We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

I just googled and it’s the first thing that came up, so maybe people know more

Air conditioners pose another direct problem for the climate. Many of them use refrigerants that are also powerful heat-trapping gases. Chemicals like hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) can be upward of 12,000 times more potent at trapping heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide.18 May 2022

Air conditioning is one of the prime contributors to global warming. Almost 90% of American homes use air conditioners, accounting for 6% of all the country's residential energy use. This air conditioning directly translates to a release of about 100 million tons of carbon dioxide every year.3 Jan 2022

Well parts of the equator may become hot uninhabitable deserts but the poles will become habitable.

Stand by for a war over which countries get to own the poles.

You can place a frozen bottle of ice (and apparently it's all the better if you put salt in the water) in front of a regular fan then you can achieve a cooling effect that will offer some relief but clearly that's only going to be a practical solution in domestic setting but worth thinking about as a cheaper and more eco solution in the home.

@OhYouBadBadKitten

Thanks for the thread. I remember when I was in my 20s I seemed to have a much higher tolerance of heat. But now I'm peri-menopausal I have to stay in a dark room when it gets over 23 degrees! I can't see me every going abroad again!

For aircon vs. fans I googled it (was trying to persuade DH to get one for sitting room), I was shocked. The results I got are from French sites (Que Choisir being a reputable example, it's our equivalent of Which? ).

We don't have air-conditioning at home or at work (school) and we manage, so no, everyone doesn't need it. 🙄

You realise the North Pole is ice, not land? It will have melted!

We're going to need a bigger boat.

Ok, we’ll just the South Pole then.
Just had to Google that.
Every day is a school day.

Ok well

Thank you LaChatte.

The met office have tweeted this graphic. Their definition of heatwave is www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/temperature/heatwave

The video on this link is an extremely good explainer of what we may see over the next 10 days. www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2022/july-heatwave
I can try to answer any questions that crop up from it if there are bits that don't make sense to people.

Thank you. I see where I live (Yorkshire) the BBC website is forecasting 29°c on Monday and Tuesday. Would you think that's an accurate prediction?

For people asking about blackout blinds you can get white blackout blinds, we have them.

We do too. :)

I wouldn't forecast precise temperatures so far in advance, for any one location. (or even on the day) but I think that mid to high 20s would be a reasonable ballpark.

Yes, it does seem to be that kind of temperature.

Thank you to everyone’s advice - The black out blinds I use currently are the black Gro Bag velcro suction type; but having had a look I’ve found white ones that, fingers crossed, may be better. Don’t know why I’d never thought about white ones and why they’re not often shown! Will give them a go

There's this film you stick on windows -not sure what it's called- that stops some of the UV rays from coming in (mine said that on the box anyway hahah), so in theory it should make the room cooler as you won't get as much of a greenhouse effect as before and it stops the room from acting as a black body. I don't know how much of an effect one would get though, if it's noticeable orjust not worth the money. I have it in my laundry room but I also have a heat pump in there so it feels like Siberia and I'm not sure if that film actually affects the temperature.
I think the shutters somebody posted up thread are probably best for keeping the house cooler. I like the steel ones that have these gaps and you can open/close to let the air in but still stop the sun from hitting the glass.

On another note, have you guys heard about the seeds warehouse in Norway that was supposed to be in permafrost soil but didn't even have snow last year? We're headed for doom! The only good part is that Putin's Gulags should end soon.

Thanks for the thread, OYBK. Always appreciate your weather threads.
Dreading work next week, my clinic room is south facing, 2 windows so it gets warmed up from early on and by afternoon it's awful. Mostly have the door shut so no through draft. One tiny fan...

They've just brought mask wearing back today as well, just in time for the heat wave!

Long term, I'm actually planning to move us all north once the DCs have left school. The south east is too hot for me, I grew up in Wales, though I did manage to get heat stroke there as a child so maybe I'm just not built for it!

There are currently several wildfires within an hour of our house. Despite the firefighters dedication homes have been lost. They're currently evacuating people in several villages as they don't think they'll be able to get in under control in time to save them. We have the 3x30 situation: 30⁰, 30km wind and less than 30% humidity, it's a disaster.

That sounds awful LaChatte. Scary.

You are welcome Ragz. That sounds uncomfortable and rather suffocating.

I do wonder how people with fevers are going to cope with the temperatures. Much of the south will be seeing temperatures around 30c and above as we go into the early part of next week. Some places may see 30c tomorrow.

I still can't tell you whether we are going to see the extreme temperatures that have been modelled over recent days at the back end of next week. GFS still is happy to introduce the concept. Nevertheless, some uncomfortable temperatures for many over the coming days.

Rain wise - for most away from the NW, no signs of real rain in the next fortnight.

Blimey @LaChatte that is scary.

Lachatte that does not sound good.

Here there has been a wildfire, started Monday 5pm ish, was mostly out on Wednesday, there were local reports of flames late Thursday in one spot. Cause unknown, may not be wildfire as is on military land where there were exercises recently,

Gone midnight, 24 degrees inside my flat, with windows open, indoor humidity 59%. I am not looking forward to the 30 degrees over the next few days OhYouBadBadKitten.