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Secondary education

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Original poster

DfE Data Cruncher predicts number of students who will get straight 9s

900 replies

noblegiraffe · 25/03/2017 21:12

His guess is.... 2

Not 2%,

2 kids in the whole country will get all 9s in their GCSEs.

So that's the new challenge for the MN boaster.

Ofqual reckon 0 kids will manage it. They clearly haven't met any MNetters' kids.

twitter.com/timleunig/status/845699774754017280

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goodbyestranger · 01/04/2017 09:45

It won't necessarily be based on that at all noble. Different schools use different methods. Our school has target grades and then predicted grades on top, to accommodate the new grading system.

lottachocca · 01/04/2017 09:47

Game on! Son is consistently getting 9s in all single science end of unit exams. He will be up for the challenge when he reads this
Why would you show this thread to your ds other than to put pressure on them to score all 9's.

Original poster
noblegiraffe · 01/04/2017 09:47

What do you think the predicted grades are based on in the absence of any actual data about exam performance?

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goodbyestranger · 01/04/2017 09:50

noble well you say that they're based on bonkers FFT data in your school and that's how you explain your own school's predictions of 9s.

OdinsLoveChild · 01/04/2017 09:56

To be fair goodbyestranger my head must have got it from somewhere too and if the fft data is offering such suggested grades then that would back up his predictions. Confused

Original poster
noblegiraffe · 01/04/2017 09:57

Actually, FFT are predicting (rather giving a target of) 9s, not my school who aren't sharing this data with parents.

I teach maths, kids are sitting the exams in a few weeks. We only have a reasonable (I hope!) idea of what the kids are going to get from a huge amount of mock data that has been shared nationally, and internal analysis of how our pupils are performing at this point in the year compared to this point in Y11 last year. We don't know where the 9 boundary will fall.

I don't know how English are doing their predictions for current Y11 because I don't think mock data was shared nationally.

For other subjects who aren't sitting new exams till at least next year, they won't have a clue. No mock data, no nothing. They really won't have a clue.

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goodbyestranger · 01/04/2017 09:58

I'd say it was very lazy purely to predict on that basis though Odins. I think our school has a better approach. New rules need a new approach, for the first years at least.

Original poster
noblegiraffe · 01/04/2017 10:02

goodbye you seem to be placing a lot of faith in your school's ability to do what even exam boards with 93,000 sets of exam results to analyse have refused to do.

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goodbyestranger · 01/04/2017 10:02

noble quite right that these 'predictions' should go through a school filter. What you are talking about are therefore not predictions in the sense they're being used on this thread.

BertrandRussell · 01/04/2017 10:08

So, what data did your school use to predict 9s, goodbyestranger?

goodbyestranger · 01/04/2017 10:09

Yes, while I don't mind whether DD gets 9s or not, I do have faith in the school's ability to predict, based on the fact that they've been remarkably accurate with my seven older DC who offer quite a good tester group in all sorts of respects :)

goodbyestranger · 01/04/2017 10:14

Can't remember exactly Bert - it says in the full Y10 report DD got last term. Seemed reasonable when I read it anyhow. I can't currently access this term's update on DD's current attainment because the school has a portal which I only ever look at at the end of term when there's an electronic report (ie twice a year) and I always forget the login. I think I now have to wait until next term for IT help but from what she says she's scoring 8s and 9s in her tests so it doesn't seem to wild and wacky to predict her 9s to aim for, even if she ends up with less.

goodbyestranger · 01/04/2017 10:15

too not to

Original poster
noblegiraffe · 01/04/2017 10:18

they've been remarkably accurate with my seven older DC

On a completely different exam for which we have reams of data and years of experience. Hmm

No one has any data or any experience for this new exam, because the government rushed it through before the 2015 General Election thought we didn't need any pilot studies.

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Original poster
noblegiraffe · 01/04/2017 10:19

what she says she's scoring 8s and 9s in her tests

No she isn't. The school is saying that she is, but basically they're making stuff up.

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goodbyestranger · 01/04/2017 10:22

noble I'm fine with DDs predictions and I don't care greatly if she undershoots. Blimey why all the hoity toity? DD is very clever by comparison to my other DC also very steady it seems quite right she has top predictions. Can we leave it there? I'm sure that's how sensible schools are predicting 9s. It's just not that hard, you're just making it hard.

hardboiled · 01/04/2017 10:24

DS attends an independent school that has never given him or us a single grade prediction. They only say he's working at the expected level and that's it. In many ways it's better.

OdinsLoveChild · 01/04/2017 10:25

goodbyestranger It would be interesting to see the results from your school in August to see how their predictions stand when compared with the actual results.

I'm predicting massive disappointment across the board at dds school along with no grade 9s or possibly 1 grade 9 gained naturally by dd

I hope I'm wrong actually I hope I'm right because I like to be right

lottachocca · 01/04/2017 10:25

Goodbye - is it your ds or dd getting the 9's, you have changed your child's sex half way through this thread? Or do you have twins?

sashh · 01/04/2017 10:27

I haven't misunderstood at all. Those at the top end - and I mean precisely that, the top end - will by definition get a 9

Yes but only the top 20% of those who would get an A/A, it's no longer about your own performance but that of others. So for English language, which is taken by virtually every student, in 2016 about 3% got A, about 10% got an A, under the new system the top 20% of those will get a 9.

For some other subjects where only a few hundred students take GCSE and where the number of A* grades is a much higher percentage the number of 9 grades may well be in single figures.

goodbyestranger · 01/04/2017 10:28

I have four DSs and four DDs so occasionally I do muddle their names/ gender :) My Y10 is a DD. DD4. Apologies if I mistyped - easily done.

Original poster
noblegiraffe · 01/04/2017 10:29

goodbye just because you're fine with it, it doesn't make it fine. Your school is apparently forcing teachers to make up grade boundaries for individual pieces of work to give grades to students which are meaningless and may give a false impression of their ability.

I expect it was the sort of school that also got teachers to give sublevels to individual pieces of work. It's all bollocks.

And it's lying to parents and students. I really disagree with it.

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hardboiled · 01/04/2017 10:30

So that would be 2.6% with a 9 in English. Except if the exam is harder it would be less.

goodbyestranger · 01/04/2017 10:31

sash I suppose I'm perhaps unconsciously comparing the 9s to the old Board Awards which some of my DC (and others at their school) got.

goodbyestranger · 01/04/2017 10:36

noble what bollocks. Forcing indeed. I know you strongly dislike grammars but you're letting that old hysteria creep back in. The teachers are completely grounded, very experienced and I think my trust in them will be vindicated, at least in broad terms.