Battle of the cold and the mild

[OhyouBadBadkitten]

Which will win at the end of next week?
(very brief this morning - running behind a bit)
Cold weekend for all before it warms up again for a couple of days.
GFS then has mild winning.
ECMWF has cold winning (and boy does it look impressive on the charts)
UKMO doesnt quite stretch that far but I think that it is closer to ECMWF and is a bit of a blend solution.

back later :)

Well personally I quite fancy a cold snap, particularly if it involves snow

Marking my place :)

Lovely frost this morning ~ thought it felt colder than the 1-2C that the car was telling me it was. I'd like some snow as well so I'm also marking my place (de-ices it first!)

Certainly chilly in bucks this morning, looking at top temps of 4 degrees for the next few days. It can snow tonight, as long as its gone by Monday :) I was quite enjoying the unseasonable mildness we've been having as i work outside :)

Frost, blue skies 2 days in a row and NO wind!
I reckon cold, for no other reason than Autumn seemed late, so perhaps Winter is just about to kick off.......

ahhhh, the next run of GFS is interesting (they are re run every 6 hours) - although it keeps it mild for several days after this cold interlude (with a biggish high pressure over much of the south) it does then show the high pressure retreating slowly over the next week (week of the 23rd) with cold north westerlies becoming a feature. (too early to talk about snow but its the sort of scenario that i think would set up a snow showers situation.

So perhaps the ECMWF is onto something...... in 10 days time it could be cold north westerlies (with snow showers) or could be very cold north easterlies. Or they could both be wrong

I was reading (and trying to understand what they were saying!) on met-monkey this morning that the ECMWF has been one of the most reliable ones for forecasting so maybe it'll turn out to be right. When I looked at it this morning, it certainly was impressive (don't understand it but know that big blue blob means cold!)
It'll be interesting to see how it turns out!

They are right Gloria, particularly with the recent storms we've had - EMCWF seemed to get the track more accurately and earlier than the other models (IIRC)

Met office have issued a cold weather alert for this weekend, which is slightly bemusing - I can understand them being issued to hospitals and power companies and what not, but not really to the general public at this level of cold. (reminds me must get the fire laid!)

I agree that the cold weather alerts are a bit too frequent for the general public. The met office also seems to be issuing amber alerts for severe weather every time a puddle might freeze over. The problem is that we'll stop taking any notice (and miss the one where it goes down to -10 and I let the DCs go out with no socks on ).

Looking at the wording, things like there could be "disruption to the delivery of services" etc, a Level 2 does seem to overdoing it a bit! Think we need a Level 1.5!

Think we are on course down here for a 'coldest night of the winter so far' at -2.5C unless the fog kicks in, which will limit it a bit. Just realised that means a freezing fog is possible. yuk. (coldest was -3.9 on the 19th December)

DS1 is on Cub Camp this weekend - will be sleeping in his clothes as well as his sleeping bag I think!

Gloria - It is always possible that the postman slips over. [Hmm] The met office are definitely over-doing it.

-3.4C.....

brrrr for your ds manky.

low of -5.4C at 5am. The winters record is broken!

15.1C in here though

Amusing to look at the models this morning. ECMWF is firmly going for cold to win by the end of next week with very cold north easterlies. gFS is starting to concede that cold will win but still refuses to give up the idea of cold westerlies. UKMO is starting to look more like the ECMWF solution.

So, cautiously I'm starting to think that the cold will be the eventual winner. time to get the thermals out perhaps???

Oh yes, oh yes, go snow, go snow

Well, perhaps my inclination yesterday to believe that perhaps cold will win may be wrong! The 3 models are starting to look a little similar, met office and ECMWF are (I believe) showing us cold north westerlies but not as spectacularly cold as the ECMWF has done whilst the GFS shows warm N-Westerlies.

Oh bum.
Metoffice have given a Level 3 Cold Weather Alert!

It's been beautiful here today - crisp and cold and sunny. Ane we stargazed with the kids last night - stunning sky!

Weather man said we might get wintery showers on Friday I have EVERY thing crossed

level 3 cold alert for the next couple of days!

That would seem quite likely Meg :) I think northern areas most at risk.

models still not in agreement over it lasting, latest gfs is showing at least a temporary winter for most next weekend.

I'm in Sussex and hope we get some, I'm desperate!