Weather warnings part 2 - will they fade away, or is bad weather set to remain?

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

new thread. other one full.

Swansea I'm afraid has an awful lot more rain and wind to come. Stormy at times.

At least we haven't had much in the way of serious damage, unlike many places.

I watched a meteorology video on the BBC website, and apparently these sequences of storms is all due to the jet stream becoming "stuck". Kitten: is there any mechanism for forecasting shifts in the jet stream?

Also, , I do recall sequences of weather systems coming in from the Atlantic as being pretty much the norm in the past, but not with the force of these recent storms. I really hope it's just a blip - though even if it were, it'd be of small comfort to those already affected.

Locally, the river Itchen has overflowed its banks, which is rare, and the council have tweeted that high groundwater is feeding into the river in places.

Alci, not really, there are a few things you can look at but they don't really give any decent advance forecasting.
My feeling is that we need to keep an eye on the states, as one of the drivers of the jet stream is big temperature differentials. They are having remarkable weather of their own over there.

Hester good to hear from you, very relieved you and your business are OK :)

That is sounding very very wild on the coast, I hope to god people are sensible, but I fear not.

I was speaking to an eminent oceanography the other day. He's very concerned about this weird winter they're having in the states, not least because the extreme cold they're having in the east will fuel the climate change deniers' arguments. They're ignoring the remarkably mild weather they're having in the west and Alaska of course.

Marne one of my winter tyres needed replacing, as it had a big egg sized deformity on one side, the man in the repair shop said, "at least it didn't blow when you were going 70!"

daily mail photos, houses damaged

Totally unscientific observation here........It seems like the South is getting the NW Highlands rainfall. especially after seeing the Jan rainfall % map. Way down for the North of Scotland and more than double for down South. I've only really noticed this in Summer. Especially 2012, when most of the Uk was sodden, but places like Skye and The Western Isles were running out of water. Am assuming the Jet stream is a few hundred miles South of where it usually roams.
Edinburgh has recently had rain and wind but nothing out of the ordinary at all, apart from it being quite mild for this time of year.
Feel for you all in the battered and rain soaked areas.

Perihelion, in many ways that is true, though the jet stream as well as being displaced is very strong.

No idea why the Met office havent got wind warnings for Saturday as a separate entity from the rain. I cant see anything in the models that would suggest one isnt warranted, wind speeds will perhaps be higher than the Tuesday/wednesday storm. Although I am pretty impressed with most of their forecasting I think their warnings have been inconsistent this winter.

Rain arrives even earlier today than the models were showing. 24 hours of rain here we come. Its going to be awful today.

Apologies for neglecting the snow in the Scottish highlands recently, I know that it is proving to be a very good snow season up there. Unfortunately limited time means I need to concentrate on the very unusual and damaging weather in the south. I do normally try and be 'fairer'.

We were watching the local news for Devon and Cornwall last night (not surprisingly the weather was the lead and only item) and they said that the houses that have been damaged on the seafront at Dawlish, might have to be demolished.

We're supposed to be down that way, staying just along the coast at Dawlish Warren at Easter. I think we're going to be seeing a very different Devon this year.

Amber wind warnings for south now Friday and Saturday

I think those amber wind warnings should be tweaked a little further north.

You are right Gloria, coastal Devon and Cornwall is going to be very different, in some places, forever - you cant replace history.

that is in the daily fail link I posted gloria.

how did you watch local tv out of area?

Black eyed I think you can watch non local TV by altering the postcode on your TV settings - we can with freesat. But don't ask me how - it would take me ages to read the manual!

I suspect you also can using the internet .

On iplayer you can search for regional news,

Try using keywords like south, north, west, east, to try to locate things.

Blackeyed ~ apologies, I missed it in the DM report (must try and read reports properly rather than scan through quickly!)
On our freesat box, you can choose any region to watch and the other BBC regions are all grouped together. For us, BBC South West is channel 962.

freesat. wwe don't hve but mum does.

and doh re i player. I should have thought of that!

Power cut from 4:30-6:00 so I've been awake since it went off

All is quiet on the Western Front this morning (literally - I am in Swansea).
Is the weather lady right saying there is another system heading our way tonight..? Because I have a broken, sad, pathetic looking reed plant out the front that is currently scattered all over my garden (and the road) thanks to Wednesday night (which was pretty bad here for the wind... Woke me up which considering a helicopter once went up and down our road with its beam on high and some twonk shouting 'please stay indoors' out of some form of mega speaker at 3am - chasing a bad man, as my dc's put it - and I slept through the whole thing, well, its something for wind to wake me up)... I need to collect all the reeds on road and chop the plant back to its basic roots so it will grow again in future... Can I get it done this weekend? I know, a pathetically small problem compared to some, feel free to throw me on the fire for such a trivial issue...

Don't be daft threebats, I know people are desperate to carry on with normal lives. Yes, I afraid there is another storm heading our way tonight. Winds tomorrow could gust to 80mph off headlands, 70mph more generally along the southern coast and 50- 60nph in general in southern England and Wales. Tomorrow morning hopefully won't be too windy.

That's irritating spotty!

SE.

I know it was 4am when I woke and heard it pelting down on my flat roof. Also heard a plopping noise during its pause which sounded like leaking onto something.

M worries are also trivial as concerns waiting for a short pause to walk the fussy rain shy dog, rush to get into my outfit and not forget to put the door key in my pocket before it pours again.
I do have a doggie onesie rain suit but she refuses to let me get her legs into the four trouser legs and then looks at me with a 'what have I done to deserve this ' expression.

We are naming storms now? Storm Charlie?
Anyhow - I trust you more oybbk months of online stalking of you watching your threads gives me more confidence in your good self than the news... I shall abandon all hope of cutting back the plant this weekend and instead get the hot water bottles done and snuggle in with the rugby.
I have no food in the house, not even the freezer is holding any joy - I have to go food shop after college today - I am going to run into the whole of bloody Swansea doing the same thing so they can ride out the storm with bread and milk... Its always the way with bad weather.
digerd I am going through so much frigging cat litter it is not funny - I hate cat litter, there's a nice spot up my garden where they go, we call it the cat manure pot - they have not freshened it up for days now thanks to hail and rain and wind. I feel your dog walking pain in a sense.

Given we rarely get battered to the extreme here - I hope all you in the path of this keep safe and well over weekend.

Just watched our weather forecast for tomorrow, may I put up a brief prayer to the god of children's sport? Please, please, please, please, please give the organisers of tomorrow's football the sense to cancel tonight so I don't have to disappoint a lot of small children tomorrow morning and can have a lie in instead.

LostinWales - I have no idea why match organisers seem never to look at the forecast or seem to think that the water will magically evaporate.

threebats.