I don't think we're going to see Alex 1 go after Surfer Girl and I don't think we're going to see Alex2 go after Paul.
I think we're just going to see a lot of wobbles, a lot of insecurity. And the newbies doing their best flirt.
I think it's highly unlikely someone like Surfer Girl would IRL go for a rather staid and awkward NHS junior doctor in a million years BUT she is 100% aware he's very popular.
If I was going in at this point I would go after the one who's single (Sam) and the popular one whose coupling is very new (Alex)
As for Alex2? Possibly Paul just thinks she's hot. He would know she has no popular support yet, so it could be just pens-driven.
But it doesn't meant A&A ultimately leave the coupling. They'd be stupid to, this late in the game.