BadKitten's Christmas forecast thread.

[OhYouMerryLittleKitten]

A just for fun thread! Remember I’m not a professional and it’s important not to base decisions on what I say in forecasting threads as I may very well get it wrong. At this point in time I am looking at GFS, as other charts come into range I will start discussing those too. I’m also looking at the GFS ensembles (which at present as you would expect have a wide range of solutions, most of which are mild). The forecast will change as we go along considering how far out we are at present.

In general over the next couple of weeks we seem to be kept in mild southerlies or south-westerly’s, with more potential for storms and there isn’t much promise of a cold Christmas. The 24th December has finally made into the range of the GFS. What a chart!! It shows a deep low which would bring severe gales and a mix of heavy snow (for some) and heavy rain (for most) across the UK with the snow risk being greater the further north you are.

It’s a stonker of a chart, but probably not a welcome one!

Hester that's a good website, interesting to see it won't be anything out of the ordinary here - so far anyway!

Funny it's generally pretty good, though a week out is stretching it a bit. They tend to overestimate wind speed and underestimate precipitation and temperature! Three days is usually fairly accurate.

However judging on what OYBBK has said as well, it does look as though the Christmas period is going to see some bastard weather.

Not really looking forward to driving six hours on Christmas Eve.

At least the heating doesn't have to be on Jaded!

Hester - I believe that is taken from the raw output from GFS. Could be wrong though.

GFS - the daddy of computer modelling :D

That was supposed to be a :o

Like you often say, there's no point really looking at beyond about three days out. I don't know why I do really! Unless you're in the middle of a really big, fat static anticyclone, it will invariably change.

absolutely it will though its interesting when the same storm does pop up over and over on models a week or so in advance.

GFS is freely available hence its ubiquity.

The latest gfs is a little kinder over the Christmas period - very windy rather than blow everything away windy. ECMWF has a storm very similar to today's and then another on Boxing day, so we arent really getting any closer to any detail.

Nonononono, I want snow bright cold weather please!

Horizontal rain is just the pits and difficult to protect against...

V windy and wet and cold ATM where we are - east kent. Have been busy at work recently so haven't even checked met office app or read anything beyond news flashes.

Is it going to be like this all Christmas?? We are travelling up north!

Morning, just going to check the models.

Don't be too surprised if you see some snow today. Some areas of Scotland may see lots. Welsh hills, Chilterns, Pennines may all see some later and perhaps to lower levels briefly.

Thanks Kitten

Tomorrow: Some rain or snow for Scotland, nicer elsewhere to start. By night time windy or perhaps stormy across the UK.

Saturday: Once again very windy, especially Scotland and the south coast. Heavy rain in the south.

Sunday: Some showers about which could fall as snow in central Scotland. Remaining windy.

Monday: Becoming very windy, especially along the south coast - gusting to 60mph again. Heavy rain spreading west.

Christmas eve: Probably wet and very windy again. gFS diverges from UKMO to show the winds calming down whereas UKMO shows gusts to 70mph along the south coast and also stormy in the north of Scotland.

Christmas Day: ECMWF shows very windy in north of Scotland, calmer elsewhere. GFS goes for a less deep solution and hence not so stormy but colder with temps around or below zero for much of the north and 4-6C across the south.

Boxing day: a cold day away from the south coasts with perhaps some snow showers :) calmer as this model run takes the pesky nasty low further south into France.

27th: GFS shows a cold day (but with warm lurking off the SW) and perhsps some snow showers where precip meets the colder air in central southern Britain/southern midlands (take that with a massive pinch of salt!!!)

28th on: GFS looks less stormy and cold. Potential for more seasonal weather perhaps?

06Z GFS brings the storm back to Scotland (and wild everywhere) on Christmas eve and it also beings the risk of some heavy snow not just in Scotland, but perhaps elsewhere too. Interesting run this one.

It also brings the nasty storm back over us Boxing Day and into the 27th - really wild again with the focus being more on England this time.

life is a little less busy now so happy to try and help with a few queries :) (as long as you dont rely on the answer actually being correct

Sat night (21 Dec), Glasgow area. No snow please. What are the chances of nice weathe

Do you want to take a punt at what the weather will be like in London tomorrow?

I'm thinking about getting the train in to 'Ooh and Ahh' at the lights, the tree, the shop windows, mooch around the markets, drink mulled wine and generally pretend I still live in London & I don't much fancy it in the peeing rain - funnily enough

Oh and of course - when I need to get the winter tyres put on

I hope it's not all too windy & wet for Santa & the boys to deliver all the pressies!!

Nannynick - who gave you a pass to cross the border?

Meant to be getting a ferry to Belfast on Boxing Day. Is it going to be hideously rough?!! Also driving down from Glasgow to Stranraer to get the ferry, have rather unpleasant memories of the drive a few yrs ago in the ice and snow...

I will have my passport I like Scotland but have yet to experience lots of snow there, last Christmas was wet.

nannynick - at present I'd say windy and showery/wet depending on which model you look at. Not too stormy at present but there is a low pressure to the north modelled so if that were to track further south it could be an issue.

Chipping, its possible (just) that you may need the winter tyres after christmas - a bit of a hint of change in the weather this morning. As for tomorrow is a good day to go for it :) some rain towards the evening perhaps but it starts off looking lovely and sunny. Wind not too bad during the day, picking up by about 9pm as the rain comes in.

It could be allthegood. at the moment the storm isnt forecast until the evening/night of boxing day, but seas get rough ahead dont they and of course we dont know the real timing of the storm yet - if indeed it happens.