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Secondary education

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Original poster

DfE Data Cruncher predicts number of students who will get straight 9s

900 replies

noblegiraffe · 25/03/2017 21:12

His guess is.... 2

Not 2%,

2 kids in the whole country will get all 9s in their GCSEs.

So that's the new challenge for the MN boaster.

Ofqual reckon 0 kids will manage it. They clearly haven't met any MNetters' kids.

twitter.com/timleunig/status/845699774754017280

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OreoDream · 30/03/2017 09:10

Oops, I actually meant to post that on the other thread!

hardboiled · 30/03/2017 16:17

I think the whole thing is rubbish:

  • For the whole world, a grade of 9 is interpreted as a 9 out of 10. That's why it's a ridiculous system to have changed to numbers and have put 9 as the top. It will require additional explanation in foreign universities and employers.
  • The other problem is that 7, which is a respectable A, will be seen soon as a B is seen today. It's going to happen.
  • If the plan is to introduce 10 later on, what will that do to the kids who got a 9 when that was the highest they could get?
  • The prediction of how many students will get all 9s is impossible to make because many schools are staying with letters for their IGCSEs, for example, DS is going to have a mix of numbers and letters. So all those children will never get all 9s even if some of them could.
tiggytape · 30/03/2017 18:38

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Original poster
noblegiraffe · 30/03/2017 22:29

I don't think they'll introduce a 10 given the news that possibly only 2 kids will get straight 9s. What will be the need?!

Apparently when the comment was originally made about the number of straight lines, to a bunch of independent school heads, they looked utterly appalled. Guess they'll have some managing of parental expectations to do!

OP posts:
Original poster
noblegiraffe · 30/03/2017 22:29

Straight nines, not straight lines!

OP posts:
PiqueABoo · 31/03/2017 00:23

Is the whole world really itching to slap 'out of ten' on any unaccompanied nine? I think there is more fun here:

I've got a music grade 8

goodbyestranger · 31/03/2017 08:12

It's achieving a string of unbroken top grades which has always been the challenge noble, and despite lots of talk on MN about every other DC getting straight As, in fact not that many do - a rogue A often creeps in. Straight As are still a relatively rare prize nationally (and not common even at top independents if you read their results news) and clearly straight 9s are going to be even more exacting, but
upping the grade bands to include a 10 is a different thing - it's allowing for even more stringency/ inflation on an individual subject basis, not to do with this tiny number of two DC calculated by the DFE to get straight 9s. It seems to show a serious lack of confidence on the part of the DfE not to just stick the 10 in in the first place. 9 is a very silly number.

BertrandRussell · 31/03/2017 10:07

"They'll be whole threads titled "So Confused About GCSE Grades" which go something like "We've just been to pick up DS's grades from school and he's been awarded ten grade 9's. I have no idea if this is any good""

Grin It'll be such a relief for them won't it? It must be awful not to have SATs to be .......confused.......about.

Laniakea · 31/03/2017 11:08

How about "my dd has seven 9s, two 8s and a 7 is there any point in thinking about apply to a RG? Her Oxbridge dreams are OVER"

Grin
GetAHaircutCarl · 31/03/2017 12:26

goodbye is right.
Even the most selective private schools don't get swathes of kids getting all A*s.
And no one cares or expects anything different.

I suspect the story about the independent HTs reactions is just that Wink.

In any event lots of them do IGCSE and won't be changing over in the near future ( and who can blame them with this idiocy going on).

BertrandRussell · 31/03/2017 12:32

It would be lovely if there were as many angst ridden threads about the kids who are going to get 4s and 5s as there are about the ones who are going to get 8s and 9s.

Original poster
noblegiraffe · 31/03/2017 12:57

I dunno Carl, this quote seems to back it up:

"When told about Dr Leunig’s tweet, her successor Charlotte Avery, who is also headmistress of St Mary’s School, Cambridge, said schools had not known grade 9 would be this difficult.

She told Tes: “If the top grade is so unachievable, I think this is setting the grade far too high.

“We are almost setting up many of them to feel that they are failing, if that is the level of difficulty.

