Long term effect of coronavirus crisis on private school sector

[suk44]

I was reading an article in the Guardian today about the pressure some independent schools are under in the current situation, and how the ongoing uncertainty could hit the viability of some of them. Regardless of whether someone would be happy or unhappy with it, i''m thinking it is quite likely the sector is heading for a hugely difficult couple of years (like many other sectors of course) and especially since this isn't an issue that will be fully resolved anytime soon.

I understand some private schools were hanging on by their fingernails financially even before this crisis due to the huge increase in pension contributions, and now you have to add in the potential pressure from some parents for partially refunded fees for next term, international boarders having to fly home, and predictions of a deep recession (and therefore fewer that could afford to send their children to fee paying schools).

I'm wondering if we will end up seeing a greater number of such schools merging, closing or converting to state schools that we saw even after the 2008 recession, affecting even some big names?

so if the government could support the independent sector to get through it

Private schools can already use the job retention scheme, and some have already furloughed some of their staff. I can't see what other help would be on offer.

As I mentioned earlier in the thread, there is absolutely no chance of the government propping up private schools or subsidising fees or anything like that. If it did such a thing at a time of likely mass unemployment, billions being added to the national debt and another likely era of austerity in public spending.. it would be an act of political suicide that even Boris Johnson would not contemplate.

They might have to spend on the state sector though if lots more places are needed.

I always find it odd that people pay fees without evaluation of a school. If the state is better, why pay £5000 fees each term in the first place? It doesn’t guarantee nice children that’s for sure. It should mean you get a lot of things which are better than state though. At my DDs old senior school, day fees are £7200 a term for y7-8 rising to £8400 a term for 6th form. So £5000 a term is maybe not enough to provide what’s needed for excellence.

They might have to spend on the state sector though if lots more places are needed.

If you were saying that in response to my post, then yes I agree, but funding more state school places is very different to bailing out fee-paying schools. The government will do the former (if ultimately necessary) but will never do the latter.

Yes. Agreeing with you suki. The private sector won’t be bailed out.

Everyone on the programme was very worried about the attainment gap widening significantly.

This is absolutely a concern, but it's not necessarily something that even the best schools would be able to address.

I work with disadvantaged young people in a professional capacity - I don't work for an education provider but I do work closely with them. Some of the young people are failing to engage in education at all at the moment, which is deeply concerning, but the reasons for this are very complex. It is not for want of trying on the part of schools and colleges in these cases, as they're actually doing a great job.

Obviously the schools cannot baby sit these DC when they don’t attend. That’s why the gap will grow and I agree the schools cannot close it. It’s very disheartening for all concerned.

I maintain there is value in independent schools, not all but the good ones. My DD has been given 2 worksheets a day from her state school (both are pulled from free internet resources), with the expectation I address any learning and mark (whilst working full time), zero support from the school, no online lessons etc. If I compare this to the online lessons my brother is delivering as a teacher in an independent school I can't help feel that indie is a big advantage.. some state schools may well be providing good support however this isn't across the board by any stretch.

Indie is a huge cost but what's the cost of not educating your child? I wish it weren't the case but I couldn't be more unsuitable to teach DD myself.

The bigger question is really can they survive.. few indies have fat balance sheets so money will run dry, particularly if international students don't return. I suspect many will fold or maybe merge / convert into state.

I think there are Indies that are doing a good job and there are states that are doing a good job. Similarly there are both that are doing a terrible job. I really think when it comes to it it's the luck of the draw. Our friends prep has been delivering horrible online lessons that have been all over the place and no organisation behind them. Kids getting in trouble for being late to online tutor.
Our state secondary has sent DD a coloured timetable, she gets all the work set on Monday and has links and blank emails she can send to teachers in case she's stuck.
We have had a phone call twice a week as well as zoom assembly. They've got her a free tutor through the Coronavirus scheme. No online lessons but the lessons prepared on Google classroom have been amazing and some pre recorded by the teacher. No crazy amounts either, she has about 2hrs of work a day. All school laptops have been handed out to students as well as all the instruments the school had. There was even a boy who had a digital piano delivered by a teacher. They've had all sorts of competitions to get the kids involved and have been emailing Amazon vouchers to the winners. We really couldn't be more happy with it.

