Snow watch!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I know it will seem quite crackers to start this when the weekend has been so lovely, but we are starting to get some model consistency on GFS for the potential for snow Friday night into Saturday as a northerly plunge looks set to take place.

Primary risk areas are obviously for hillier parts of Scotland and also Wales, but higher ground in the south and south east including over dartmoor and down the east coast may also see some sleet or wet snow.

I've still got snow showing here (Leicester) with the BBC, can see it on some of the models as well but nothing on the metoffice. I think they're still waiting - there's a low pressure system that's being 'a bit troublesome' at the moment as to which direction it's going to take so it might be tomorrow before they decide whether it's nothing or time to announce 'snowmageddon's coming!'

Ahh I don’t want snowmageddon now! Last week it caused chaos here. I need to get a flight on Thursday morning. Hope it stays away.

oh please say there's no risk of snowmaggwotsit in London or Essex....

Hmm, reading a few previous posts made me look at met office forecast. They don't suggest snow for me but BBC forecast is, "heavy snow" ?!

Yes BBC going for heavy snow across some northern areas The Met Office are not. They need to start showing my some consensus soon! They didn’t forecast our heavy snow last week, very annoying.

I've been away from weather models today, so looking forward to a proper look tomorrow.

It's all a bit of a nightmare, OYBBK ~ the models are struggling bigtime!
I'd say there could be snow showers anywhere this week (coming from a NW direction) but Tuesday night into Wednesday (depending on where this troublesome low goes), possibly heavy snow for areas from N. Wales, in a line across the Midlands to E Anglia, southwards? Thursday night into Friday might be another time to keep an eye on when it comes to snow.

Metoffice still struggling as well ~ this is the forecast for my area in the E. Midlands. Note the "relatively high uncertainty" and "probably mostly fine Tuesday and Wednesday." And that's for Tuesday-Thursday this week ~ only a few days away!

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:
Relatively high uncertainty for the period. Remaining cold throughout, with severe overnight frosts. Probably mostly fine Tuesday and Wednesday, perhaps with overnight snow. Potentially unsettled Thursday with more widespread snow.

Outlook for the rest of the country for this week and beyond ~ Metoffice think we've got a cold couple of weeks ahead.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:
Staying cold, with potential for disruptive snow in central and southern areas Tuesday into Wednesday, then perhaps more widespread rain and snow on Thursday. Some severe overnight frosts too.

UK Outlook for Thursday 31 Jan 2019 to Saturday 9 Feb 2019:
A widespread frost to start on Thursday, before cloud and outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow pushes slowly east or northeast, with some uncertainty. Friday will perhaps see further spells of rain and snow, before clearer, colder weather sinks south again across all parts. By the weekend, it looks like staying unsettled, with further spells of rain, sleet and snow, interspersed by brighter and showery interludes. It will be windy at times, with the risk of coastal gales. There is still a chance that even colder conditions may develop as we go through the early part of February with an east or northeasterly flow dominating, which could bring an increased possibility of disruptive snow in places.

UK Outlook for Sunday 10 Feb 2019 to Sunday 24 Feb 2019:
Cold or very cold conditions are likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds dominating. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow, as well as widespread and occasionally severe frosts, although the exact details remain very uncertain. In this setup, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the north and northwest. Despite the prevalence of cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible, most likely in the south, although the incursion of these introduce a significant risk of snow should very cold conditions become established.

Still checking both here. BBC says heavy snow Wednesday and Thursday, Met Office has light snow and sleet on Friday.

I am very invested in the weather this week, I am driving to see an elderly aunt who lives half way up a hill in the northern Yorkshire dales on Friday. Not far for me but I would hate not to be able to go.

Thanks Gloria and OYBBK this looks so hard to predict. They are saying on netweather they have never seen such a lack of consus amongst the models and forecasts with just a day or two to go.

The BBC still going for a more snowy situation, Met Office still aren’t. I’m waiting for my local Facebook weather guy. He predicted the snow for our area to the precise minute practically and got the amount correct when none of the other forecasts did. The Met Office should hire him!

Morning :)

I do think models are beginning to converge around a solution for Tuesday/wednesday - it really depends on how much of a low pressure forms and the path it takes as it deepens.

So a few snow showers today perhaps. More in the north west tomorrow, perhaps penetrating inland. Then Tuesday this uncertain area of low pressure forms.

At the moment GFS sends it though the bay of biscay. On its northern flank (that's us) we will have a mix of snow and some rain on its front edge.

Exact areas to be affected need to be watched carefully, but it could deliver quite a lot of snow from the midlands downwards - echoing what Gloria says the met office are saying. This looks at the moment to develop Tuesday afternoon/evening, reaching the south by the evening (rain to start with?) and continuing in the night.

Western Scotland and the NW and much of Ireland and Northern Ireland also appear to be at risk of snow on Tuesday.

Wednesday it mostly clears out, but perhaps more risk for Wales.

I'm not going to look too much into detail for Thursday yet while things firm up for Tuesday.

Kitten have been meaning to ask and saw the thread in Active - for the last 2 or 3 weeks the visibility where I live (semi rural SW Midlands) has been exceptionally clear. Any idea why?

Morning OYBBK

Just adding some thoughts from TheWeatherOutlook here and here.

borntobequiet, interesting question. Generally visibility is down to humidity and to low pollution. In winter it tends to be better under clear skies than summer simply down to the temperature - cold air holds less water vapour.

Weather warning for snow, Tuesday into Wednesday ~ just been issued by the metoffice.

Thanks!

Wednesday 00:00-06-00 showing as snow for West Surrey/Berks border on met office app. Lucky I am not working Wednesday this week.

We’re south Surrey and have a snow warning for Tuesday/Wednesday. At the moment it’s looking a bit warmer on Saturday which is when we need it not to snow!

Thank you for these weather threads; they’re so helpful. DH is also a convert and has amalgamated your names. “What does Glorious Kitten think?”

UKMO just issued a yellow snow warning

Ah great updates! Thanks guys. Pleased Met Office is getting on board. Whilst I was hoping for no snow, at least we can be prepared. I have my parents driving down from the North on Wednesday so hoping it clears through and the motorways are ok.

Beginning to look interesting for our trip to Derbyshire! Is it likely to settle and cause disruption on the roads?

Snow has arrived in Scotland.
www.snowgatecameras.co.uk

Thank you all for the updates!
Looks like we could be getting another snow dump in Oxfordshire Tues/Weds.

warnings

A little displaced from where I expected them.
Worth noting the wind warning down the east side too for today.