US (and other places) Hurricane season

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It's very belated I know, I've been discussing the various hurricanes in another thread in the time I have recently, but anyway, better late than never. From t'other thread:

www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/054806.shtml?cone#contents Irma at the moment looks like it's going to slide into the Gulf of Mexico, grazing the west side of Florida. However, the GFS model has it turning earlier, so there is some uncertainty still. (as there often is)

Jose is expected to become a Hurricane over night tonight, but I don't think it will be as major as Irma due to outflow from Irma effectively choking it. However, depending on the path it takes it could still compound misery.

I'm more worried about the various Islands that Irma is traveling over rather than the potential for a US landfall, simply because they have the means to evacuate and more resources. They are going to be completely devastated. Though Branson is riding Irma out on Necker Island.

It looks like the expected path of Jose has shifted East. Hopefully this means that it won't hit all the places Irma has battered.

If the centre of the storm tracks up the west coast of Florida, it might miss Miami but it will hit Tampa. OK Tampa is not as big or as famous as Miami, but 3 million people live there. How is that anything other than catastrophic?

Amalaliaa I fully agree. Although it will probably be a cat 3 at that point I think Tampa would be really vulnerable to flooding and a Cat 3 storm is still exceptionally nasty.

News said Irma is 35 miles wide!!

I think it is just the centre that is 35 miles wide, the force will be felt much wider than that.

Irma is huge - didn't news reports earlier in the week say it was roughly the size of France?

Here you go, french.

"Hurricane-force winds currently extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center of the storm and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km), the US National Hurricane Center said."

the tidal surges could effect wider, I think.

people see what they want to see. I read somewhere, one of you linked to, that it was likely that climate change did not have as big an effect on this particular storm as some people are saying, but that it also did not have no effect. it would have been a bad storm anyway.

problem is that no-one can say which storm occurs because of climate change, just that things are likely to get worse, more frequent and it is all about trends... which makes it all a bit easier for the deniers to keep denying. because they want to sell oil or something else

unless it effects people directly they do not seem to care

I saw the size of France

Direct hit on Tampa potentially worse than Miami. I've link to this elsewhere but the article is really troubling.

www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/health/environment/tampa-bay-climate-change/?utm_term=.7ae6fb92cd1a
Tampa Bay's Coming Storm

It was written in July.

The area is due for a major hurricane, and it is not prepared. If a big one scores a direct hit, the damage would likely surpass Katrina.

The other key thing about Irma is not just that it's cat 4/5 but the sheer size of the storm. This is a good comparison between Hurricane Andrew which was last significant cat 5 hurricane to hit Florida and hurricane Irma. This means that the devastation is likely to be far more widespread meaning rescue efforts are going to be harder and there is more rain contained in the storm.

Andrew also tracked east to west rather than south to north like Irma which make it a much more dangerous prospect purely from the point of view of the geography of Florida and routes in and out.

Irma is a monster not just because she's cat 5 but because she's the size of Texas and because of the angle she is going to hit Florida.

Dear .Goodness. She's bigger than Florida.

The Associated Press @AP
BREAKING: Weather forecasters say eye of powerful Hurricane Irma likely to hit Florida Keys, SW Florida, and Tampa area on Sunday.

One of the warnings I saw last night from an official source regarding Irma was to evacuate because they feared a repeat of Gavelston 1900 in the Florida Keys.

I can't remember the agency or I'd link to the actual warning, but it was genuine.

The Gavelston Hurricane remains the single largest loss of life due to a natural disaster in US history. In the region of 6000 died.

Irma combines the twin horror of a cat 5 in the keys with the related storm surge AND a direct hit on Tampa AND is the size of Texas.

Get that into your mind and you can start to see why the authorities are shitting themselves and why it is just so unprecedented.

So Disneyland is evacuated as well?

I think they've closed this weekend.

Disney World (Disneyland is in CA) isn't evacuated, with the exception of Ft Wilderness Campground & Cabins, it closes at 2pm today. All guests at FW must be gone or have moved to hotel rooms in the resort and their RVs parked in a big lot (away from trees) by 2pm. People in resort hotels will be sheltering in place. They're closing the theme parks this evening through Monday.

watches and warnings

I am a bit late to this thread as I only just saw it but my dad lives in Key West. They are not there at the moment (they have another place in Mexico which is where they are now) but it is looking very likely that the hurricane will do serious damage to the keys. They have lived there since 1996 and there have been so many near misses in that time but they have always been lucky. It looks like their luck may well have run out this time. Their house is 10ft above sea level - one of the highest parts of the island. But I think wind damage will be immense and storm surges could well reach them.

I hope their property survives ok wiifit. I'm glad they aren't there at the moment.

Thanks. Just for anyone interested in the financial side of living in a hurricane area - they have hurricane insurance for their house but the deductible (excess) is $50,000 so it is really only a help if you literally have to rebuild. They have a second property on the island of much lower value that they rent out and that one has no hurricane insurance as the premiums are so high, it is not worth it over time. This is the reality for many people there I think.

They have friends there who have stayed put in a "safe building" despite the mandatory evacuation. I can't even imagine what a "safe" building is!

No such thing as safe in the keys. Official line is they are not sure if it's survivable to stay. It's not the winds that's the issue but the floods and they thing no land in the keys will be high enough. It's terrifying.

It's weakened to a Cat 3, it seems Cuba did slow it a little. It may re strengthen again. Still very dangerous.

This is the latest on the Keys

Staying behind on Florida islands is 'almost like suicide'
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-41211955

Florida gun owners encouraged to 'shoot the storm' and fire their guns at Hurricane Irma
www.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/florida-gun-owners-encouraged-apos-213111921.html

Sounds like a plan...

good grief slep!

I'm astonished that anyone would stay on the Keys. Have they not seen the news? I think some people think they must have magic powers.