US (and other places) Hurricane season

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It's very belated I know, I've been discussing the various hurricanes in another thread in the time I have recently, but anyway, better late than never. From t'other thread:

www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/054806.shtml?cone#contents Irma at the moment looks like it's going to slide into the Gulf of Mexico, grazing the west side of Florida. However, the GFS model has it turning earlier, so there is some uncertainty still. (as there often is)

Jose is expected to become a Hurricane over night tonight, but I don't think it will be as major as Irma due to outflow from Irma effectively choking it. However, depending on the path it takes it could still compound misery.

I'm more worried about the various Islands that Irma is traveling over rather than the potential for a US landfall, simply because they have the means to evacuate and more resources. They are going to be completely devastated. Though Branson is riding Irma out on Necker Island.

I too am watching Fox news - they just had a reporter in Key West itself from the area where my dad lives which is 10ft above sea level. About as high as it gets there. I do wonder how long they will be able to report from there though. Surely soon they have to go inside.

Cripes WiiFit, what a risk they are taking with the surge.

I was looking through twitter and found a clip of the aftermath in the BVI. I hope they don't get forgotten.

twitter.com/leonesidiventa/status/906811243167698946

Eric Holthaus‏*@EricHolthaus*

Irma's central pressure has fallen to 928mb. Only 6 hurricanes in U.S. history have been more intense at landfall. Last: Katrina (2005).

Tom Ward‏*@DeliaandDobie*
New recon shows #Irma's pressure now 924 mb. Andrew hit Eliott Key at 926 mb. By time Andrew got to Homestead, was 922 mb. Awful close.

Note this is not from official source so can't be verified but part of a pattern of reports overnight and general feeling that pressure is still dropping so not unbelievable.

The lower the pressure the stronger the hurricane.

www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hurricane-irma-records-broken_us_59b48a93e4b0dfaafcf84e6a?ncid=engmodushpmg00000004
Here Are All The Records Irma Has Broken So Far, According To A Meteorologist
One hurricane expert described Irma as a “heavy hitter.”

As article mentions @philklotzbach a good follow on twitter if you are a nerd for general hurricane information relating to Irma.

My family is from St Pete (I lived there 1999-2007). Brother, grandparents, uncle and mum are all there. None of them have evacuated as the storm track came too late and they were afraid of getting stuck on the roads. (They all live in non-evac areas not usually prone to flooding). I've just read the article you posted and it's terrifying. I'm so worried about them :-/

Very limited info coming out of Varadero so far but does sound as though it was hit much harder than expected, and was not fully evacuated. Extremely worrying wait for the families of those who are there.

It really is true that Tampa bay has been charmed up to now. So many people haven't evacuated because it seemed so unlikely we'd finally get a direct hit and people didn't want to clog the roads when there were others coming from the south who were at the time deemed more at risk.

CNN has someone reporting live from Key Largo. Are they insane? Also not promoting sensibility. Something I never thought I'd say but Fox are being a lot more responsible!

I was about to preen at being ever so responsible before I realised you were talking about Fox News.....

As you were

Wishing your family the best of luck heroine

Fox have said no more reporting lower than Florida City, they must have moved off the Keys now btw.

Interesting that the east coast will get the storm surge first because of the way the storm pulls the water up then as it goes past it pulls the water up the west coast.

God I hope everyone is heeding the warnings they are giving out.

I'm sure you are also very sensible fox .

I have to say that there was someone complaining about how it was all being over-sensationalised.

The reality is that the history of similar comparable storms is not good.

You have official sources of information saying things like 'its not known if they Keys will be survivable'. And first responders and journalists have bailed.

This just doesn't happen unless it really is that bad.

6am official update for pressure at 929mb.

This article from last night is from Florida Keys.
www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article172343707.html
‘Like the Titanic right now:’ Irma begins to lash Key West as holdouts brace for the worst

This was the paragraph that got me most:

At La Concha hotel, widely considered the safest and highest structure on Key West, Marty North puffed on a cigarette outside a side-street lobby and watched the winds whistling down Duval. He and his partner, Chris Bradley, live in an old but unsafe Conch home, and they got lucky to get a room at La Concha — rooms that opened up when TV reporters packed up and left ahead of the storm.

There's other pretty jawdropping and utterly tragic stuff in the article, but that was the one that really got me most because it gives you a sense of just how bad it is expected to be.

