Thunderstorm watch summer 2019

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Seems a bit silly having multiple threads going when it might be quite a lively summer. It looks lively again this week anyhow.

We have met office thunderstorm warnings for the next three days.
www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-06-23

Tomorrow storm potential looks to be areas away from the SE, including northern England and the Midlands, but I'm also keeping an eye on the SE for tomorrow night. By mid week the storm potential really grows though and by Wednesday we could have some really cracking storms.

Thunderstorms are notoriously difficult to forecast. Not only whether they will happen, but where they will happen. I'll see if I can find the link to the excellent met office tweet about that earlier this week.

It's all being driven by very hot air being drawn up from Africa, through mainland Europe, which could see temps close to 40C. We could see temperatures touching 30C by Thursday. It's going to be humid and uncomfortable I'm afraid.

It was immense here ! The sky was lit up in so many different colours,almost like sunrise in the distance. Hail like we've never seen ,like large slivers of glass. One sounded like it cracked one of our kitchen velux it hit so hard .
Ds absolutely loved it pups not so much ...

Massive thunderstorm in the north west about 2am. I got up and went to get my horses in at 3am I felt so bad for them (they weren’t remotely bothered when I got there!). I got soaked but the rain was warm! It was like being in Singapore. Barely needed my torch because of the lightning!

It woke me up at 2.45 here in South Yorkshire. The garden got a good watering. It didn't last long. I think it must have been moving quite quickly judging from the posts around the UK on here.

I love a good thunderstorm, as long as there is no damage caused by it.

I thought another warning might be issued ~ warning for thunderstorms from tomorrow through 'til Friday morning.

Warnings look to be a little more east than last nights storms. It tallies in very well with where we will have very high levels of CAPE (convective available potential energy) which is a crude measure as to how much fuel there is for the fire. This time it does look like the SW and western Wales will be spared.

I'm always slightly cautious about storm forecasts that appear to favour the east, unfortunately there seems to be a bit of a habit of them turning channelwards if they've come from France.

I'm a few miles inland across the Romney Marsh in S Kent, I have a direct view out to the channel and what often seems to happen is the storm gives us a light show over water but doesn't seem to come inland very far.

Of course we had nothing overnight so I'm looking forward to the possibility of some lovely storms tomorrow night.

Natural, can you tell me more about the wind please? How long did it last? Which direction did it come from and what did you observe?

The wind came slightly after the rain started, I guess it lasted half an hour or so. It was loud, whistling round the house like a strong winter storm and when it came the rain became absolutely torrential. With the constant lighting and thunder it was disturbing. I commented to DH it was like hell. I'm not sure what direction really, but my bedroom faces north east and I had to shut the windows to stop the rain coming in. I could feel the rain from my bed and it's on the other side of the room from the windows. Please tell me why this is interesting, I'm all agog!

I was interested to see whether it was a microburst. Pretty shattered tonight, give me a prod tomorrow if I don't explain more.

First sign of new storms growing?

Worth noting, if we develop storms tonight or this afternoon , they will probably be rather violent and as they won't be elevated as they were Tuesday night. Trear them with more respect. There's a lot more potential for frequent cloud- ground strikes than there was during those storms..

There was a house struck by lightning locally in the last storm. Is this quite common during a lightning storm? I know strikes are hitting 'something' but I don't usually hear about what they hit.

www.winsfordguardian.co.uk/news/17790954.video-firefighters-rescue-winsford-house-struck-lightning/

Haha I slept through that last storm completely! Booooo!

Any in London for tonight?

It is quite common, in the States in 2011 there were 186,000 claims on house insurance for lightning damage. I don't know the statistics for the UK.

Most lightning is intercloud (between thunderstorms clouds) or intracloud (inside the same cloud unit) but some is cloud-ground. That in general (but not exclusively) strikes protruding or tall objects whether they be trees, buildings, people etc.

I really really recommend this book as an easy to read book covering lightning safety, facts and figures and myths and folklore: www.amazon.co.uk/Lightning-Culture-Derek-M-Elsom/dp/1780234961/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&tag=mumsnetforu03-21&qid&sr

I’m sure we had a microburst in Kent a couple of years ago. Sudden black clouds and thunderstorm, torrential rain and the wind came up in seconds - so strong that it was difficult to walk against. I actually thought it was going to be a tornado and was screaming at DH and DD to get inside.

I had to google microburst. I’m not sure as it was the middle of the night and I perhaps wasn’t a terribly good witness. It was incredibly intense and not like a normal thunderstorm though.

Microbursts can cause as much damage as tornadoes and it's quite common for people to think there has been a tornado when it is straight line wind damage.

Storms popping up out west and over France.

I’ve only heard of microbursts from Twister: “No we got lucky - these were just downdrafts and microbursts.”

I bet you have to watch that film with a stress ball OYBBK; I find it full of BS even as a non-meteorologist!

Sun and cloud with a few drops of rain here now anyway, Surrey/Kent border.

Just heard thunder in Cheshire

It's gone a bit dull and cloudy

Worth noting, if we develop storms tonight or this afternoon , they will probably be rather violent and as they won't be elevated as they were Tuesday night. Trear them with more respect. There's a lot more potential for frequent cloud- ground strikes than there was during those storms..

@OhYouBadBadKitten what are the conditions that make the storms more likely to be violent?

Clouds beginning to build in my neck of the woods (greater manchester)

BBC says to expect something around 6pm for me. Lightning map is showing storm attempting to cross the channel but often they peter out before they make landfall so we shall see.

TORRO have issued a tornado watch on their fb page:
"TORRO TORNADO WATCH 2019/005

A TORRO TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 13:55BST on Thursday 25th July 2019

Valid from/until: 13:55 - 23:59BST on Thursday 25th July 2019 for the following regions of the
United Kingdom & Ireland:

Parts of E Wales

Parts of the Midlands

N & E England

S and E Scotland

THREATS
Tornadoes, perhaps strong; hail to 60mm diameter; wind gusts to 60mph; CG lightning

SYNOPSIS

Scattered elevated thunderstorms are initiating over Herefordshire and these will move quickly north, with a risk of becoming severe in the next hour or so as they become more surface-based. Other storms are likely to form over parts of the Midlands and N England, all moving north at around 40mph. Shear will be sufficient for storm organisation, including supercells - any supercell would take more of a NNE track. Low-level shear is expected to be fairly high, especially later this afternoon/early evening - enhancing the tornado risk with any supercell which can develop. There is a small chance of a strong tornado, given the shear/instability parameter space.

Large hail is also likely with any supercell which can form, perhaps 40-60mm diameter.

Other thunderstorms are forming near Hitchin and will also move N or NNE, perhaps becoming severe with attendant risks as above.

It should be noted that, as always, many places will miss the storms entirely - overall, the highest risk of the hazards mentioned above appears to be over parts of the N Midlands and N England.

Forecaster: RPK"