Snow watch!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I know it will seem quite crackers to start this when the weekend has been so lovely, but we are starting to get some model consistency on GFS for the potential for snow Friday night into Saturday as a northerly plunge looks set to take place.

Primary risk areas are obviously for hillier parts of Scotland and also Wales, but higher ground in the south and south east including over dartmoor and down the east coast may also see some sleet or wet snow.

That's very interesting Gloria. Especially as GFS seems to have pretty much cancelled snow for next week now away from Scotland or higher areas. ECMWF keeps us colder, but it does look precarious with upper air temperatures marginal for snow.
We just aren't tapping into cold air in the same way that we did last Feb/March.

It is indeed, OYBBK. I think I've read somewhere that the GFS is due to have an upgrade this month and that's having to be delayed because of the shutdown.

Interesting bit on the BBC website ~ Another Beast from the East this winter?

Some thoughts from TheWeatherOutlook.

I've just had a met office weather warning for tonight into tomorrow for ice and some snow showers. Is this right or are they being optimistic?

Depending on where you are, tapdancingmum, that's probably about right. Scotland's more likely to see snow showers, there might be the odd flake/shower further south but otherwise, it'll be ice for southern areas tonight and tomorrow.

(Weather warnings here.)

Will be interesting what the temperature does this afternoon. It's raining here (Leicester) at the moment but after the band of rain showing up here clears through, it's forecast for the temperature to go down.
We've had a high of 10C this morning but it's falling quickly and it's now 8.6C

It's cold here too gloria, it feels colder now than this morning

It wouldn't surprise me if there is a colder feel to things, gttia ~ think today is the last 'above-average temperature-wise' day for a while.

'Tis miserable here now ~ raining and down to 5.9C

The snow is still uncertain though I've read.

Those warnings do look quite realistic away from urban and coastal areas.
Mostly the riskstays in Scotland (apart from the odd snow shower) until Tuesday when there is a risk of a widespread event.

That's about right ~ there might be opportunities when it could snow in the next few weeks and it could happen just about anywhere but it isn't a certainty ~ it often isn't when it comes to snow!

I like the build up more than the event!

Interesting stuff with this afternoon's GFS run ~ precipitation-type chart for Tuesday (not to be taken too literally at the moment!)...

And Wednesday...

We will only get rain!

I don't know, gttia, if you're on the eastern side of the country, at the moment from Wednesday onwards, the GFS thinks that the wind will comes from the east so any showers could be wintry if it's cold enough. It's a week away though.....

Thanks so much Gloria. The snow looks to have disappointed from the forecasts I’m looking at (Bucks) so I’d given up hope. Nice that GFS still has it as an option for Wednesday.

I'm on the east, south east London.
Watching with interest!!

Am I right in my interpretation of those precipitation charts that the very light pink is only 1mm of snow?

My car was pebble dashed no less than 3 times by salt spreaders on the motorway about 4ish so looks like they are expecting it to be really cold and icy tonight.

I wouldn't take those charts too literally, ScarlettDarling ~ they're really not very accurate and there are other factors that have to come together before we get snow, let alone huge amounts of it. I just look at them as a rough guess by the GFS rather than a 'oooh it's definitely going to snow there and it'll give x amount,' especially as it's a week away at the moment!

Thanks Gloria. Snow makes me panic tbh, hate driving in it and I work a good distance away from home. Fingers crossed we don't get anything too drastic (although I think I'm a lone voice on this thread wishing that!)

Latest Outlook from the metoffice ~ even the experts aren't committing to timings/amounts when it comes to Tuesday!

UK Outlook for Monday 21 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 30 Jan 2019:

Cold weather will predominate throughout and Monday will start with a widespread frost. Most places will probably be dry and bright during the day but rain showers are likely in the southeast at first. It will be windy in northwest Scotland, with blustery showers and further snow on hills. The showers may well spread further south and east on Tuesday. These are likely to bring hill snow to many areas, and perhaps some snow at low levels for a time. The timing of this is quite uncertain though. Unsettled and generally cold weather will continue, bringing rain, sleet and sometimes snow. Snow is possible anywhere but more likely over northern and eastern areas and over high ground. Overnight frosts remain likely.

UK Outlook for Thursday 31 Jan 2019 to Thursday 14 Feb 2019:
Cold and sometimes very cold weather will still be in place for the extended outlook. It will be changeable though, especially at first, with spells of strong winds and rain, turning to snow at times. Overnight frosts will be common and widespread. Snow will mainly affect higher ground in the north, but there will be a higher risk than usual of snow at lower levels, even in the south. The details of any disruptive snow remains uncertain. With easterly winds predominating, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the northwest. Short milder and wetter interludes are possible too, most likely in the south, but with these comes an increased risk of snow and ice further north.

You might seem like a lone voice at the moment Scarlett but as we've found in the past, when the forecast of snow becomes more likely, there are often lots of posters who come on these threads saying that they don't like driving in snow and wondering whether they should stay at home instead of fighting their way to work/do journeys!

Sledge parking!