Snow watch 2017/18

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I wish you could have joint thread starters! Gloria and I will be hosting this years snow watch and tag teaming with amateur weather forecasts. When reading them, please bear in mind that we are both amateurs with busy day to day lives, but we will do our best.

Please remember snow is notoriously difficult to forecast in this country as it often falls under marginal conditions.
When a forecast matters please do check with the Met Office first.

After a taste of winter already for some in the east, this mornings GFS model sticks with the winter weather theme we’ve been noticing for a few days for late Thurs 7th onwards, with a significant low pressure looking to bring in some cold and potentially rather snowy weather. Indeed, there is the potential for this to be accompanied by some very strong winds.

At the moment GFS plays around with the exact location of this low pressure, so it is too early to say where any snow may hit, but most places away from the far west seem to be in the potential firing line at the moment.

If some of the charts come off, the weather could be quite disruptive next weekend.

Thanks OYBBK . It also affects whether I book star wars tickets or not, life or death stuff .

looks I made the mistake of wearing my winter coat and boots today. Nearly melted walking to work.

Have been lurking with bated breath 😊
We had snow last Thursday, we're in north Lincolnshire, on top of a hill, so do see some snow most years.
So, Met Office is saying we'll have some on Sunday, but net weather is very pessimistic and has given us 0% chance. Who do I believe?! 😬

Will be interesting to see what the temperature does today ~ currently 12C here in Leicester but expecting it to drop fairly quickly during the day.

Hope everybody in the warning areas stay safe.

Following
I love snow!

Pah! 9% chance for one measly hour on Friday in Somerset. That’s not going to get me a snow day :(

Sunday looks...interesting. If it drops just a little bit it'll get us. Currently showing as sleet on my met office.

tornado watch issued by TORRO.

“Valid from/until: 23:00 to 14:00GMT on Wednesday/Thursday December 6th/7th 2017 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Ireland:

TORNADO WATCH (red polygon)
Eire, N Ireland, SW Scotland, England & Wales, IoM, Channel Is

CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION (yellow polygon)
Remainder of Scotland

THREATS
Tornadoes; strong wind gusts

SYNOPSIS
A powerful Atlantic storm system will move south-east overnight towards NW Scotland, and then eastwards close to N Scotland on Thursday. Another low to the west of Ireland will fill into an open wave, along the cold front of the main system. This cold front will surge E and ESE across all of Ireland and the UK overnight and during Thursday morning. Strong low-level convergence along this cold front is likely to lead to strong low-level lifting, forming one or more narrow bands of heavy rainfall.

Strong wind shear and veer along the cold front may lead to the development of small-scale circulations along it, and brings the risk of a few brief tornadoes. A complicating factor is the shallow wave, which could disrupt the line close to its track (approx. western Ireland to mid-Wales to Suffolk), perhaps leading to a relative minimum in risk very close to it. Conversely, to the south of its path, there may be a higher risk. There are some similarities between this set-up and others which have produced multiple tornadoes. The TORNADO WATCH area is deemed to be where conditions appear somewhat more favourable for several tornadoes - for example, hi-res models showing pronounced wind veer over the front, as well as a well-marked line (or lines) of precipitation, as well as a narrow line of weak instability immediately ahead of the front.
Behind this front, and not part of this outlook, very strong winds are expected across central and northern Scotland. However, these are already dealt with via national severe weather warnings from the UKMO.

Forecaster: RPK. “

Hope everyone stays safe in the north.
I mentioned going to Center Parcs a few days ago... Our current plan is to travel up to Leicestershire on Sunday to stay with friends, and then on to CP Sherwood on Monday morning. I love the idea of snow, but a bit worried about the travel!

Might be a good move doing that FingerofFudge. Leicestershire's right on the edge of the weather warning but Sherwood is right in it, with heavy snow forecast from midday onwards for Sunday. So if you don't like driving in snow and can leave the SW early, might be a good idea as well. I don't know whereabouts your friends are but high up places e.g. Markfield (jct22 of the M1), Woodhouse Eaves, Loughborough seem to have weather systems all of their own and can be a bit 'middle of Dartmoor' like in snowy weather!

The rest of the week looks OK ~ going to be cold and there might be snow flurries but fortunately (or unfortunately, depending on your point of view!), you probably won't get snowed in!

Temperature's still 12.8C here ~ not dropping yet!

Well it looks like most the weather channels are in agreement there will be snow from tomorrow in some areas. I think there's still uncertainty as how far south it will go so not too hopeful here in Bucks despite my phone taunting me with a big snowflake for tomorrow and Monday.

It will be interesting to see how it all pans out. An exciting (if you like snow) start to the winter and it does look like the cold may hang around for a while with more potential for snow.

Hope everyone stays safe in the storm and snow. DH flying back from the US over night tonight so hoping airports/flights aren't disrupted.

Having just posted that ~ the rain has just become torrential and the temperature's dropped to 12.1C ~ guess this is where the cold starts!

[[https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8609-storm-caroline-hits-severe-gales-in-far-north-then-much-colder-with-snow
Netweather's thoughts on Storm Caroline and the cold weather.]]

Ooh Gloria I'm in Leicester too! Glad I missed that downpour, got back from the school run just as it started

It was a bit of a downpour, wasn't it!
Temperature's now down to 10.5 so that's 2C or so in the space of 10 minutes.

We had high winds and heavy rain over night.

The walk to work started windy wet and mild but the rain had stopped when I got to work.

There has been a lot of disruption on the roads round Manchester this morning - lots of people late to work.

I will wait and see what the weekend brings in terms of snow - I'm not getting my hopes up!

It sure was! I can't feel the dip in temperature yet as the heating is just cooling but I'm sure I will soon.

How's Derbyshire looking over the weekend? DH is a delivery driver and it scares the wotsits out of me, the thought of him driving that big van in snow and ice

yr.no website are predicting snow all day Sunday and a couple of days next week.

Sorry, that's where I am in North Lincolnshire.

forfucksakejanet (can't believe I've just typed that!) It's not looking that great ~ I'd be telling him to be really careful, especially if he's going up into the Peak District/high areas.

We're now down to 9C

BBC report on the Storm Caroline disruption.

It’s pretty wild in the Highlands this morning school run was fun. Quite a few schools closing or saying it’s parents call in sending in or not, a lot of schools cover bit (miles) catchment areas. Mine are in we are only a mile away so easy enough for us to get there.
Wind is noisy through the trees outside the house.

Updated weather warnings Bigger warning areas I think for Saturday and more of the Midlands/the South for Sunday.
(@FingerofFudge ~ you might want to take note of that if you're travelling this way.)

my cat is going bonkers,can she sense bad weatherim about as far south as you can get

Speculation on a page I follow on FB that the low on Sunday may shift South a bit but it's marginal, and more likely to be north of M4 corridor, would @OhYouBadBadKitten and @GloriaSmud agree?

Doubt it'll get me here near Gatwick