US (and other places) Hurricane season

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It's very belated I know, I've been discussing the various hurricanes in another thread in the time I have recently, but anyway, better late than never. From t'other thread:

www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/054806.shtml?cone#contents Irma at the moment looks like it's going to slide into the Gulf of Mexico, grazing the west side of Florida. However, the GFS model has it turning earlier, so there is some uncertainty still. (as there often is)

Jose is expected to become a Hurricane over night tonight, but I don't think it will be as major as Irma due to outflow from Irma effectively choking it. However, depending on the path it takes it could still compound misery.

I'm more worried about the various Islands that Irma is traveling over rather than the potential for a US landfall, simply because they have the means to evacuate and more resources. They are going to be completely devastated. Though Branson is riding Irma out on Necker Island.

Jose may still be threatening the eastern seaboard.

oh shit.

Oh my goodness.

NOAA update on Maria says she's set to intensify, perhaps more rapidly than forecast to become a major hurricane hitting the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico etc etc.

What a total nightmare.

Looks like Jose will probably rapidly curve off into the Atlantic. Shouldn't affect us too much if the blocking high holds.

The predicted track of Jose seems to have moved to the East, which is presumably good news for the Eastern Seaboard.

But it does rather look like Maria is going to head through the Caribbean. The predicted track looks a little further south than the one Irma followed.

It does doesn't it Oubliette, that may weaken it faster than Irma perhaps? Very bad news for all the countries in the way though.

Maria is now a hurricane.

Maria looking like its headed for Puerto Rico.

If its cat 4 by then (as is being suggested) it would be only the 4th cat 4 to make landfall on Puerto Rico since 1851.

Last one was 1932.

When is it due to hit OYBK?

Puerto Rico? Wednesday. It's a cat 4 and still deepening. Hitting Dominica about now.

Maria a cat 5 now according to the bbc.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-latin-america-41314881

I'm stunned by just how quickly Maria intensified.

It was expected to intensify rapidly because the conditions were very favourable. Models were predicting it to strengthen from a TS to a cat 2, maybe 3 in the 36 hours before it hit the islands. But no one was expecting a cat 5 - it's terrible news for Dominica and Puerto Rico, whose buildings won't be up to the task.o

It is shocking, I didn't expect cat 5 yet. The report from the Dominican Republic sounds as though parts have been utterly devastated.

doh, not Dominican Republic. Dominica. Silly me. I was looking at the map thinking how can the DR already be devastated from Maria when it hasn't hit yet.

Puerto Rico is right in the firing line.

Looks like it will then turn away from Florida, NNW, while weakening somewhat hopefully. No idea what will happen after that.

Maria is the first cat 5 on record to hit Dominica.

www.facebook.com/SupportRooseveltSkerrit/
This is the facebook page of the President of Dominica. His status updates where his roof comes off are something else.

This is what he said two hours ago:
^Initial reports are of widespread devastation. So far we have lost all what money can buy and replace. My greatest fear for the morning is that we will wake to news of serious physical injury and possible deaths as a result of likely landslides triggered by persistent rains.
So, far the winds have swept away the roofs of almost every person I have spoken to or otherwise made contact with. The roof to my own official residence was among the first to go and this apparently triggered an avalanche of torn away roofs in the city and the countryside.^

^Come tomorrow morning we will hit the road, as soon as the all clear is given, in search of the injured and those trapped in the rubble.
I am honestly not preoccupied with physical damage at this time, because it is devastating...indeed, mind boggling. My focus now is in rescuing the trapped and securing medical assistance for the injured.
We will need help, my friend, we will need help of all kinds.^

It is too early to speak of the condition of the air and seaports, but I suspect both will be inoperable for a few days. That is why I am eager now to solicit the support of friendly nations and organisations with helicopter services, for I personally am eager to get up and get around the country to see and determine what's needed.

Sounds like it could be as bad as damage on Barbuda and the British Virgin Islands for Irma.

It sounds horrendous.

I don't know if it has been verified but Maria seems to be one of the fastest atlantic hurricanes to reach cat 5 ever recorded.

Fortunately nothing showing waiting in the wings for the next few days.

I don't usually follow hurricanes this closely. Is this season unusual or par for course?

Poor poor Dominica

It's very unusual to get a cluster of record breaking or near record breaking hurricanes fox. The number of tropical storms so far is above average but not record breaking.

Maria is back at a 5 already.

And since I last posted, there is a possibility that remnants of Lee may form into a new tropical cyclone.

Oh my. This sounds very worrying OYBBK. Wonder if it will will make trump sit up and reconsider climate change probably not

wunderground maria update which has some interesting discussion comparing this season to other seasons.

This graph shows a measure of the cumulative energy of the storms so far this season compared to a 30 year average.