Arcade was still the fav in 2019 and it was the one that was talked about most. Duncan was definitely regarded as the one to beat.
Keiino and Sergey Lazarev were fan fans but I'd argue split the same vote.
Soldi came second - it was different and arguably ground breaking.
2016 was the much more open year comparatively.
This year?
I'm not sure. We are still waiting on that French entry so I think it's too easy to say. I do think there's a Sweden/Estonia split vote issue. The same thing really favoured Nemo last year - there were a number of quirky entries.
But there's really not a lot that REALLY stands out from the others. I stand by my thought that after two or three listens you KNOW what really stands out. There's not many in that camp.
I think there's a number of distant 'eurovision categories' in terms of where each song fits in. A song that crosses two or more of these categories often does particularly well.
The most common of these I name:
Operatic
Big Slow Ballad
Chart Pop
Latino / female lead dance troop
Euro Electro-Pop
Rock/Heavy Metal/Alternative
Quirky
Ethnic
Boy Band/Soloist
Rave / Dance
Old Skool Eurovision
I'm trying to work out which song ticks the 'big slow ballad' this year - the jury vote love this, but actually so do the viewers. The big shock last year was Latvia's Dons with "Hollow". It was off EVERYONE's radars but there was nothing else that ticked that box. That's what I'd keep my eyes on. It typically scores well - for me it's not clear where those votes will go for me at present.
That's where I think Louane is still very much keeping an eye on. She has the vocals to tick that - it depends on the song.
The Dutch entry is one of the more polished, and one of the few that stands out and I think will do well but lacks the final edge to win - I think because it possibly sits rather safely in its Chart Pop box. It's VERY well choreographed though but it's not pushing any boundaries. It's on 1.5million views in ten days. If it can step a little into 'big ballard' (think last year's French performance) it could tip the balance. It has that potential. It's one for the night.
That's NOT where the Austria entry lies. I'd call it 'operatic' that Nemo and Jamala fell into. That crosses into Electro-Pop. But the Austrian entry has to escape being Nemo II. It's a chain around it's neck.
And Electro-Pop is a crowded house again this year.
I'd argue Sweden is crossing the Ethnic / Quirky categories well. It's clearly playing on 'sweden' and doing the quirky dance thing. It's 'different' for want of a better word. I don't think there's much in the 'national costume with traditional instrument' category this year.
JJ Austria is currently sitting on over 950,000 views on YouTube. You'd be nuts to ignore that. That's in 3 days. BUT KAJ has hit 538,000 views in 18 hrs on the official ESC video. In addition to that it's got 3.6million views for the melodifestivalen video!!!
It depends on what can pick up momentum in the next couple of weeks. One of the dangers of the quirky entry for me, is how much longevity it has - as in how many times you can watch it before it becomes irritating. Croatia's entry last year suffered for this for me, whilst Europapa went the other way and had momentum. Estonia is more like Croatia in than, I don't think it has the shelf life Sweden has which I think will be pretty damn viral by the time we get to May. I am half expected 'lumberjack sauna parties' as a theme to become a reality.
I really can't see much past France, Austria, Sweden or The Netherlands at present.
The wild card of course is Israel for reasons I need not explain.