US (and other places) Hurricane season

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It's very belated I know, I've been discussing the various hurricanes in another thread in the time I have recently, but anyway, better late than never. From t'other thread:

www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/054806.shtml?cone#contents Irma at the moment looks like it's going to slide into the Gulf of Mexico, grazing the west side of Florida. However, the GFS model has it turning earlier, so there is some uncertainty still. (as there often is)

Jose is expected to become a Hurricane over night tonight, but I don't think it will be as major as Irma due to outflow from Irma effectively choking it. However, depending on the path it takes it could still compound misery.

I'm more worried about the various Islands that Irma is traveling over rather than the potential for a US landfall, simply because they have the means to evacuate and more resources. They are going to be completely devastated. Though Branson is riding Irma out on Necker Island.

Yes Weather Underground confirms that the models have shifted slightly west. Good news for Miami, worse news for northern Cuba.
www.wunderground.com/cat6/extremely-dangerous-cat-4-irma-headed-florida

Heard of two people in Florida now plus one going there this weekend. Why?

It's likely to weaken a little faster if it is taking the western path.

Docmartens goodness knows why.

Calman thats a really good discussion.

Weather Underground always provide a good summary of the various models.

cozie, just read that Newsweek piece, and the first comment underneath is this:

Derk Cooper. Doctor at NHS National Services
Climate change is a natural cycle and they use it to get money from companies and ordinary tax payers. Climate change has become a global business employing thousands

That employer name looked odd to me so I clicked through and got commenter's Facebook page. Claims to be a "gynocologist"[sic]. URL is www.facebook.com/gigglerdiggler

So poorly faked bot account in action, I'd say.

I only bother mentioning this because we were talking about such stuff above. It's common or garden.

Urgh, wrong thread, sorry.

Oh, actually is this thread. Just forgot where we were discussing climate change denial.

Interesting, Perking. Thanks.

noaa update another slight shift westwards. Good for the east coast of Florida, bad for everywhere else. Back up to a cat 5. Georgia may get a bad go of it too.

Katia has weakened to a tropical storm, so presumably this is good news for Mexico (who have enough to be dealing with following yesterday's earthquake).

Irma strengthening back up to category 5 is worrying - poor Cuba.

wunderground update contains some scary scenarios.

I am beginning to wonder though, if Irma keeps jigging to the west a bit more whether although this would be better for the peninsula, whether it could be a panhandle/Alabama/Georgia issue which could be very bad news for those who aren't as prepared as they might be. That is complete speculation after seeing a outlier couple of track runs that follow that course.

Path of Jose next to Irma.

Poor Cuba, Irma was Cat 5 when it made landfall there.

Apologies if this is a stupid question but what happens to the people stuck in tailbacks? They've been told to evacuate, they've done as told and now they're stuck in their cars on the road; surely that's even more dangerous than still being in their homes?

If you are talking about Florida, they have a lot of experience of hurricane evacuation. At a certain point, if people are still stuck on the road, police will direct them to local shelters.

In Palm Beach County, for example, they have a curfew from Saturday afternoon until Monday. The storm is due to hit there early Sunday.

The evacuation during Hurricane Rita was responsible for many deaths. www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Hurricane-Rita-anxiety-leads-to-hellish-fatal-6521994.php article]]

I think that because of what happened during Rita there are much better procedures in place (and led to reluctance to evacuate Houston during Harvey)

article doh.

Just seen that they've managed to evacuate all of Barbuda ahead of Jose. Not sure where to, Antigua? Somewhere with buildings that currently have roofs I hope at least.

Any hope that the hurricane is changing track to hit Trump's Mar a Lago travesty house? I think the funniest/most frustrating comment I've seen is that people who call climate change scientists liars have put their trust in them when the same scientists have predicted the hurricanes.

Thank you for all the climate change info/links.

I must look up where Mar A Lago is when I get home...

I was under the impression that the western shift still meant trouble for Miami as that side of the storm had higher gusts of up to 150mph even though it avoided the eyewall

I've not been watching much news so behind with what's happening but..... the whole of Barbuda has been evacuated? Every single person?

Red I think it may have shifted far enough west to avoid that issue now. I hope so. It looks like Cuba managed to miss the worst of it too, with the centre being a little away from where it was thought to be.

I think this winter, when people moan about forecasts that aren't accurate, this is a very good demonstration of how it's impossible to forecast the exact path of something even as well forecast and large as Irma.

We have a slightly weird issue now that there are various trolls saying this is overblown, it's been hyped up by climate scientists etc etc. If this does (and we really really pray it does) miss Miami, they are going to use that as ammo to justify their denial.

Yes Babuda is being evacuated completely, but it has a population of 1,600 (plus tourists) which is the same as a medium sized West End Theatre.