Local Fox News reporter just:
"You just need to rely on faith"

Thanks MrsSlant

I keep putting myself in the position of all the people who live in Florida, Cuba, Leeward islands. Even if your family survived safely, how awful must it be to lose your home and all your possessions? I'm guessing that the excess for insurance will be very high. This is potentially going to cost families a lot of money, money that they can ill afford.

For those of us who enjoy some of the most mild and stable weather in the UK, I don't think we ever quite appreciate what it's like for the very environment you live in to threaten your whole life.

NY Metro Weather‏*@nymetrowx*
Northern eyewall moving into the Big Pine Key with lightning and 130mph+ winds

No we've no idea fox, I've been to America once and we stopped off the motorway (interstate?) because the weather was appalling and we couldn't even get out of the car because of the magnitude of the rain. Then the lightening started and it was jaw dropping. Apparently we missed a tornado, thank goodness. I've never seen a storm like it since and that was 30 years ago. We really don't do weather here, much as we are obsessed with it.

I'm learning so much about the geography of Florida now, it's very low lying isn't it, I didn't realise the Keys are over 100 miles long as well so the reporter in Key Largo is a long way from the people starting to really feel the brunt of it. I feel a bit grubby being so fascinated but, hopefully, this is a once in a lifetime occurrence and modern technology is giving such amazing insight into what is happening and why. Wish I'd done geography and stuff like that at school now. Plus I've done my back in so I'm stuck on the sofa so it's distracting me from the pain!

Oh gosh red, that's terrifying, I hope the people who were too stubborn to leave have gone to the 'last resort' school shelters. The emergency woman on TV said there are people on boats who wouldn't leave them.

I did geography until A-Level. My knowledge of the Florida's geography isn't all that. I knew nothing of the Florida Keys before this.

I like to know the history and science of it all as much as 'the drama'.

I don't think its 'grubby' given that such significant events have impacts on us all in indirect ways and how this is part of a picture of global warming.

Its dramatic events that tend to focus the minds of less interested people when it comes to major issues that otherwise aren't in their minds.

Just listening to Fox saying that 5 of the 10 bridges in the Keys went in 1960's Hurricane Donna.

I am sorry, this might be a stupid question

But how does a storm surge work - I saw a video on Twitter where someone was walking where the ocean should have been. Does the hurricane literally suck up the water and take it along with it? It is really scary for all the people there.

was watching fox with dc for a bit before the eye reached the keys.

we were most shocked at the advice to hunker down but to keep sturdy shoes on in case you need to run for other cover.

storm surge: a bit like blowing on your soup to cool it. so the wind is pushing the water with it.

which is why you saw the waterless bays in other areas. those are on the other side of your 'soup bowl'

Combination of things

1. The air pressure in a hurricane is low - yes, it literally sucks up the water into a dome under the low pressure. That's one effect.

1. But also, The winds can drive waves 'ahead', pushing water as well.

So you add the effect of the low pressure (which is like an additional tidal effect) plus a high tide, plus the pushing of the wind, and that raises the water level.

Then you add waves on top.

It's IMMENSELY destructive, far more so than wind. A cubic metre of water weighs a ton. There are god knows how many cubic metres/tons of water, filled with debris, and that's what does the real damage. It can literally scour buildings off their foundations

I think some people don't realise this - they think they will be ok with the wind - yeah they probably will, but no one survives a 15foot storm surge filled with debris. That's higher than a one storey house.

Just seen this in NY Times

Southwest Florida could see a storm surge of 15 feet above ground level, and entire neighborhoods stretching northward from Naples to Tampa Bay could be submerged

<a class="break-all" href="https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/09/10/us/hurricane-irma-florida.html?referer=mobile-nytimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/mobile.nytimes.com/2017/09/09/us/hurricane-irma-florida.amp.html?amp_js_v=0.1&usqp=mq331AQCCAE%3D" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">mobile.nytimes.com/2017/09/10/us/hurricane-irma-florida.html?referer=mobile-nytimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/mobile.nytimes.com/2017/09/09/us/hurricane-irma-florida.amp.html?amp_js_v=0.1&usqp=mq331AQCCAE%3D

The 'good' news for Key West is that atm, the natural underlying tide level is at low tide. The peak of the storm surge would have been higher if the eye had hit at high tide.

The bad news is somewhere on the coast of Florida is going to get the high tide / storm surge double whammy instead.