The other state sec school down the road has been able to provide barely anything as they have really old ICT systems that haven't been able to handle the traffic.
It seems like it's really the luck of the draw. Whether that be you going to a new school that has the ICT they need or the family that will make you do the work even if the school doesn't provide it.

Just read this article from a couple of weeks ago announcing another school permanently closing at the end of this term:

www.eadt.co.uk/news/moreton-hall-prep-school-in-bury-st-edmunds-closes-due-to-coronavirus-1-6618457

and another school announces its closure:

www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/18423128.st-thomas-garnets-private-school-boscombe-close-good/

I think the independent school market had too many schools in it, especially at Prep level.

Lots of the very small ones have been clinging on for years and probably would have closed in the next few years but this is speeding it up. They can't sustain a drop in pupil numbers or fee income of even small levels as their margins are too small or for some of them their debt too big already.

Secondary schools in certain regions are at risk too - where the fee-paying population is much smaller and it's far less competitive to get in. Again, the small ones will struggle. They might keep going next year, but a lot will depend on how many pull out for September. The difficulty is that if a fair few fail, some areas will be left without Independnet provision or need to travel many miles to access it - but it is a much smaller market.

Schools in the strongest position are decent sized day schools which don't depend on boarders and especially international boarders, which are in London or the south east. Although their potential customers will drop, especially for the highly competitive ones, there should still be enough students, plus their larger size means they can usually weather more storms. They have often been the ones to offer the smaller discounts too - keeping themselves in the strongest possible financial position.

What will be hard for all these schools is if disruptions continue on a large scale beyond the summer holidays. If students can't be in school still or only on a very occasional basis, parents might choose to withdraw if they have given rolling notice just in case. If they haven't given rolling notice they will be committed to another term of fees anyway. It will also be hard as the economic downturn hits and more parents lose their jobs and can't pay or can't pay in full. I guess some schools will be hit harder than others by this.

However, if schools have provided a really good quality of remote learning - and I think lots have really stepped up and done that, providing some live lessons, good pastoral support and other stuff too like a version of extra curricular, many parents will be keen to hang on if at all possible because they can see that generally the state sector haven't provided live lessons or the level of marking and personal support and the gap in lots of cases is quite noticeable. I'd think independent schools will continue to bust a gut to offer a good quality education at whatever level of lockdown/social distancing we are at, to keep parents feeling they are getting something different for their money.

But I'm sure lots of schools will close. The total pool of people paying for private education will drop and the strongest will survive.

Bank of England warns of deepest recession on record www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52566030

Yes, but it also says that the economy will rebound next year, and that the Bank expects 'no lasting damage' to the economy. For private schools, I think the ones that can ride out the next year will probably ultimately be OK - but there will undoubtedly be some that can't.

Yes. The 'bounce back' is assuming a second wave won't happen

There will still be social distancing into next year.

Today's Times Education Supplement:
www.tes.com/news/exclusive-fears-30-private-schools-will-go-bust

Exclusive: Fears 30% of private schools will go bust

Senior sources in the independent sector have told Tes that as many as 20-30 per cent of UK private schools could end up going out of business because of the coronavirus.

They are warning that the outbreak is pushing already struggling schools "over the edge".

Insiders expect the numbers closing between now and September "to be quite small", but say: "More will decide during the course of next academic year that they’re in an impossible position."
....
It is understood that some independent schools are now running out of cash and are likely to apply for loans in the summer. But schools' problems in predicting reopening dates and pupil numbers is likely to make it difficult for them to qualify for loans because they won't be able to demonstrate an ability to repay them.

..there are fears that bigger schools reliant on overseas boarders are also threatened. Sources say the longer the wait grows for these pupils to come back, the greater the risk that they will not come back at all.
..
Tes understands that even the largest and most well-known public schools might face difficulties, while others would reduce the number of subjects available for pupils in order to remain financially viable.

