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Weather

US (and other places) Hurricane season

477 replies

OhYouBadBadKitten · 06/09/2017 08:12

It's very belated I know, I've been discussing the various hurricanes in another thread in the time I have recently, but anyway, better late than never. From t'other thread:

www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/054806.shtml?cone#contents Irma at the moment looks like it's going to slide into the Gulf of Mexico, grazing the west side of Florida. However, the GFS model has it turning earlier, so there is some uncertainty still. (as there often is)

Jose is expected to become a Hurricane over night tonight, but I don't think it will be as major as Irma due to outflow from Irma effectively choking it. However, depending on the path it takes it could still compound misery.

I'm more worried about the various Islands that Irma is traveling over rather than the potential for a US landfall, simply because they have the means to evacuate and more resources. They are going to be completely devastated. Though Branson is riding Irma out on Necker Island.

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RedToothBrush · 09/09/2017 17:57

www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/posteverything/wp/2017/09/08/we-cant-leave-florida-but-we-cant-stay-either-help-us/
We can’t leave Florida, but we can’t stay either. Help us!

Another good read on the practicalities (and politics) of evacuation.

Official advice in many places now is if you are planning to leave Florida and you haven't its too late. Find somewhere safe on high ground.

Four shelters of 'last resort' have opened in the Keys, but there are no services, supplies or personal there. First responders and military have left to the shock of some. The keys might will be cut off, so even if you aren't flooded out you are in a lawless situation with no guarantees of when outside assistance might be available. No guarantee of clean water, no sanitation, no power. They are only to ride out the storm and will close again after topical storm conditions have ended (quite how they will kick people out, I don't know). The shelter of last resort in Key West is said to be 'packed'.

Frankly given the reports of near anarchy and it being dangerous for women to go to the toilet alone in New Orleans shelters which were cut off by flood water, that prospect alone would terrify me. Imagine fights for food or water breaking out?

OhYouBadBadKitten · 09/09/2017 18:14

That's horrendous Red.

Looks like Irma will restrengthen again. Interestingly it has followed the ECMWF predictions pretty much rather than the american gfs model. ECMWF seems to be consistently more reliable for hurricane forecasting as far as I can see.

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Wiifitmama · 09/09/2017 18:23

I know Red - I can't understand the mentality of my dad's friends who stayed. I have met them. They are very nice normal people. What makes them think they can out wit this storm?

Fixmylife · 09/09/2017 18:27

Red

That article is truly terrifying, the scale of what could happen is unimaginable

<a class="break-all" href="http://go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/health/environment/tampa-bay-climate-change/?utm_term=.7ae6fb92cd1a" target="_blank">https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/health/environment/tampa-bay-climate-change/?utm_term=.7ae6fb92cd1a

JennyHolzersGhost · 09/09/2017 18:48

Glad to find this thread. Am worried for the mother of a friend of mine. She is over 90 and in Tampa, although on relatively high ground at the home of one of her other children, which is not subject to an evacuation order. The rest of the family are also there. The possible loss of power, rising waters etc are still an extremely worrying prospect.

RedToothBrush · 09/09/2017 18:50

The wiki on the 1935 Labour Day Hurricane is good. It was marked by controversy over the deaths of many WWI veterans, many of whom had what we would call PTSD and were struggling to cope with life. They frequently would get into brawls on pay day and were generally regarded poorly by the State.

Back in 1935 of course there were few warnings with no satellites. They knew the storm was coming because of its passage through the Caribbean but did nothing.

One of the people who would have been responsible for evacuation was on holiday and the long term strategic plan to evacuate by train had a major flaw because there was a misunderstanding. The authorities though that should one be needed it could just be sent but the reality was it need a couple of hours preparation before it could depart.

By the time the order to evacuate was given it was too late. The train got there and picked up vets as the storm was already approaching. The carriages were blown off the track and only the locomotive (which was heavier) remained on the track.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_Labor_Day_hurricane

There are a couple of other interesting facts in this. Firstly it followed a course very similar to the one Irma is tracking. It was one of only three cat 5s to hit the US in the 20th Century (Andrew in 1992 and Camille in 1969 are the other two). So as far as comparisons go, its about as close as we have within recorded memory.

