Snow watch 2017/18

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I wish you could have joint thread starters! Gloria and I will be hosting this years snow watch and tag teaming with amateur weather forecasts. When reading them, please bear in mind that we are both amateurs with busy day to day lives, but we will do our best.

Please remember snow is notoriously difficult to forecast in this country as it often falls under marginal conditions.
When a forecast matters please do check with the Met Office first.

After a taste of winter already for some in the east, this mornings GFS model sticks with the winter weather theme we’ve been noticing for a few days for late Thurs 7th onwards, with a significant low pressure looking to bring in some cold and potentially rather snowy weather. Indeed, there is the potential for this to be accompanied by some very strong winds.

At the moment GFS plays around with the exact location of this low pressure, so it is too early to say where any snow may hit, but most places away from the far west seem to be in the potential firing line at the moment.

If some of the charts come off, the weather could be quite disruptive next weekend.

It was good snow. That pic was sent to me by my neighbour asking if my snow shovels were at hand because that street is round the corner from us and she could get no further!

That looks like proper snow

We are north east. Had snow on Thursday so went sledging and built a snowman etc. All gone now bar a tiny lump of snowman

How much do you need?

We’ve already had half of the total snowfall we had last year. We had 12” in 24 hours last week. Our local ski hill has already opened.

Going by the latest GFS run, I think this is going to be a 'snow on high ground only but rain/maybe snow showers elsewhere' kind of event at the moment. Once the rain is out of the way though and the cold pushes through, it's going to stay for a while ~ could be a cold/wintry run up to Christmas

Moose ~ much as always!

It’s a difficult call Gloria isn’t it, I’d like to see that low pressure more over us. I don’t think Im quite as pessimistic as you on this yet.,The 850 temps aren’t too bad. The surface temps are marginal though.
At the moment, ironically, given what I said yesterday, the initial bout does seem to be a western affair, with Wales being hit pretty hard. Elsewhere, yes, I think you are right, hill snow and a mix of slushy icky stuff.

But for the beginning of winter, it’s not a bad scenario.

I'm just glad the temperatures are 'wintery' - it's hard work trying to feel festive when you're melting in your Christmas jumper in fifteen degree heat!

I've even been able to partake in mulled wine, which only works when it's nose-tingling cold.

Has it been a particularly cold start, or is this 'normal'?

My DCs are desperate for some snow but it's been in short supply in the SE the last few years. Been pondering the cheapest/easiest ways to travel for a few days for some but not come to any decisions yet.

Comparisn to average temperature

So far we are below the average December temperature.

Are we storm watching as well given that they can often bring snow, or just a lot of rain?

Friday this week and Fri 15th/Sat 16th look like days to watch.

Found this GFS chart viewer... works on desktop and mobile.
wxcharts.eu

Wow nannynick, what an excellent website. I guess at this time of year, we should be storm watching as well, especially with the temperatures from Thursday onwards as what falls from the sky could very well be something of a wintry nature!

OYBBK ~ I wouldn't say I'm pessimistic as such, just that this probably isn't going to be the snowmageddon for everyone that the GFS was forecasting a few days ago. Having had snow already last weekend though, like you say, it hasn't been a bad start to winter.

Netweather's thoughts on the coming week here.

And hopefully if there are clear skies, there's a 'supermoon' tonight!

It never is the snowmageddon that GFS goes for, apart from 2009/2010 when it uundercooked things if I remember correctly! There does seem to be quite remarkable model consistency across the last few runs though.

Nice link Nanny. Not seen that one before.

Cheers kitten and Gloria can't tell you how excited I am about this year's SNOW WATCH

Thank you kitten and Gloria! Love the snow watch thread. As much as I love snow, could really do without it next weekend! Will follow with interest how it pans out.

whats a slider in weather terms please?

Oh please please let's see some snow in the south east! Haven't had proper snow since my DS was 4 and he's now 9!! He's missed out on formative snowman making and sledging years. At this rate he will be a moody teenager before we get a proper fall again!

im looking at netweather forums and trying to understand them

I'm in the south east and at least 3 counties had snow a few days ago.

Not proper settling snow though. It's been years. My kids got given a sledge 4/5 years ago and we've not had chance to use it!

I always loved snow until the winter seven years ago when DS was born, and I was held captive by it whilst plummeting through the abyss of PND.

I'm hoping for wafty, fat, floating flakes and a lovely icing on the world. But please never again snowmaggedon.

Delatron we had sledging snow in the SE last* year. Settled about 6 inches deep.*

Really? Wow. We've had nothing significant for about 5 years in Bucks.

Delatron ditto for West Sussex. It was Jan or Feb 2013 when my DTs were 1 years old and we had proper, settling snow. They are now 6 and just don't know snow.

I’m in the Highlands we should be pretty much guaranteed snow but it’s been poor the last couple of years with last year being the worst.
I had ds2 that year as well Morris that year was hard going with a baby. Couldn’t carry him in case I fell couldn’t get a pram through it either.
We had a few days of wee flurries last week but it all disappeared pretty quickly. Fancy a good load of snow for a change.