Good morning all! Really sluggish this morning, so please bear with me while I wake up!
Thank you for everyone's lovely words yesterday, that's very kind.
Im still catching up with what happened yesterday but the list of firebrigades that had to declare major incidents really jumped out at me. It was hot pretty much everywhere. But look where the major incidents were declared - the counties where temperatures were hottest in the country.
I expect that part of this was that those areas in general have been very dry for months. But there are plenty of counties with similar rainfall anomalies. So a very simplistic analysis suggests that the last two days of extreme heat in those areas had something to do with it.
That's not to say that other counties didn't have a a sudden jump in wildfire incidents, because they did. It's just that this list jumped out at me.
List is from www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62232654
Unfortunately the rain and storms today will be very hit or miss and some areas may see no rain at all. After that, in the south in general there is very little prospect of rain. I'm attaching the 35 day rainfall outlook according to GEFS for London (chosen as it is such a water stressed area). It shows the mean of the ensembles. Rain, what rain?
So make the most of any rain today and let's hope the models are wrong. Because it's only July.