Possible severe gales on Monday 28th.

[OhYouWickedWickedWitch]

I'm keeping a pretty close eye on developments for Monday. some of the models (in particular gfs) are showing a deep low developing over England, with the majority of the gfs runs taking the worst of the wind over the south.

Massive if. But if the weather were to pan out as those models are suggesting it would be a damaging storm, especially given the trees still being in leaf. I'd keep an eye on the met office early warnings page and if they start warning about it then it would be a good weekend to tidy the garden before you lose your stuff

I'll update as things become clearer.

Poor France gobby!

meteociel report

Thank you for this, Kitten, as I probably wouldn't have noticed the warnings. It's DH's last day off today so I've just told him to secure everything in the garden. We're Chichester, right on the South Coast.

I do hope it improves later in the week, we're due to get the ferry to France Friday for the day (glad I didn't book Monday!) But that's a whole other question I will ask after this is all over!

Had the flu jab yesterday, but tomorrow must prune my neighbour's dead,deseased plum tree which is hanging over my shed roof.
The very tall, old pinetree on the towpath I am more worried about as is opposite my shed with a large open field behind it . They get the full force of the westerlies.

Shall I repeat my experience of my ferry journey from Harwich to Hamburg in a force 12 gale? NO? OK
The young people in the disco at the top part of the ferry had a wonderful enjoyable time I was told. Dancing to the left and then to right. They found it hilarious .

oops diseased.

I think gusts of 60 or 70mph are usually fine unless you have loose tiles or light furniture in the garden. Just watch on the road for falling trees while driving as we had very bad summer gales here one time and it broke lots of branches and felled lots of trees which were in full leaf. Nightmare drive home that day due to fallen trees on roads and diversions. The leaves have been falling like mad here so not as risky.

I agree with funnyrunner, gusts up to 70mph are normally fine, just make sure your garden is tidy first & put as much stuff as possible into your garage.

Where I live, which is a small island off UK coast, 2 autumns ago we had a succession of 3 storms coming through & each one had Force 11 gusts & it was fine.

The PP who is flying in a small plane to southampton on Sunday will be fine. We have flights in very small planes going all the time in that weather here, my mum went on one this morning!

Just returned from the dog walk and the breeze is really mild again. Leaves falling even faster and must be beware of walking under the oaks trees as we got pelted by showersof acorns falling off them. The squirrels were in a frenzy to collect as many as possible off the ground .
Seen more bare trees today.
The people I spoke to knew nothing about the storm warning.

Grr two rare days off with children.

Looks like Eden and crealy Will be wash outs!

met office warnings have expanded.

Problem is, down in the south and central england our trees are not used to such wind loads and the main risks will be down to trees coming down.

I noticed trees are turning more here too but temp outside is 17C and we are running 2.7C above the october CET average currently.

Met office are no more certain about whether the storm will develop or not than they were yesterday! warnings matrix still shows low probability.

I'm due to fly from Glasgow to London city first thing Monday morning. I'm normally a good flyer but am going to be anxious now all weekend.

useful graphic of met office thoughts on track of storm.

nulgirl. Don't be anxious - if it's not safe they will cancel it.

Looking at that meteociel.fr link, I can't actually make out Britain. Are we hidden under that dark red mass of awfulness, or do the French merely deem us too insignificant to include? :o
"Ah so les rosbifs are going to get...ow you say?....clobbered?"

Meteociel has the very very awfullest stuff going through the channel, but southern England coasts are at level 2 of awfulness!

I've been looking at when flights are cancelled due to high winds. If it goes through in the early hours then the worst will be through before rush hour. Seems that if its a headwind then depending on the aircraft spec they can takeoff at speeds of up to 50knts (58mph). If its a cross wind it is much lower.

Heathrow and Gatwick runways go east-west. southampton is a bit trickier it goes roughly north south.

Is there anyone who knows more about this stuff????

My plan of action:
Secure the garden.
Stock up on wine and candles.
Have some board games and food that doesn't need cooking handy.
Stay in.
I suggest you do the same if you can.

Very similar indeed to my plan TIG :)

but mine involves charging up my phone and hanging onto my internet for as long as possible!

oh joy. we have gone amber. the question is hose roof would I prefer to sleep under. my do a downstairs sleep over with the dc rather than go to mums and sleep under her chimney pot.

pants - 9am flight from Luton - OhYouWickedWitch any ideas if it's likely to be cancelled?

9am on MONDAY that is

Where are you all? I'm in Somerset.
Good idea about keeping phone charged.

So where is this storm coming from?

We have a frontal wave on the western side of the Atlantic. It looks like it will interact with a very strong Jet Stream. Add in an upper trough coming down from Newfoundland, bringing in cold air and moist tropical air coming from the south and if they all interact just right you end up with an explosively deepening low.

The 1987 storm snuck in from the Bay of Biscay.