Or sell off some land or restructure staffing. My DDs old prep had an large increase in numbers when a small prep closed a few miles away. That was 2006. The parents got less than 1 terms notice. Hardly time to plan anything. DDs prep had lost more than normal at 11, so had space but the fees were considerably more.

One other point.. Non-teaching staff who have been put on furlough that I know were asked not to tell parents - i.e. dinner staff, teaching assistants, secretarial, even admissions clerks. Our school wrote to say sadly support staff were being furloughed.

They are offering a full day of online lessons Monday to Friday plus additional voluntary activities.

Another in administration: www.romseyadvertiser.co.uk/educationnews/18451397.st-marys-independent-school-southampton-administration/

It was clearly in trouble anyway.

Today's Telegraph (full article behind paywall)

One in 10 private schools facing closure as Covid crunch hits fees

Schools are struggling to pay staff and operating costs while facing the prospect of students not returning next year.

One in 10 private schools may have to close as a result of financial pressures heaped on them by coronavirus. Some schools have already told parents they will be increasing their fees to recoup extra costs, although fees will be frozen for next year.

Independent schools have faced a cacophony of woes this year. Almost all are offering discounts while they are shut during the pandemic – some by as much as 50pc – yet they are still having to pay staff wages in full and cover all their running costs.

Eton College, for example, has reduced its fees by a third for this summer term despite having ongoing operating costs of about £66m a year.

Seven private schools have closed as a result of the crisis, according to the Independent Schools Association, which represents more than 500 institutions. Hundreds more are likely to follow suit and 10pc of schools could be wiped out, said Leon Hady, an ex-headmaster who now runs Guide Education, a teacher training business.

He added: “The true impact will be revealed when schools start reopening. Lots of parents will be too scared to send their children back or will have decided to continue homeschooling them instead. My children are all at fee-paying schools and we definitely won’t be sending them back this term.”

Some parents will be unable to send children back even if they wish to, as certain schools will not be resuming bus services because of concerns about sanitising them, Mr Hady said.

Private schools will also face a blow to pupil numbers, as many overseas parents may be unwilling or unable to send their children back to Britain because of travel restrictions. Melanie Sanderson of The Good Schools Guide, which rates schools, said she was particularly worried about small, undersubscribed independents outside London and the South East.

Thank you suk44!

Is anyone a Telegraph subscriber so can access the full article?

here's the rest of the article
....
There are about 2,400 private schools across the country, meaning more than 200 would disappear if Mr Hady’s prediction came true. Parents who withdraw their children will still have to pay autumn term fees, as they must generally give a full term’s notice before withdrawing a pupil.

Although some schools are raising fees, Ms Sanderson said she did not imagine this would be widespread: “Fee inflation has been so huge over the past decade, if schools go any further they will price themselves out of the market – particularly as plenty of parents will be worse off now.”

She said it was a very real possibility that many parents would decide to homeschool their children. “You save on fees, uniforms, school buses and trips. We pay around £1,000 a term for our children to take the bus to school.”

Private schools were facing difficulties even before the crisis, owing to increases to the cost of teachers’ pensions, which have caused some smaller institutions to close.

Thanks

I can't believe parents would choose to home school over trying to get their children into a state school? It would be my idea of hell and children would miss out on the social interaction

I would tend to agree that schools from the midlands northwards might struggle. Near me in the SE though there are two small independents that take the type of child that would be a bit lost in a Larger school. Or the parents want a haven from a state school they don’t like. However with 100 on roll from yr to y6 they are not financially healthy. I think there a many schools like this. Cheap and cheerful but barely visible. Also slightly pointless as dc there don’t get into the grammars and the parents often cannot then get dc into the local girls senior independent school because they now recruit at roughly the same attainment level as the grammars. So the DC end up at the local secondary moderns. They could go boarding but it’s too costly for the parents. It’s simply not worth the money but parents always think DC will get to the grammar schools by paying.

Barely viable!