“It demoralises the school and the child and the parents, who are all working so hard to make education so enjoyable and successful.”"

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goodbyestranger · 31/03/2017 12:58

Bert who on this thread is actually angsty though? I find the number 9 daft but beyond that what is there to be even mildly angsty about? I think you're imputing angst where there is none.

I like the new exams, but I've said repeatedly that they're very harsh on the lower end of the ability range. If that was my patch professionally then I'd be very angsty and pushing very, very hard indeed for a new splinter regime, geared appropriately to those DC. To quibble about 4s and 5s is a waste of energy which could be better directed elsewhere.

hardboiled · 31/03/2017 13:13

It would be lovely if there were as many angst ridden threads about the kids who are going to get 4s and 5s as there are about the ones who are going to get 8s and 9s.

There have been more than one thread about the confusing pass mark.

hertsandessex · 31/03/2017 19:28

As a benchmark out of 150,000 people worldwide taking the International Baccelaureate only 146 got the full score of 45 last year. Almost nobody takes the IB expecting to get full 7s for each subject and I think the GCSE will end up like this. It used to be a bit like that with the old O levels and early days of GCSEs when even some very bright people couldn't get straight As. I don't think people realise how hard it will be to get 9s across the board. Expectations have changed over the last 10-20 years and will gradually move back the other way.

goodbyestranger · 31/03/2017 20:13

I don't think there's going to be anything gradual about it.

OdinsLoveChild · 31/03/2017 20:25

I've asked dd's Headteacher today about the predicted 2 students to gain 9's across the board and he is claiming as no one actually knows what a 9 will look like theyre going to continue to predict the usual percentage of top grades so around 20% gaining a 9.

Theres going to be some very upset students and parents on results day. 1 parent is bragging about her sons predicted 10 grade 9's on his report and my own dd has several 9's predicted. At least I'm actually thinking a 7 is more likely than a 9 but lots of parents are actually feeling confident in their childs predicted grades Shock This is all such a mess. Angry

Devilishpyjamas · 31/03/2017 20:32

20% can't get 9's though can they? I thought that was the point?

Ds2's school has gone the other way and is predicting terrible marks for all.

hardboiled · 31/03/2017 20:34

I thought it was 20% of those with 7 and above.
In one subject. Then do the maths for that to happen in ALL the subjects. That's what it's about.

goodbyestranger · 31/03/2017 21:27

Odins there is a vast difference between the top 20% in any given subject being predicted a 9 and the top 20% getting 9s in all subjects. Only a tiny, tiny percentage got straight A*s even a decade ago - these imprecise statements cause a lot of confusion.

hopefulmumofone · 31/03/2017 21:39

It's the top 20% of those who achieve a grade 7 or above that will be awarded a grade 9, not the top 20% of all those taking the exam. That works out at approximately 3.4% of all those taking the exam that will be awarded a 9.
A 9 is higher than a current A and as no one has ever achieved higher than an A in the past I'm amazed at any school predicting them at all. There are going to be some devastated students and parents come August.

goodbyestranger · 31/03/2017 21:47

hopefulmum of course it's not higher than the top mark of an A*.

Also, I'm a parent of a DC predicted a row of 9s and I can say with complete certainty that I won't care tuppence if DD achieves less than her predictions, especially if she manages nothing less than an 8. That would be all that she needs for any future plans, however competitive. I just can't see a big deal between 8s or 9s and I've made that clear to DD who also isn't going all out for 9s. I don't think she's that bothered either.

hopefulmumofone · 31/03/2017 21:51

Goodbye, you are wrong.

goodbyestranger · 31/03/2017 22:02

You must mean about the 9 being higher than an A? Ok, well happy to be disabused - but how could a DC scoring the highest possible mark in an A grade have scored 'lower' than DC now getting a 9?

hertsandessex · 31/03/2017 22:30

Goodbye - not this straightforward but for example in the past if you got 80% you got an A*. Now if you get 80-90% you get an 8 and if you get 90%+ you get a 9. There will be a lot more 8s and 9s.