US (and other places) Hurricane season

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It's very belated I know, I've been discussing the various hurricanes in another thread in the time I have recently, but anyway, better late than never. From t'other thread:

www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/054806.shtml?cone#contents Irma at the moment looks like it's going to slide into the Gulf of Mexico, grazing the west side of Florida. However, the GFS model has it turning earlier, so there is some uncertainty still. (as there often is)

Jose is expected to become a Hurricane over night tonight, but I don't think it will be as major as Irma due to outflow from Irma effectively choking it. However, depending on the path it takes it could still compound misery.

I'm more worried about the various Islands that Irma is traveling over rather than the potential for a US landfall, simply because they have the means to evacuate and more resources. They are going to be completely devastated. Though Branson is riding Irma out on Necker Island.

Achhh, OYBBK. It was opined that she might.

Is she back to Cat 4?

Not yet cozie. The eye is starting to reorganise and looking more formed again and it seems to have deepened a little.

absolutely terrifying but at the same time fascinating.
thanks oybbk and others for updates and explanations.

stay safe everyone

Darwin Award goes to this: www.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/florida-gun-owners-encouraged-apos-213111921.html

Madness. And when the thing starts to arrive properly, they'll be too terrified to do a thing in any case.

key west water levels

People on the south keys webcam keep coming to waters edge and taking selfies.... literally seconds after they moved huge waves crashed over the walls.... idiots

I don't know how long these webcams will be able to keep operating.

Mallory Square (where one of the live webcams is placed) is already looking to have problems with power fluctuations, judging by its lights.

Model for jose making people nervous. Could go up new England coast.

I got caught in a tropical storm in Boston many years ago, so know the possibility of even that is bad news.

Irma has slowed. Talk of the pressure forecast to drop. So might regain more strength. But for now still cat 3. It's also moved west again so eye might not hit Florida. Don't know if that makes a difference for when it does make landfall in the gulf though.

Morning all, I think Irma is a Cat 4 now. And yes, some models have Jose hitting the eastern seaboard. More info when I have it.

Watching as have family in fl

Yes, it's was a definitely a Cat 4 at the latest update. Path had shifted a tiny bit west again.

I hope they are ok Afresh.

wunderground update

I agree that it is both fascinating and horrifying in equal measures.

Pressure still dropping. Down to 928mb (with some recon saying it's slightly lower than that). This is bad as shows storm still intensifying.

Under 930mb is very bad news generally.

Flooding reported already in Miami Beach area prone to flooding. It's 2 and a half hours before low tide.

Models for Jose are all over the shop. Consensus, such as it is, is to loop the loop after which it's anyone's guess.

I saw a cnn clip from Miami showing the flooding.

If Irma stays to the west of the cone rather than coming inland I think it could be a direct hit on the Panhandle. A good part of the panhandle just to the west of the peninsula is uninhabited, apart from Tallahassee which is off the coast. I don't know how vulnerable Tallahassee would be.

Calman I'm trying to find a similar plot for the ECMWF model. That had a better handle on Irma than GFS did.

Best I can find for ECMWF

Control model run for 10 days out for ECMWF. I think that's Jose to the very far left, but as we know from other runs it could end up anywhere!

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Donna

Impact of hurricane Donna in 1960 also worth a read. Followed similar route through Caribbean (flattening St Martin) , Florida keys and up along the west coast before then heading east across Florida and back out into the Atlantic.

75% of home in the Keys destroyed. It was a cat 4. It hit the Keys around Marathon which is slightly to the east of Key West/Big Pine Key which is currently forecast to be hit by the eye (which is concerning as whilst land highest here if it's hit by eye that might well mean 'nowhere is safe').

Pressure for Irma lower than Donna at the moment and I believe the storm is bigger too.

Not pretty looking.

No not pretty looking at all! I have both friends and family in Florida, but they've now all evacuated. All very worried about their homes.

It must be such a worry for them Fox.

Thanks Red, that was interesting. Fox Miami

Only time I watch Fox is during hurricanes as they have such local stations.