areas.

Snowing in St Andrews. DH sent a video to show off😂

Rural Devon is a little colder. Looking forward to getting into the tropical urban.

-6 in Cheshire this morning!
Luckily roads don’t seem too bad.

Dreading the snow (and the heating bill 😫).

Frosty, 0 degrees, in Surrey.

+2.0c on seafront in Dun Laoghaire, just south of Dublin. But no signs of frost surprisingly! Signal failure on train line though causing delays both ways.

Dh cheered me up at breakfast with his doom-mongering. He's going to Galway Sunday night instead of early Monday morning so I'll be getting everyone else up while stressing over getting to the airport.

But the bestest, funnest part? I might not be able to get home again tomorrow week because " the big snow event" is coming we'd/thurs so midnight fri arrival to Dublin airport could be interesting. (I'm reckoning that the plane will at least get to Ireland and diverted to Shannon or Cork in the worst case, so either a bus back home - or I jump off and visit family and make my own way back on Saturday 🤣

Good morning Wintery Wonders!

www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-12-09
Updated ice warnings. Weather forecast incoming in a bit.

Snow flurries in Edinburgh now.

Oh no Biddy

I dunno what the temp is but living on a high(ish) floor, the frost is solid on rooftops. I don't have to head to the station till later. I mostly worked at home from about 2016 and the relief of not risking limbs on icy pavements is massive.

following the spinal injury, it takes me twice the time to walk to the station if pavements are slippy. Looking back on it, I don't know why I didn't take cabs those days...I think I had a very delayed reaction to the injury in my head....anyway, those of you who can't walk on slippery pavements, do take extra care out there...or take a cab if you can.

I'm always stunned when I see runners fly by on icy pavements. I bought some trainers that were meant to help and it made things worse somehow!

East coast, thin layer of snow and icy, 1 degree.

Emma, once we get packed snow you might find Yaktrax handy. Basically, they're snow chains for your shoes. They aren't suitable for thin ice, but once there's a build up, they make a big difference. www.yaktrax.co.uk/product/yaktrax-walk/

Just noticed they're out of stock on that site, but they are available elsewhere.

I tried those, as did my dad, they made things worse and then there's taking them on and off. I can't wear them in my block of flats entrance, hard floor, then as soon as you enter the station, you skid on the similar hard floor.

when dad retired, he just stayed in in this sort of weather. Mum used to be fine walking on icy pavements, but now she can't walk much at all. She has a hospital appointment at the end of next week. She will want to keep it even if it's snowing but I am not sure how we will manage it.

I will not grumble in a heatwave again...I had forgotten how crap this is, we had quite mild winters since...I dunno...2017? I remember Beast from the East in 2018 but that was quite short lived.

or maybe the cold is bugging me more as I get older?

There is the issue of what happens when you get indoors, I agree. I use them for working outdoors, though, so going indoors isn't a big issue.

I guess the two main questions people have are: Will it snow and how long will this last?

Snow generally seems to be confined to coastal areas, both east and perhaps also western coastal areas. Norfolk has had a nice dusting in places this morning. There's still the chance of pop up snow showers. Kent is showing some for Sunday for instance.

The threat of a more widespread snow event next week doesn't seem to be very high at present, with most models not advancing low pressure from the south.

So for snow lovers, it's a wait and see situation away from northern Scotland, for snow haters, chances are most people look ok at the moment.

It does look pretty cold though and there's the threat of some freezing fog developing by night.

At the moment, this looks to be our pattern for around the next 9 or 10 days, before it the block breaks down and warmer air advances. But who knows what will happen by then!

I love my yaktrax for packed snow. It's been a long while since I've had chance to use them though.

I always carry a pair of the cosy/fleecy socks in my bag on icy days, the kind you get in the pound shop. If things get too slippy just put them on over your shoes and they stick to the floor. They probably will be ruined on that trip but they do the job in an emergency. Saw a woman years ago get stuck in a dip on a very icy pavement, she just couldn't get traction and make it up on either side, needed a couple of strangers to grab an arm each and slide her out 😀

Same here. I think I do actually know where they are, though!