DfE Data Cruncher predicts number of students who will get straight 9s

[noblegiraffe]

His guess is.... 2

Not 2%,

2 kids in the whole country will get all 9s in their GCSEs.

So that's the new challenge for the MN boaster.

Ofqual reckon 0 kids will manage it. They clearly haven't met any MNetters' kids.

twitter.com/timleunig/status/845699774754017280

It's nothing to do with grammars, goodbye I've been posting about schools lying to parents with made-up grades for years.

I don't understand how any school, however splendid or grammary, can make predictions with no data.

Years of old GCSEs mean that most schools can make a pretty good stab at predicting results in them. But the new ones? I just can't see how it's possible.

noble since my DCs school has been pretty much bang on for my elder seven DC, any idea of lying is absurd.

Ds2's grammar school is fairly doom and gloom about them. Or fairly honest that they just don't know. Ds2 is year 10.

FFS goodbye your other 7 DC sat a completely different exam which was well understood. Do you not understand the difference here?

And incidentally, even if your school ends up bang-on with its predictions, that doesn't mean that they were right to give grade 8s and 9s for science tests.

Well you're not a teacher Bert and I'm not cowed by you trying to do the school down by applying silly adjectives. I have never called it splendid. It's a super selective. I'm far too familiar with it to be in awe of it, although I do respect the judgment of the teachers making these predictions. I doubt the least able in the cohort are being predicted straight 9s and I doubt the most able in the cohort are being predicted 5/6s. This brave new world isn't that brave, or that new, just moderately so.

As an example, my ds's maths teacher said at parents evening that he would have confidently predicted ds an A last year- an A* with a following wind. But this year he was predicting 7s for his A students, with the hope of a few 8s and even a 9. But he didn't have enough information to predict more specifically. And he's a GCSE marker!

Not completely different noble, there's just some AS stuff added in. All my DC have done linear exams too, even the oldest.

Bert good point. A lot of teachers are exam markers. That helps.

Oh, don't be silly, nobody's doing anything down. It was you introduced the grammar school thing!

I don't see how Eton could predict without data!

"Bert good point. A lot of teachers are exam markers. That helps."

Not according to ds's teacher.

noble I'm not sure what you mean about science tests? DD is Y10 not Y11 so all her exams will be graded numerically. They're bound to mark internal tests numerically. Perhaps I misunderstand your point.

Not completely different noble, there's just some AS stuff added in.

Love the idea of someone who doesn't have a clue telling me, who is actually teaching the new GCSE with 11 years teaching experience how different they are to last year

Bert I introduced grammar, you introduced 'splendid'.

I can't really comment about the ability of teachers I don't know, only those that I do.

They're bound to mark internal tests numerically.

They're not bound to do anything. Marking internal tests with GCSE grades is stupid. Even more stupid when the GCSE grades are for an exam that hasn't even been sat yet.

Well noble you don't know exactly what I know about the new maths spec do you? You're just making an assumption that I'm clueless :)

noble I have a feeling that my DCs' school isn't clueless either. I'm very glad my DC are there, and not at yours, where everything seems bonkers or stupid. Life here seems very calm by comparison and certainly a lot less negative.

You said that the new gcse wasn't completely different, just a bit of AS stuff added in

Which suggests that you know jack. Even before we get onto the change in numerical grades.

DS' (25) English teacher collared me yesterday to tell me (again) that he wants him to do English A level. Ds is consistently getting 8s and 9s but the teacher said it's impossible for him to really say what an 8 or 9 actually looks like.

Ds is 15, not 25!

DCs' school isn't clueless either

Ok. So your school has managed to establish grade boundaries for 8 and 9 for an internal science test, when the exam boards refused to establish grade boundaries for 8 and 9 for 93,000 sets of exam data because they said it wouldn't be reliable.

Maybe Edexcel should hire them? I mean, even exam boards don't set grade boundaries until they've seen the national picture because they can't establish in advance how difficult an exam will be, but your school can, so either they're making stuff up and passing it off as fact, or they can do what no one else in the business can.

Any school which says they know what a 9 looks like is fucking stupid.

No noble it suggests simply that I'm more casual in my language than you are.

I think a number may already work for Edexcel. Not sure.

I never knew being a teacher was so hard until you came along noble. DCs' teachers make it look a doddle by comparison. And they get decent results, so they can't be that rubbish.

cowgirls or less fucking stupid than others perhaps?

Just fucking stupid goodbyestranger