US (and other places) Hurricane season

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It's very belated I know, I've been discussing the various hurricanes in another thread in the time I have recently, but anyway, better late than never. From t'other thread:

www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/054806.shtml?cone#contents Irma at the moment looks like it's going to slide into the Gulf of Mexico, grazing the west side of Florida. However, the GFS model has it turning earlier, so there is some uncertainty still. (as there often is)

Jose is expected to become a Hurricane over night tonight, but I don't think it will be as major as Irma due to outflow from Irma effectively choking it. However, depending on the path it takes it could still compound misery.

I'm more worried about the various Islands that Irma is traveling over rather than the potential for a US landfall, simply because they have the means to evacuate and more resources. They are going to be completely devastated. Though Branson is riding Irma out on Necker Island.

Does it weaken because it has hit land?

Very much so Hester. It needs to be over warm water to maintain itself. As you can imagine Hurricanes expend vast amounts of energy.

Also it is weakening because it is encountering wind shear.

One thing I always have to remind myself of, despite having sea sailed almost all my life, is that wind power is exponential. So the power of 100mph winds is not twice that of 50mph wind, but much greater.

www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/479/

And to think, the hurricane season is only half way through...

The National Weather Service has issued a Flash flood warning as they're expecting a storm surge to begin soon for the Naples/Marco Island area.

Thanks OhYouBadBadKitten. Very interesting.
Watching the coverage from Naples and the change is terrifying.

Worth bearing in mind is also what can happen with glass in high rise buildings.

The higher the floor the greater the window speed. This means there is negative pressure which can cause the glass to explode.

Whilst we've had hurricanes that have affected major cities I'm not sure there been one to pass quite so close a major city and as strong as is predicted for Irma.

The winds experienced in New Orleans for Katrina were Cat 1 / Cat 2 (up to 110mph).

On August 29, at 7:40 am CDT, it was reported that most of the windows on the north side of the Hyatt Regency New Orleans had been blown out, and many other high rise buildings had extensive window damage. The Hyatt was the most severely damaged hotel in the city, with beds reported to be flying out of the windows. Insulation tubes were exposed as the hotel's glass exterior was completely sheared off.
Hurricane Katrina Wiki

Forecast is currently for gusts of 120mph + (Cat 3) to hit Tampa, with sustained winds of 80mph.

It depends on how much power it loses and exactly where it hits, but Tampa has a lot of high rise.

Sorry, this is a very serious situation and that was a very interesting fact. I do wish the CNN presenters would go inside though.

It's a flash flood emergency for Naples with calls to evacuate vertically.

Reluctantly let dh have the tv for an hour. Will be putting cnn on again soon.

Wind speed, Window speed. You know what I mean!

My brain is slightly frazzled tonight.

Why is it predicted to travel so far up land as it were then? Is it a bit like the oil tanker which will take a long time to slow up given the energy captured in it?

I was nodding sagely at window speed thinking that yes the rate at which the glass was torn from its surrounds . God there has to be a bit of humour, it is so awful

Yes about the water having to go somewhere. I saw an image of the water gone from the Bahamas. I had never thought that so much water could 'disappear' in that way before. I am still trying to get my head around this. When the hurricane is finished, does the water from a storm surge recede like a tide back to where it was sucked up from?

I can't get my head around the ocean being there, then disappearing to get taken up by the storm surge and then what? Coming back after the storm? The magnitude of it all is awe-inspiringin a way. It is beyond what I can think of.

I knew what you meant Red. Bit frazzled too but it was nice to have a giggle.

Pretended to turn off coverage so the DS' would go to bed and put it back on once they were out of the way. DS1 came down and gave me the eyebrow but as I said to him, I've been a weather geek all my life there may never be another opportunity, I HOPE there is never another opportunity, to see such a severe weather situation covered so comprehensively in a first world country.

I think that's it shop, it gets it energy from the warm water (and other factors) but when it crosses land it finally has the breaks put on but it's absolutely massive and that energy will take a while to dissipate.

Naples is just starting to flood on cnn, the rate it's happening is extraordinary. Camera man yelled, reporter turned and the water was coming.

NHC Atlantic Ops‏ @NHC_Atlantic (1hr ago)
Water levels beginning to rise in Naples. Will rise rapidly in Marco Island & Naples after passage of eye. MOVE AWAY FROM THE WATER. #IRMA

Graph showing the water level.

The blue line is the normal expected level showing the tides. The red line is the current water line.

It seems to show that the water is far below what would normally be expected (the water disappearing effect).

That's why they are getting really nervous about a possible storm surge.

The number of dead journalists could be particularly huge.

and the wind just stopped. they are in the eye.

I don't think that the experts know when, precisely, the water will return, Summer. (I'll stand to be corrected on that.) one thing I am sure of, though - judging by the 'Gees' and 'Goshes' - is that the people out on the (previous) sea bed don't know.

Gosh, water starting to come up now on the Naples CNN man. The wind is dying down which seems very odd after all the huge gusts. I am buzzing nervous for them.

ABC News‏*@ABC*
JUST IN: Wind gust of 135 mph reported at Naples Airport, highest wind gust reported in Florida from #Irma so far

NWS Miami‏*@NWSMiami*
4:34 PM: #Naples Municipal Airport recorded a wind gust of 142 mph (WeatherBug mesonet NPLMP). #Irma

Alex Lamers‏*@AlexJLamers*
4:24 PM — Water levels shooting up FAST in Naples now. Just rose a little over 2 feet in 12 minutes. Surge arriving.

Turns out that wasn't the surge, was fresh water flooding.
What am I going to do about bed tonight? work tomorrow.

Go to bed.

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