DfE Data Cruncher predicts number of students who will get straight 9s

[noblegiraffe]

His guess is.... 2

Not 2%,

2 kids in the whole country will get all 9s in their GCSEs.

So that's the new challenge for the MN boaster.

Ofqual reckon 0 kids will manage it. They clearly haven't met any MNetters' kids.

twitter.com/timleunig/status/845699774754017280

I expect any DD with 10 9s will have a photo in the paper, assuming whoever's DD it is is one of only two.

At the risk of having tomatoes thrown at me, I'm very glad to have so many East Europeans over here - makes the UK far more civilized.

Also thank you for all your advice in the past noble, when I look at DS1 in his sixth form uniform a lot of your generous sharing of knowledge got him there.

Thank you for this, MrSlant it's very kind of you to say so!

Thanks also to others who have posted in support and said nice things about my posts! I actually nearly quit MN a few weeks back, MNHQ agreed to delete all my posts and everything. I'm glad I didn't, because my extensive posting history doesn't appear to have been a complete waste of time after all :)

doesn't alter the fact that she's started an extraordinary number of threads about education recently, all of which are negative

As a head's up, goodbye when the White Paper about grammar schools and the responses to the Green Paper consultation are published, you can be sure I'll get a thread or two out of that as well. If you don't like my threads, feel free to boycott them! If you want positive threads about the state of education at the moment (hurrah for budget cuts? woohoo all the teachers have quit?) then perhaps you could start some yourself.

Back on topic, the Mathematical Association tweeted this evening:

"We're concerned about the apparent fall in applications to study post 16 maths. We'd be interested to hear the position in your institution."

The very first response was "I had a lot turned off Alevel maths after we did our mocks in November. Students were pretty horrified by the difficulty of the new papers"

"we have gone from 115 signed up this time last year for A level Maths to 53 this year. They all think it's too difficult."

Grade 9 came up "Seeing this on The Student Room. Teachers are reluctant to predict 9s and students get the impression they may not be good enough for FM."

The loss of AS was also given as a factor in a decline in Further Maths entries "End of AS levels likely to cause a drop in FM. My brightest mathematicians reluctant to use 2 out of 3 options for maths."

Full thread here:
mobile.twitter.com/Mathematical_A/status/848595894891139072

But basically, other teachers saying the sorts of things I was saying upthread.

Don't let the buggers get you down.

I think noble shares a characteristic with many maths teachers - which is that they know their subject does not appeal/is not easily accessible to all but they still do their bloody best to get each child to reach their best (or is that only my experience of the much derided secondary modern?)
FWIW, as a governor, I know that our predictions for this summer's results are considerably more than conservative....

I'm putting my money on a lot more than 2 kids with straight 9s. Top 3% in the country - for a very bright child with good support and good exam technique? Just a hunch but I reckon those 9s will cluster more than the number crunching predicts.

I wonder if the number of GCSEs taken by top achievers might go down as the new system beds in though, more challenge and more cachet in going for 9s than going for 12 GCSEs?

Just sorry for children and teachers caught up in the chaos of the changes.

I don't know if you've seen the research, but teacher assessment is notoriously unreliable.

I had a lot turned off Alevel maths after we did our mocks in November. Students were pretty horrified by the difficulty of the new papers

So under the old system from what Noble and others are saying,

1. teachers cannot assess the potential ability of their own students for A level maths, (I suspect because they just used GCSE past paper questions and don't try giving more stretching questions which pick out potential)
2. students are put off by difficulty and in the mindset that they need to be able to recognise and do with ease all the questions on the paper.

So generally students have not developed the resilience or confidence required to persevere when problem solving gets hard and they are not scoring high marks even if they enjoy the subject. Plus they don't have faith in their teachers to tell them if they are on the right track.

No wonder so many students are underprepared for tackling difficulty at A level and beyond.

I think that this is one thing that certain selective public schools do better. They regularly give very hard questions or exam papers where many students score poorly but this does not prevent most students doing maths in the sixth form and getting very good grades.

Noble it is the past system that has created the situation of this temporary fall in take up of maths this year. GCSE students have been taught that lack of mistakes is the primary aim of a subject like maths. Teachers rely on public exam results and grade boundaries rather than their own teaching judgement so that is what the students and their parents place most confidence in rather than what the teachers say about their ability.
You hopefully will embark on a change that means that this is only temporary and potential STEM students will not be set up to feel inadequate later on in their education.

Plus the other subjects will catch up with the new grading system so it may well swing the other way.

Actually, you're wrong, giving students a difficult paper that they can't answer most of doesn't lead to a decrease in A-level take-up.

I taught top set a couple of years ago. Every single one of them went on to take A-level maths. I remember when they were faced with their first further maths paper and it was a similar reaction. Except I was able to reassure them that it was meant to be that hard, and crucially, that they only needed 17% for a C and 50% for an A. That really was the key.

This time kids came out of a mock shell-shocked, no one was able to reassure them that they had done well 'er, let's see how other schools performed when Edexcel collate the data' and they still aren't convinced about the grade boundaries, and confidence will have been especially knocked where some schools have converted the grade boundaries for an old paper into numbers ignoring the fact that the paper has got harder, so the boundaries are ridiculously high.

Actually, you're wrong, giving students a difficult paper that they can't answer most of doesn't lead to a decrease in A-level take-up

Then that's fine. Although your next paragraph and the previous posts contradict this.

Except I was able to reassure them that it was meant to be that hard, and crucially, that they only needed 17% for a C and 50% for an A. That really was the key..

Basically again it was about the grades for them rather than the mindset about improving by tackling harder questions.
I would prefer the approach 'you only got 17% but next time you will get more as these harder questions are achievable'

You don't think that being able to reassure kids that they weren't about to fail a public exam is important when it comes to deciding their next steps?

Actually looking at the grade boundaries for further maths, they're probably not hugely far off where they will be for the new higher paper.

Honest not trying to suck up to the teacher .....but I also have appreciated Noble's advice in the past and hope to continue to hear more sage advice in the future!

Actually, you're wrong, giving students a difficult paper that they can't answer most of doesn't lead to a decrease in A-level take-up

I'll amend this because it's not quite what I meant.

Actually, you're wrong, giving students a difficult paper that they can't answer most of doesn't necessarily lead to a decrease in A-level take-up.

Thanks, Lotta :)

How is that number even possible? Level 9's will be awarded to the top 10% of level 8 students so that in turn means that only 20 students IN THE WHOLE COUNTRY will get level 8's??!!

The point is that only two students will get all level 9s. Even if you take your 10% of Level 8s getting a 9 for as a figure, (which isn't actually right) you can't say that it would be the same 10% getting a 9 in each subject. Therefore you can't interpret the figure downwards.

Surely it is better and healthier to have a transparent grading system where the percentage achieved in the exam is the grade?

It's going to be fascinating how this all pans out. I am hoping that it will work out well for DS who has dyscalculia but who really shines at other subjects.

Bobo that's a stupid idea because the exam isn't exactly the same difficultly each year. One year's 70% is next year's 65%

You don't think that being able to reassure kids that they weren't about to fail a public exam is important when it comes to deciding their next steps?

That is up to confidence in the teacher and teaching plus revision time left following a mock in November.

noblegiraffe - other systems manage it. It has the huge merit of removing a variable (grade boundaries) that is inherently meaningless.

For maths and English isn't it the top 3-ish% of 8s getting 9s? Nothing like 10%

I'm going to start a thread inviting the owners of current year 11s to put down their predictions, in English and maths, what they need and what they hope for that we can revisit in August. Do you think people will join in?