Winter Weather outlook

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

Wow those night time temperatures seem low. Agree about elderly and pavements

Careful what you wish for. I stayed at CP once when it was so cold the lake froze and I was so cold at night in the lodges. The thermostat was on some sort of timer and kept resetting to 13!

@CoffeeBoy oh hadn’t thought about that

Thanks for the reminder about turning off the outside taps, we've done that now.

We had a hosepipe split. Not discovered until the following summer 😂

Whether cold remains after the 12th is on a knife edge. Some models brought in mild air around the 12th, but the GFS run just now keeps things cold.

I'll split this mornings update into two posts. Firstly as to how long this might last.

We are still no closer to any resolution as to whether the cold will break on 12th December (or thereabouts)

11/30 of the GEFS runs finish cold sometime between 12th - 14th in the south, but interestingly only a small number finish it in that time frame in the north, so we may end up with a north south split.

GFS, which is a single deterministic model keeps surface temperatures cold until around the 19th, but warms upper air temperatures up before then. Then later it introduces polar maritime air (cold showery)

ECM ensembles jump the temperatures up to around 6c on average on the 12th before climbing them higher.

MOGREPS which is a met office ensemble suite keeps temperatures cold throughout the period.

Explanation: Deterministic means one model that takes a single best guess shot at what might happen. Ensembles means a cluster of runs, all with slightly different inputs to see the range of possibilities that might occur.

Conclusion: We don't know what will happen next week, but growing signs that it might warm up some next week.

Now looking at snow risk, which I will keep to this week only, give the above uncertainty. (some models show some really snowy scenarios for the weekend of the 16th!)

The primary risk is for today/tonight in northern Scotland. Perhaps also higher areas in north Yorkshire and maybe, possibly through Dartmoor (just thrown that one in from BBC R4 forecast )

Then along the eastern coast down through East Anglia. These coastal areas could be pretty tricky where rain showers wash away grit, before snow then falls, leading to icy conditions.

Tomorrow may see snow over northern Moors and hills and continuing down the east coast. Northern scotland will continue to see some I think. Perhaps a little over higher parts of south Wales too.

By Friday I think snow showers may penetrate further inland from the east coast and there may be more widespread flurries.

I asked Alexa what she thought for my area. She helpfully informed me I had a 55% chance of snow with 0.13cm of snow expected. Hilarious! Thanks for that alexa!

Please ignore apps for snow risk, they are no use in showery situations like this.

Thanks for that, @OhYouBadBadKitten.

Thank you for the update 😀

You're welcome!

Ive got a few extra minutes this morning so a quick summary of what may happen early to mid next week.

Scenario 1: Low pressure stays to the south of the UK - leading to continued cold and dry.

Scenario 2: Low pressure slides through the channel, bringing heavy snow to much of southern Britain and perhaps the midlands.

Scenario 3: Low pressure tracks more northwards, perhaps bringing some snow at first, but quickly turning to rain and leaving us in mild air.

Wildly different scenarios, all dependant on the exact position of a low pressure.

0.13cms of snow You could make the world's tiniest snowball have some fun in that!

That should be 0.13 cms of snow- don't know what happened there! <blames freezing cold fingers after being in the garden>

I could end up with drifts 2mm high if I'm lucky!

The 06z GFS is rolling out. It is going for a snow festival for everyone from Wednesday/Thursday, followed by warm up from the south.

As long as you are wearing appropriate clothing for the 2mm drifts you’ll be fine.

You'd need a tiny shovel to clear the driveway!

Interesting view here from Brian Gaze on TWO - I remember that winter <feels old>

My gosh it’s bloody cold already!
And it’s going to get colder 😕

Looks like it’s going to be very sunny here next few days too!

Re the 0.13cm of snow, is it possible that Alexa is giving the quantity of precipitation. Here in Sweden the forecasts give anticipated snow in mm of rain, you multiply by 10 to get the actual amount of snow (roughly)

I'm off to put screen wash in the car at a higher concentration for winter weather. (Fingers crossed for a snow event in London)

I'm working outside this evening. It is officially f....g freezing 😅

I have 5 layers, 2 pairs socks, snood, scarf, hat, gloves... forecast says feelslike -4.

What will it feel like next week?! (Chilterns)

Working outside..l'm impressed, you must be well 'ard!

I wish I could enjoy a cold bright day..but I can only enjoy it from indoors!

My house has lost 3 degrees since I turned the heating off at 7pm 🥶
Dreading tomorrow morning to be honest.

I’m struggling to get the house to heat tbh. And the smart meter has helpfully decided to do something mad. I’d love to have used 16p of gas and electric but I don’t think it’s true.

Maybe Beedles!

The Met Office have a nice video explaining the snow potential next week.

I have Covid and can't get / stay warm. I've got three layers on and had the central heating on, but as soon as it went off the house went cold again (big column radiators that usually keep the heat in for a couple of hours) It has been zero degrees outside since 7pm and due to go down to -2 / -3 during the night. I've also just had a notification for snow flurries in the next couple of hours. I'm on the NE coast of England.