Potential very severe weather on Weds 17th/Thurs18th

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It looks as though we could have some potentially extremely nasty weather Wednesday night into Thursday. Note the word 'potentially' - not guaranteed.

A low pressure looks to undergo rapid cyclogenesis (deepening) as it crosses the uk, potentially bringing 80+ mph winds across large areas.

As ever at this stage the models are varying quite wildly, both in terms of extent of deepening and where the low pressure crosses. Some are quite extreme, some are just very windy. Please keep an eye on the forecasts over the coming few days. I'll update when I can.

I can't believe there was no warning issued and now they are saying there were gusts of 80mph! My weather showed up something stupid like 20mph!

DH's weather station registered 63mph at 4.40am (near Burton on Trent)

snowdrop where were you that you weren't covered by a warning?

Barbie that's very impressive given that home stations usually under read substantially.

old silver - nooooo!

Berkshire has an escaped wolf according to the news. Cage damaged by the wind at a Wolf Sanctuary so its gone off for a wander.

oh no! that's an oops! I hope they capture it humanely.

as ever, not sure if okay to ask about general weather as we seem to be chatting here....but the wildly inaccurate forecasts are such a pain, thank goodness for Kitten and Gloria!

I'm not at all sure how to plan anything - I don't do well in cold and can't run at all below a certain temperature as I just end up overusing my inhaler.

last night I went out for a run, it was shit freezing and that hadn't been reported so I was just stuck with it and feel crappy now (that's the steroid inhaler use rather than the cold I think).

now I've got a "real feel" of -1 in the day being reported on some websites for tomorrow! Is that correct...? North London here.

it was also reported for today and I've just been to the shops and it's not cold at all.

at the moment it seems like there is no real clue what the weather will be like even for the next couple of days?

jeez this winter has been so long!

I was also hoping to visit my friend's grave this weekend as it would have been his birthday. I don't have a car and it's about 40 mins walk from the station - fine in normal weather but some reports of heavy rain and sleet and others just dull and grey.

sorry, that was mostly just a rant.

sorry Kitten didn't see your earlier post

North London - there was a warning listed of strong winds but said gusts of up to 28mph or something equally rubbish.

those automated wind predictions can be really rubbish! I'd say the 'feels like temperature' probably is about right for tomorrow, but only if you are actually in the wind, not in sheltered spots.
I'm sorry about your friend :( saturday will be the best day this weekend but it will be cold. (perhaps the odd snow shower)

New batteries inserted, which was fun, up a ladder...still a bit breezy out there. But, it is sunny and clothes are drying. Just hope my whirlygig doesn't helicopter off.

Sounds of fence mending going on in the neighbourhood. My heavily weighed down plastic greenhouse is still there if a little imploded. Just off on a tortoise weed hunt now whilst it's still sunny.

Good work

Kitten, thanks.

I was hoping the snow shower story was rubbish. Meh.

OYBBK We live on a farm, (he is a farmer) so he stuck his wind thing on top of a barn! He's got all sorts of gadgets that can give historical and current data on temperature, wind direction and speed and rainfall but he can't do predictions like you and Gloria!

Netweather's precipitation-type chart for Sunday. Could be one to watch as the band of rain hits the cold air but looks like it could be a rather cold/wet/snowy/showery day depending on whereabouts in the UK you are!

Well that was an interesting night. I am 1,148ft up a hill and we got christ knows what sustained winds and over 80mph gusts. Thank goodness for earplugs! Although I do have to laugh at myself... in my knackered sleepy state when it woke me at 2am I pretty much channeled eeyore and decided that if the roof came off I'd simply take my duvet and go and sleep in the cupboard under the stairs.

You must have needed your sleep lubey!!

Barbie that's pretty cool :) is he a member of COL?

God what a night! Think I has about 2 hours sleep with the noise (Surrey), worrying about stuff in the garden and children crying about the above. Plus the cat mewimg to get out. Amd tbis was after a day of no hot water and no heating as the boiker was broken and I had a job ibterview to go to this morning! I would have appreciated a warning actually.

What I dont understand is that we recently had Storm Dylan and Storm Eleanor, warnerd in advance, but which barely registered here. Yet last night was seriously strong winds that kept people up, knocked things over and yet no real warnings and no named storm?

Flomper the naming is a joke.
Met Eireann named the storm the previous night Fionn, despite it barely impacting the UK. France have apparently named last night (todays) storm as David and I think the Germans have given it a different name.

The met office only name storms if they reach an amber warning. Unfortunately although Met Erieann and the Met office have agreed to name storms together, they have different agreed criteria.

Ironically a few days ago I was convinced that there would be amber warnings out, but then the models backed away from such a severe forecast. Last evening I feel they made an error in not putting out urgent amber warnings, given that by 10pm it seemed to be deepening faster than expected. I've not looked at the data to verify whether that is indeed true though.

I suspect they will be asking themselves questions as to what went wrong and what can be improved.

The website that was linked to above www.ventusky.com/?p=52.0;-0.7;5&l=gust is addictive, I keep looking at it, checking the speed of wind, currently getting v excited about storm at 67° N 26° W near Greenland.

It's truly fascinating to see it in realtime.

Yikes and 25 ft waves at 65°N 29° W .

I go and get a life

Full Spoon Have you come across this site. Sort of similar to ventusky but mostly windspeeds.

OYBBK I have never heard of COL, but that doesn't mean he hasn't (he might be a member for all I know, we tend to keep our interests separate!) I will ask him when I see him later. All calm here last night.

I think the Germans have given it a different name.

It's called Friederike in Germany.

I was on the West Highland Line yesterday and the train from Glasgow in the evening stopped for a bit just out of Tyndrum because there was so much snow on the tracks that the driver went outside to have a look. In the morning the track was clear.

So after two snow days for the kids here this week the school decided to open today.

Heavy snow started after 9am. School started sending texts at eleven saying school closing collect your child ASAP.

The ensuing chaos was like armageddon. Snow ploughs were heading into town as I was leaving.

Snow has now stopped and all the roads are cleared.

There must be a better way to do this.

More snow. Grr.

snow in north London. Fucking hell this winter.....!!!! Can someone knock me out till April please?