We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

was embarrassment for the lovely kind words, not for GEFS trolling us.

It is raining actual rain in Manchester! It's been so long since we had a decent bit of rainfall I actually wondered what that sound was.
The garden looks all fresh already, I hope we get a decent amount as everything outdoors needs a good soaking.

We had rain at 5 this morning, but it didn't really mean it. Walked to work in dampness.

It's rained a bit in my corner of Manchester tonight but not heavily. Cool enough inside to not have the fan on!

We had drizzle enough to make puddles on the substation roof. (Aka,the electric shed) slow and steady makes it more likely too sink in than run off and cause trouble.

While parts of Northern Ireland suffered from flash flooding yesterday, for much of England drought is becoming a real concern. The SE and E had just 4% of the long term average for July to the 19th July. England as a whole just 10%. Some areas have seen little relief in terms of rain since then and with very warm conditions and a strong drying breeze the situation is being exacerbated. There aren't any real indications of this changing soon.

Certainly round where I am the trees are showing distinct signs of heat stress and some are starting to shed their leaves. Go easy on your water use, we might be grateful we've done so later on in the summer.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1092995/Rainfall_and_river_flow_summary_13_to_19_July_2022.pdf

We had quite a bit of rain yesterday in the NE of England and some proper heavy rain last night. The gardens look so much better for it and all water butts are full to the brim.

We were out yesterday and noticed a couple of trees definitely looking more 'early September ' than 'late July' and the countryside, beautiful and golden as it was, looked more as it usually does at the dusty end of August.

We have had whole branches, very heavy ones, of trees everywhere round here just cracking and falling off. Everything else aside, I imagine this is pretty hazardous for pedestrians and on tree lined roads.

@OhYouBadBadKitten you are right to raise concern. I followed your previous thread early on, concerned about the impact on the NHS.

Sadly, my family member suffered from heat stroke on Tuesday, the NHS struggled to care for her because they were so busy and she ended up having a heart attack in hospital. She had no health concerns before then, was not overweight or vulnerable. It’s so very sad.

Heat kills.

Oh, that's so sad. Condolences to you.

@Fhuukccssghkkb I've got no words - sometimes there aren't any. That is really shocking and I am so sorry.

Certainly round where I am the trees are showing distinct signs of heat stress and some are starting to shed their leaves.

Same here (Scotland). A couple of my shrubs are turning colour and even some evergreens are dropping leaves.

The grass is yellow and the ground has widening cracks here in the Midlands. It's been trying to rain all day but nothing substantial, just very light drizzle on and off. We desperately need rain now.

@Fhuukccssghkkb I'm so sorry 🌷🌷🌷

The SE and E had just 4% of the long term average for July to the 19th July. England as a whole just 10%.

This is pretty shocking. Round here is totally parched. I will keep putting my washing up water on the garden....

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11028545/UK-heatwave-wildfires-broken-today.html

List of fires in UK. 19th July 2022. Daily Mail.

We’ve had a field fire in our village this morning. Thankfully it was in a stubble field and was spotted quickly. 3 engines there damping down and the farmer is in his tractor ploughing it up to stop the spread.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-62296443

London was close to a blackout during the heatwave says the report.

Cities need to prepare more for wildfires.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-62253581

Its something I'd not really considered before. Urban fire brigades generally have equipment to tackle urban fires. Grass, heath and forest fires need very different equipment and skill sets. There are, for example, lots of large green spaces within London. It's going to need a rapid change in approach.

some doipstick was smoking and flicking ash out of the window onto our tinderdry shared garden last week. people need educating about the dangers as well.

one of the trees has turned orange and is busily dropping all it's leaves.

Rumblings of drought in the press today. I'm remembering a post from earlier this year where friends who were farmers were already concerned.

ITV news good on drought and rainfall loss, both in UK and Spain - some areas of which have had no rain at all since April.

Was that no rain since April for parts of Spain @colouringindoors?

There is a chance of some light showers this morning in the south, but for many there it will remain again.

No doubt some in the Nw may be wishing we could share rain more fairly.

Not just the NW - this was last night in North Yorkshire

Yes, we had downpours yesterday (north yorks)

Sorry yes, I should have said more generally north. This pattern looks to continue.

On the Tuesday of the heatwave I woke at 2am; it took me a few seconds to realise the clock was off, and then that my fan wasn't working. As I lay there in the suffocating heat I remembered that my MIL was just up the road, seriously ill in hospital, and I was panicking that the heat had caused the power stations to fail.
I was gripped by a vision of a near future where this became the norm, and I knew that we are absolutely not prepared for this scenario. It's my teenage nightmare being played out.