US (and other places) Hurricane season

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It's very belated I know, I've been discussing the various hurricanes in another thread in the time I have recently, but anyway, better late than never. From t'other thread:

www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/054806.shtml?cone#contents Irma at the moment looks like it's going to slide into the Gulf of Mexico, grazing the west side of Florida. However, the GFS model has it turning earlier, so there is some uncertainty still. (as there often is)

Jose is expected to become a Hurricane over night tonight, but I don't think it will be as major as Irma due to outflow from Irma effectively choking it. However, depending on the path it takes it could still compound misery.

I'm more worried about the various Islands that Irma is traveling over rather than the potential for a US landfall, simply because they have the means to evacuate and more resources. They are going to be completely devastated. Though Branson is riding Irma out on Necker Island.

NWS Miami @ NWSMiami
*Fast-moving tornado just reported at Fort Lauderdale International Airport moving NW crossing I-595!** #Irma

Latest update has downgraded Irma to a category 3 hurricane.

Jeff saying 140mph winds heading towards Marco Island. Presumably based on satellite weather data.

keysweekly.com/42/snake-creek-bridge-reported-as-out/

Update for the Florida Keys.

Navy hope to get air base in Key West cleared by Monday afternoon. Advice given to boil all tap water as it may have been compromised.

Keiks Weather‏*@KeiksWeather*
Top Wind Gusts Recorded: Big Pine Key 120 MPH, Pembroke Pines 109 MPH, Naples 103 MPH, Miami 94 MPH, Marathon Key 88 MPH #Irma

This guy is nuts being out in this. www.pscp.tv/w/1LyxBEydlDnJN

NWS are saying that there have been at least 8 tornado touch downs in the last hour. I think that's going to get worse as Irma is drawing in some cold air now. That will increase convection.

I hope Jeff doesn't get clobbered Nannynick, he has a huge following, could be a lot of traumatized people (plus generally I'd rather people didn't die of course)

sorry, 6 tornadoes, not 8.

omg those pictures of Miami are apocalyptic

I hope you don't mind me joining your thread but I have been reading with great interest and learning a lot.

I have a stupid question though, if I may? I'm watching CNN where they keep saying that once the eye of the storm passes over an area, the winds then return but blowing in the opposite direction. I see Irma as a spinning wheel so how can the winds be blowing in opposite directions?

I have a friend in Lehigh Acres. The eye will be there in a couple of hours. It's VERY scary as the wind is still very strong, well over 100mph there. They were unable to evacuate, I don't think people understand how evacuation is/was impossible for many people. There are only two interstates in and out of the state and they have been like parking lots for days.

Eye moving north. Wind moving east to west. Eye moves north. Bottom of eye wind moves west to east.

I think that is how it works.

Think of it as a clock, Hester. Between 3-9 the hand moves left (so wind blows west), and then between 9-3 the hand moves right (so wind blows east). As it's going round, the top goes (eg) east while the bottom goes west. Eye passes and you change 'hemisphere'

God I knew that was a stupid question, sorry.
I think I've overloaded my brain with this today and just couldn't see the obvious. Thanks.

The Cubans may have mountains but there are 10million of them.also they do not have the infrastructure to rebuild. They are a poor nationand not supported by French Dutch British or americans. They have also never had a storm like this. My cuban friend is scared shitless and don't have the luxury of evacuating. Cuba is a tiny Island.

don't worry, it was clear that you did know really and it just wasn't clicking when you said about it being a spinning wheel!

The winds are always spinning anti-clockwise (in the northern hemisphere) but from the POV of someone on the ground they switch from going E-W to going W-E.

Look at the direction that the hands of a clock are travelling from 11 to 1 and then from 5 to 7.

My relatives did manage to leave Sarasota a while ago. My aunt isn't sure if their house will still be standing when they get back though.

Some of the news coming from this hurricane is just horrifying.

Yes to all of that Jeanne, but it being a tiny island. Well, apart from compared to America etc. It's tiny in the sense of most of it being affected, but massive when it comes to having to evacuate - it's much bigger than the UK and how easy would you find it to evacuate to north Scotland if you suddenly had to. Through a load of rough country lanes and a big mountainous bit in the middle.

NWS Key West‏*@NWSKeyWest* (22min ago)
2:35pm - As of now water level in Key West still about 2.5 ft above normal. Surge of 5-10 feet still possible through afternoon. #flkeys

Yet there are images of Islamorada and Key Largo which are like those ones in the Bahamas and Tampa appearing where the water has just gone.

Where is all that water going?! Its got to end up somewhere. I'm guessing that as the pressure drops, the surge threat drops, but there is still a huge amount of water caught in the hurricane.

If that's the case than if the hurricane slams inland before than water starts to return to where it came from, then there is still a hell of a lot of water that's going to end up somewhere it wasn't before.

I don't know the science on this, but I'm working on the same principle of 'what goes up must come down' - 'what water disappears must appear somewhere else'.

We haven't heard back from Cuban friends yet, but imagine it's gonna take a while to get comms back up...

:) It's clicked now.

There is a lady who was posting on a thread in Chat who is just south of Sarasota. She was sounding very calm. I doubt I could be calm in the face of this storm.

I think by the time it hits Sarasota it will be a Cat 2. That's still a damaging hurricane of course, but the storm surge will be the main thing. Those away from zone 1 and 2 should ride it out ok there hopefully.