DfE Data Cruncher predicts number of students who will get straight 9s

[noblegiraffe]

His guess is.... 2

Not 2%,

2 kids in the whole country will get all 9s in their GCSEs.

So that's the new challenge for the MN boaster.

Ofqual reckon 0 kids will manage it. They clearly haven't met any MNetters' kids.

twitter.com/timleunig/status/845699774754017280

Er yes hertsandessex I think even I got that far :) But hopefulmum said 'A 9 is higher than a current A and.... no one has ever achieved higher than an A in the past'. Then, when I said piffle, she said I was wrong. I don't think I am. She's confused - although it's quite simple really.

Well the paper is harder than any previous paper so yeah, a 9 may well be higher than any previous top of A star score. We just don't know, which is kind of the point....

How many kids that got 100% last year will get the score required for a 9?

"hopefulmum of course it's not higher than the top mark of an A*"

Of course it is- the exams are harder.

I think maybe common sense is required here rather than a Mystic Meg approach to the new grading system. Those at the top end of the A* band will by definition get a 9. It's just not difficult at all.

Bertrand your logic is flawed.

"Those at the top end of the A* band will by definition get a 9"

You are obviously privy to information the rest of us don't have. FIr enough,

It's not obvious and wouldn't be necessary to draw that conclusion Bert.

You're all saying the same. Exams will be harder, therefore whoever gets lets say 100% will be achieving higher than a previous 100% from an academic point of view. But the mark will be the same.

But the kids who got 100% last year won't all be getting 100% this year. They may mostly get 95% which might not be enough for a 9.

Good lord, this thread has degenerated into gibberish. In the past no one has got more than an A*? Well, duh.

goodbye I hope you're grateful that someone has explained (or tried to) old style GCSE marking to you! Don't suppose it's something you've ever thought about before

Well ds1 probably won't be one of them. Can barely get him into lessond right now

titchy I'm pretty sure less than 3% of people got 100% in the old GCSE exams. (3% at my dd's school would be 6 or 7 people - that didn't happen.) Do you think that more than 3.4 (or whatever the percentage comes out as) % of students are going to get OVER 95% on these new, harder (as everyone keeps repeating) exams? If not, they'll get 9s.

I was demonstrating a point. No I'm quite sure less than 3.4% got full marks last year. But it's kind of irrelevant isn't it? The two exams are different, so high marks in one - let's say 95%, is no indicator that a child will get the highest band of marks in another.

Second point - 3% at your school also irrelevant. It's 3.4% of the entire cohort nationally. Your school could be hugely poor - your top 3% might only get 6. The highly super selective next door could have 20% getting a 9.

Students at the school where I teach are being predicted 9, I know that three students in my y9 tutor group are predicted all 8 and 9. It's predicted based on past (SATs?) exams, but I'm not sure exactly how it works. I know that these students will be put under pressure by themselves, their parents, and probably the school if SLT don't realise how ridiculous it is to achieve these grades.

Interesting. Not sure how anybody really knows though on the basis that no boards have published any grade boundaries yet- certainly not in the subject I teach anyway.

Game on! Son is consistently getting 9s in all single science end of unit exams. He will be up for the challenge when he reads this.

The school are making a mistake if they are grading anyone 9

I think maybe common sense is required here rather than a Mystic Meg approach to the new grading system. Those at the top end of the A band will by definition get a 9. It's just not difficult at all.*

Well you have misunderstood it.

Currently there is an unlimited number of grade As, if someone gets a particular mark they get that grade, if 100 people sit the GCSE and all get 95% or more they all get a grade A.

Under the new scheme 90 people will get the new grade 8 and 10 will get grade 9, they will be the ones with the top 10 scores.

"Game on! Son is consistently getting 9s in all single science end of unit exams. He will be up for the challenge when he reads this."

Blimey. Do people really talk/think like this?

I haven't misunderstood at all. Those at the top end - and I mean precisely that, the top end - will by definition get a 9.

I think you misunderstand, or aren't reading carefully enough.

Wyf being predicted all 8s and 9s is no worse in terms of pressure than being predicted all A*s.

As I've said before, I'm not going to be putting pressure on DD at all. I haven't with my other DC and I'm not going to start now. There must be plenty of parents out there like me - I don't know why there's an assumption that all high achieving DC must have a pressurizing parent behind them. That's a bit of an insult to perfectly capable DC, never mind parents who have more productive things to do with their time.

BertrandRussell yes people and schools are thinking like that.

Last year dds school got 79% a-c including English and Maths. Out of 220 students around 60 gained a or a in at least 1 subject. I think thats around 22% gained an a or a, sorry if thats way out maths isn't my strong point .

This year the head is predicting more will achieve the top score and he says he is confident that 20% of his students will achieve at least 1 grade 9 and at least 30% will gain several grades 7 or 8. As I understood it only the top 3ish% in the country will get awarded 9s but he is adamant I'm wrong.

The school reports sent out this week are full of predicted grade 9s for a good portion of the students I know. Several are predicted to gain grade 9s in 8 or 9 subjects and I'm flabbergasted really that they are predicting 9s at all especially given the very average grades that have been achieved historically at the school.

Ive sat dd down and shown her all the information I have on the new grades and explained that if those 9s actually turn out to be 7s instead then thats fine. She's less worried now as she felt pressured to achieve that 9 grade. The university she wants to go to has issued a statement saying that the new accepted grade will be a 7 to replace the A grade so she's a bit happier.

Schools should not be predicting 9s at all, I can't get my head around why they would.

Odins your HT seems to have an unusual approach in that case. I don't think a relatively sensible HT comparing that sort of historical evidence and the guidance from the DfE could come to the conclusion that several of his upcoming cohort will achieve in the top tiniest % nationally with 8 or 9 9s. He seems a very optimistic sort of fellow.

Of course schools should be predicting 9s, appropriately though.

It'll be based on FFT data. Our FFT data is bonkers, loads of 9s predicted for my top set Y7

FFT relies on actual data from the previous Y11 cohort, I don't think they know what to do without it.

I think schools are being unfair if they are giving 9 predictions to kids before anyone has even sat the exam. There are kids who really care about their predictions, and if that prediction is subsequently lowered to an 8 or 7 once actual data rolls in (or they don't achieve it because it was bonkers), they'll take it personally. They'll see the lowering of/failing to meet the prediction as something they've done wrong, rather than the prediction being wrong in the first place.