Secondly the hurricane was written about by Ernest Hemingway. He had ridden the storm out at his home in Key West. The house is now a cat sanctuary and there are 10 people staying at the sanctuary to look after the animals. It was built in 1851 and has survived two centuries of storms. It stands at 16ft above sea level and is one of the highest points in the Keys. If you were going to ride it out, its probably where you'd choose. The problem? The prediction are for up to 20ft storm surges.

Thirdly, the Labour Day Hurricane was much smaller than Irma. Its eye was Its eye was eight miles across and the fiercest winds extended 15miles off the center, making it smaller than Hurricane Andrew.

Of course neither the Keys nor Tampa were as populated and built up in 1935.

But as I say as a historical reference point this is the closest there is.

The Labour Day Hurricane remains the one with the lowest pressure and highest winds recorded in the US.

JennyHolzersGhost · 09/09/2017 19:20

Just having a look on Twitter and it seems that the major Cuban resort of Varadero is set for a direct hit. Also appears that people were evacuated to there from other parts of the coast and that British tour companies didn't evacuate their customers. They seem to have been expecting Irma to turn north before now. Could potentially be a nasty situation.

cozietoesie · 09/09/2017 19:39

*Fix
*
Thanks for the link. That WaPo article is very sobering indeed.

cozietoesie · 09/09/2017 20:56

This Beast piece is several hours old. It's still worth reading, though.

Irma: Three possible scenarios

GloriaSmud · 09/09/2017 21:03

There's quite a good interactive weather page here (takes a little while to load.) The whole site is quite interesting as it gives all the information that is being given out to residents.

The Hurricane Irma stormtracker website has been updated regularly and now has a few Florida webcams.

cozietoesie · 09/09/2017 21:17

Thank you, Gloria.

cozietoesie · 09/09/2017 21:26

YouTube also has some live cams which can be viewed. I just spent two minutes watching one where all the beach water has disappeared - so what do they do? They start heading out to see how far the new 'land' stretches. From the look of it. Shock

OublietteBravo · 09/09/2017 21:27

There is (understandably) a lot of focus on Florida. But I'm wondering how Cuba has fared - Irma was a cat 5 when she made landfall, so I imagine there is some serious damage.

On a brighter note, it looks like Jose is veering away from land and will mostly remain over the Atlantic. Hopefully causing relatively little damage despite being a cat 4 hurricane.

cozietoesie · 09/09/2017 21:45

Yes indeed. The 'experts' are also saying that while she's now been downgraded to a 3, she could likely 'pick up strength' again when she's left Cuba.

I don't understand hurricanes. (Sorry OYBKK.)

cozietoesie · 09/09/2017 21:45

OYBBK. Blush

TheDrsDocMartens · 09/09/2017 21:56

This is also showing up how bad my geography is Blush

cozietoesie · 09/09/2017 22:05

It will likely be improving hourly, I fear, TheDrs.

TheDrsDocMartens · 09/09/2017 22:09

Yes. If Cuba was where I thought it was it would have been safe Sad

RedToothBrush · 09/09/2017 22:17

Looks like there are some nutters who are trying to make themselves famous on webcam in the Keys. Absolute morons.

OvariesBeforeBrovaries · 09/09/2017 22:19

My friend is in Orlando at the moment. I thought she was in Disneyland Paris but she sent me a picture of manatees and I realised she's in Florida Shock Hopefully she'll be safe in her hotel, I'm not sure how badly it's supposed to hit Orlando.

ItsAllAboutThePace · 09/09/2017 22:26

the webcam for florida beach!!!!

there were people walking.....storm increased, now i can't see a thing!!

RedToothBrush · 09/09/2017 22:27

The webcam for Southern Most Point Key West is the Darwin auditions.

DamsonGin · 09/09/2017 22:30

I think it's all going to look a bit more scary when we (in UK) wake in the morning and it's hit.

Did anyone see the video of the beach in the Bahamas? I guess if there's a storm surge, the water's being pushed from somewhere.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 09/09/2017 22:44

Irma is starting to re intensify :(

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cozietoesie · 09/09/2017 22:59

Yes. That's the one I mentioned upthread, Damson. Totally ununderstandable behaviour.