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Weather

Help! What are the real chance of snow on Thursday

684 replies

TheUnmentioned · 12/12/2010 19:41

in central scotland, fife and perthshire?

I have to get to a very important appointment and will have a new baby and preschooler in the car.

OP posts:
piratecatClaus · 14/12/2010 18:57

thankyou oybbk, will hope to have some insights later perhaps.

OhYouSnowySnowyKitten · 14/12/2010 19:10

ok.

I think timings for this front are still up in the air. I've a gut feeling that the front will be slower than currently programmed in by gfs. I don't have any concrete evidence of this though, so could be wrong!

I think that it is possible that we (any of us) don't get a huge amount of snow from the front crossing itself. I think that for most there will be a fair bit of rain first (which is bad news for gritting) then some snow on the back edge before it all glazes over. nasty. Then for many, esp in the west including Wales and SW there will be heavy snow showers piling in snow on top of the ice. How much snow people get in the initial period as the back edge of the cold front goes through - well who knows? anyones guess really.

If you are choosing between travelling thursday day or friday day, do it thursday. Thursday night - decision is more problematic and I would listen to local radio and look at the traffic england website for realtime flow on motorways.

I think that once this weather kicks in, then our travelling fate lies in the hands of the highways agency and local councils!

Piratecat, Saturday/Sunday could be a problem for the kent area. Its a tricky little low that is difficult to model with any accuracy at this range - but worth being aware.

I think that hopefully if you are flying from heathrow or gatwick on friday, that as long as you can get there ok then you should be able to fly. But please check!!!!!

GentleOtter - if you could hold them for me until the Spring that would be great Grin

Whoever asked about where I get my info from. Mostly Wetterzentrale but I do cheat if it is getting tricky and wander round various weather forums to make sure I'm not missing or misunderstanding stuff. Close to the time (within 24 hours) met office invent can be great for timing of stuff.

Right, back later :)

OhYouSnowySnowyKitten · 14/12/2010 19:11

(gosh those were a randomly arranged collection of thoughts - hope I've covered everything!)

HowToLookGoodGlaikit · 14/12/2010 19:39

What should I expect here on the NE coast of Scotland? Below Aberdeen but north of Dundee :)

geordieminx · 14/12/2010 19:43

Kitten - am supposed to be traveling from Glasgow to borders on Thursday, staying over night and coming back Friday morning.... What d'ya think?

SuePurblybiltbyElves · 14/12/2010 20:03

I do love you OYBBK. You're so clever.

Horton · 14/12/2010 20:05

Thanks, Kind Kitteny One.

I'm guessing if you think Gatwick should be okay on Friday then it will probably be all right the following week, given no more big snowfalls. That's a good thought to hold onto!

mspotatochip · 14/12/2010 20:11

Not sure what I would do without your threads kitten they distract me nicely from fretting about the weather at this time of the year. I'm getting more and more fascinated by the workings of all the models and looking forward to tracking the temp drops mentioned on Thursday.

Really hoping all clear by Monday though as I need to not get stuck at gatwick this year!!

duckyfuzz · 14/12/2010 20:14

kitten, according to netweather we're getting snow fairly constantly from Friday onwards in the NE, would you concur with this?!

Itsfarkinfreezing · 14/12/2010 20:17

Thanks OYBBK. Are there any murmerings about what might be happening next week? No accuracy of course, just general feelings?

OhYouSnowySnowyKitten · 14/12/2010 20:33

You are all so funny. I'm hoping to do a professional course in this at some point so that I actually really do know I'm talking about properly!

Well Horton, if that were the case then yes it would continue to be ok. Did you want my thoughts on the likelihood or do you want to be in happy land? :)

ducky - it is what GFS shows at the moment - very cold too.

Itsfarkin - at the moment it looks bloody cold until midweek and a generally pretty snow picture. Towards Christmas - really not sure. Looks warmer from the sw at the moment but whether the models will stick with that scenario who knows?!

geordieminx - I think you have set yourself an interesting challenge!

Howtolook - snow! I think your coast will be sheltered from the worst of it but that may not be saying much.

Horton · 14/12/2010 20:36

Likelihood, please! Even if it makes me sad...

duckyfuzz · 14/12/2010 20:39

kitten you're great! I want to learn to read the charts myself Envy

AitchTwoOh · 14/12/2010 20:40

even if you don't really know what you are talking about, kitten, it is so interesting to hear.

ApocalypseCheeseToastie · 14/12/2010 20:42

Is South Cumbria doomed too ?

geordieminx · 14/12/2010 20:44

I like interesting challenges... I do not like being stuck on the motorway for 15 hours Grin

OhYouSnowySnowyKitten · 14/12/2010 20:47

Bother - I think my instincts are wrong about the timing of the cold front being slower than gfs suggests.

If you go here and then click on 'Bracknell' and 48h you get the lunchtime (12z) chart for thursday. (at the moment) You can see two cold fronts one running across from the top of Wales and one running across from the bottom of wales roughly. Those are our trouble makers and they are there too early (in comparison to what gfs was showing).

Horton - likely to get significant snowfall with the risk starting friday on.

OhYouSnowySnowyKitten · 14/12/2010 20:48

Apocalypse - yes!

I hope everyone has enough wine in!

laughalot · 14/12/2010 20:50

Kitten north east midlands what are your thoughts please Grin.

OhYouSnowySnowyKitten · 14/12/2010 20:52

snowy!!

DanceInTheDark · 14/12/2010 20:52

what is MSLP and thickness??Confused That shorter cold front is right across me.

And i think i have the start of an ear infection which the cold will NOT help :(

onimolap · 14/12/2010 20:52

OYSSK: how are things looking beyond Friday?

Is there going to be snow beyond the SW/W/NW areas that seem to be in for a dump for Thurs/Fri?

dietcokesholidaysarecoming · 14/12/2010 20:53

OYBBK

Sorry I haven't been able to reply to your PM. It won't let me access it from iPod. Really appreciate the good work you are doing.

sarahfreck · 14/12/2010 20:53

Yikes!Second cold front seems very close to Greater Manchester! Thanks for the warning Snowy Kitten!

OhYouSnowySnowyKitten · 14/12/2010 20:53

I guess I ought to caution that in general through this spell, it is more likely that severe snow will be around coastal counties with perhaps central England seeing less. I'm sure there will be some saying 'oi wheres my snow then?'