Help! What are the real chance of snow on Thursday

[TheUnmentioned]

in central scotland, fife and perthshire?

I have to get to a very important appointment and will have a new baby and preschooler in the car.

Just had the biggest, fastest graupel shower ever (am so loving my new word). I would say Grow-pel - Grow like growl, not grow.

Snowing lightly now and some very big clouds above in Devon. We haven't been sledging yet - we've saving ourselves.

We've just gone from orange to yellow.

I waver between grow(l)pel and grawpel.
We have a steady snow 'dust' shower (settling) and sunshine.

We have sun too. This is shit I want snow I can't wait to move from here!

Hi twit ! Just having the tiniest flakes i have ever seen,hope it hurries up and we have gigantic flakes and loads of it !

Woke up to 3 cm which becmae more like 4" as I trekked up the hill towards the CM: her road (very high / steep) has become impassable to cars, and school closing early. SNU transport closed though no actuallc all to tell us- poor ds3 just stood waiting for ages until DH tracked the usual escort down.

Our little road an ice rink, but main roads all OK.

Yes !!! it has suddenly started to pour down here .Thank god for that i thought we ere going to miss out !

and its settling

midnight...I found an answer here when I was wondering about this very thing! Also, I found a great 'guide to precipitation' which I will try to re-find...

Loving the new weather hobby!

You won't believe it, there still is no model consistency for tomorrow and Sunday's weather. Astonishing! I'm afraid you can probably ignore any forecasts you hear or see about the weekend and just take it that it may snow or it may not snow and that close to southern coasts it may be rain instead.

midnight, I don't think there is much truth in that, after all it does snow in the arctic! I think it is more to do with the fact that cold air tends to be dry air - the warmer that air is, the more moisture it can hold. Also, in the UK our coldest weather often comes from nights with no cloud cover so we get rapid radiative cooling.

Will read Teuchs link now :) - see if I'm talking utter poppycock!

damn its all stopped now and we have blue skys again

Good link - says it in a much more scientific way :)

GWB :) I was (you lucky sod!)

A dusting and i mean a dusting here,Though very cold yet my mum 5 miles up the orad has it coming down in bucketloads my dc going to be disappointed as have brand new sledge

Any hope for Liverpool at all do you reckon OYBK?

ledodgy - there is hope overnight tonight for you still.One model has it firm square over you, the other just brushes you.

updated warnings (for what they are worth.)

Good on the met office for this:
"Please note there are continued uncertainties about amounts and extent of snowfall, but there is the potential for widespread disruption to travel networks and sporting events."
Lovely to see a nice honest 'we aren't really sure'

Nothing apart from a flurry for about 15 mins yesterday. Temp has dropped and pressure risen (?) from 1024 (or something) to 998.

BUT bear in mind that my wreath is now hung over the top of my sensor so it may not be working correctly

On that Met Office invent I am obsessively zooming into my tiny village and looking at rainfall - working on the principle that it'll fall as snow. Annoyingly all the huge clouds miss me by about 4 miles. But they can't be that precise anyway - right?

I think metoffice looking out of window rather than predicting, as they said no snow for London!!!! Now changing their minds!!!

I was thinking the same they change their minds as often as the weather so to speak..

Its not that precise :) Weather models work (sort of) by dividing the country into cubes. which is the grid size. This is the resolution of the model.

I think, if I remember correctly the grid size for short term forecasts from the met office is 12.5km, so they can't be more precise than that.

Some models have greater precision with a finer mesh size but the computing power needed goes up rapidly with reducing the grid size.

Christmasrocks - to be fair, I have no contention with the met office over this, it is a hugely hugely complicated system and none of the computer models are being consistent. some things are beyond our current predictive ability.

We have snow here now - very pretty!