Agree that GSCEs this year are far worse from a mental health pov for my Y11 DD than they were for her sister two years ago. The prolonged uncertainty and shifting metrics of measurement are hugely destabilising. I see many previously high achieving, engaged kids switching off in exhaustion and exasperation.
In terms of comparisons between schools, weirdly I am not too concerned. However schools chose to conduct the assessments, they will be doing so for their own cohort, so they have an idea of approx ranking within their school. They will then do an approx allocation of grades so that results are on a par with those attained in 2017-2019. Within that, if the current cohort came up to school with higher achievement, they will be able to use that an explanation for why grades are higher this year. Schools have no reason to under-grade their pupils as a whole cohort. They should only be assessing them on what they have learned, and raw scores can't be compared to previous years if they get students to sit papers where they haven't covered all the material. Where students are borderline, I think they will err on the side of upgrading.
This is not to say that individual students won't lose out. There will be injustices as they has to be with anything on this scale. But the exam system delivers injustices every year too. I think English Lang and History grading in particular is not consistent across markers in normal GCSE/A levels.
Having said all that, my DDs school has just sent an email saying that if anyone misses an assessment, they risk getting zero marks in that paper. If papers have been missed, the regulations say that schools are able submit other evidence or calculate without if there is genuine reason to do so. The reason DDs school isn't saying this is because it likes neat boxes and is very data driven. Mental health in Y11 is as you can imagine, through the floor as a consequence.
I can't wait for this to be over for all our DC. There is a huge amount of picking up the pieces for us as parents, especially for those students whose schools do not have a sixth form, who will in effect be cast adrift with no support until college starts in Sept. Teachers too are suffering massively with workload and pressure. There may well be an exodus of burnt out teachers once this is done.
As for blame - Johnson's govt's handling on the pandemic, Williamson's ineptitude, Ofqual's cowardice and lack or preparation, and (some) schools' insecurity that has put fear of being being seen as having less than perfect data over student wellbeing.
Fin.