US (and other places) Hurricane season

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It's very belated I know, I've been discussing the various hurricanes in another thread in the time I have recently, but anyway, better late than never. From t'other thread:

www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/054806.shtml?cone#contents Irma at the moment looks like it's going to slide into the Gulf of Mexico, grazing the west side of Florida. However, the GFS model has it turning earlier, so there is some uncertainty still. (as there often is)

Jose is expected to become a Hurricane over night tonight, but I don't think it will be as major as Irma due to outflow from Irma effectively choking it. However, depending on the path it takes it could still compound misery.

I'm more worried about the various Islands that Irma is traveling over rather than the potential for a US landfall, simply because they have the means to evacuate and more resources. They are going to be completely devastated. Though Branson is riding Irma out on Necker Island.

I think that the build up has been really confusing for those living there with shifting forecasts understandably so. I am seeing an air of optimism from those on the west coast. I think they are too early to be optimistic.

The bottom left hand corner of Florida is the Everglades. It's literally just swamp. Lots of alligators battening down the hatches but practically no humans.

I think there is lots of complanceny and perhaps a suspended disbelief from reality that comes from an innocent 'it couldn't happen to me' feeling.

I've seen comments that it 'wasnt that bad in key west' as people have seen things on webcams and storm crashers doing stupid things. They haven't seen stuff from places like Islamorada yet which is reported to have had a 7 ft surge which would put it underwater. It has previously been destroyed by hurricane. The images yesterday were bad enough.

Plus there is the sense of its not cat 5 and 'only' going to be a cat 3 in Tampa. Which projections still think is going to devastate the city. As if a cat 3 on a major city isn't a big deal.

I think people's ignorance of the science and the potential effects are quite stunning as you would expect people living in these areas to know more. The trouble is Tampa in particular has had a false sense of invulnerability because it's not used to it and the limited information so far isn't reflecting the situation in its full capacity and doesn't have the filter and additional information you might get from professional reporters and expects.

Horrible to see it play out. I think people will do some silly things round Tampa not realising.

Sea sucked out of Tampa Bay

mobile.twitter.com/TheAnonJournal/status/906903333004300288/video/1

And there might well be people there - out at the limits - who will be looking at the exposed surfaces.

storm surge in Miami is absolutely awful. Police officer saying it's neck deep and running three blocks in so far. It's just absolutely jaw dropping on cnn.

Except you know the sea could come back in so quickly where its been sucked out.

There was a bit in the Washington Post of a family in Tampa torn between leaving and riding it out, thinking it wouldn't be that bad them. Glad they left but it's a mindset that's hard to get your head round, staying against all advice.

I've seem something which suggests that Irma is now back to a 5. Is that true?

And neck deep is scary!

Unconfirmed reports of 14ft surge in Hyatt key West with 5 dead.

I wish they'd get the reporters somewhere safe - the BBC had Tomasz Schafernaker driving down a road in a terrifying manner earlier, and then there was some petrified woman reporting while looking round for flying debris. It's madness.

cozie where did you see that? I'm still seeing a 4 wherever I look.

www.flkeysnews.com/news/local/article172399102.html
City of Marathon: ‘Everything is under water, I mean everything’

One of Monroe County's 'Shelter of Last Resort' flooded. Around 50 people staying there. One died overnight of natural causes causing addition issues.

People in the shelter don't have enough food and plan to raid the cafeteria in the building (its a school).

That sounds horrendous Red

Miami

woah Red that is surreal

I think the next update will drop it to Cat 3 with winds at 130mph.

Well at least the mayor of Tampa is a pragmatic and intelligent man. It looks like he's done his absolute best to get the message across to get out of the low lying areas. This is horrible, the report from Marathon is terrible.

I agree about the reporters, just had one driving down a heavily tree lined road with several trees already down, I was screaming at him to get out of there. If the BBC damage Tomasz they will have me to answer to.

I've switched back to CNN from Fox, they don't seem terribly bright over there (not you fox).

twitter.com/ChrisSuchanKCTV/status/906919231643639809
15ft surge reported in Cudjoe Key.

Latest update from the Storm tracker website.

Latest stat update 13:00 local time (18:00 UK)
933mb min
130mph sustained wind speed
Cat 4.

Pressure has gone up slightly, but otherwise very little change. It certainly has not got significantly weaker.

It's likely still a 4 then, OYBBK. There's that much info around - some of it questionable or outdated -that you have to be careful. As if there's much difference on the ground, anyway. I don't know how some of these reporters are staying upright!

Still calling it as a Cat 4 then. ok. That pressure has barely budged.

twitter.com/abc/status/906924080892338176

Nice example of an eddy vortex here.

70% of buildings in South Florida constructed before regulations resulting from Hurricane Andrew were introduced.

Rumour circulating that 7 mile bridge has partly collapsed, which would not be unlikely. Unconfirmed at this stage. It would mean the Lower Keys were cut off. Again this wouldn't be a surprise.

Some years back, I recall reading a book by John D Macdonald called 'Condominium' - the second half of which deals with a hurricane on the keys. Insightful.

Watching JeffPiotrowski on Periscope is a bit addictive. He is driving down roads with very limited visability.