DfE Data Cruncher predicts number of students who will get straight 9s

[noblegiraffe]

His guess is.... 2

Not 2%,

2 kids in the whole country will get all 9s in their GCSEs.

So that's the new challenge for the MN boaster.

Ofqual reckon 0 kids will manage it. They clearly haven't met any MNetters' kids.

twitter.com/timleunig/status/845699774754017280

Noble - I've just sat and read through this (yes, even your timeline :o) and I can say without a shadow of a doubt that I would be largely oblivious to all of this, even though I'm a Y10 parent, were it not for your efforts. So thank you. And you're right - heads should roll. It's the reason the word omnishambles exists.

Shirley frankly I couldn't care less how you characterize my posts, particularly since that's not what I've said at all and have just as much of an interest in education generally as noble does and have been part of it for rather longer than her. I'm simply one example of very many parents like me who aren't succumbing to hysteria about the long overdue changes in education which are as much an opportunity as anything else. My DD is only relevant because this is a grade 9 thread and she happens to be predicted grade 9s. She's not been produced like a rabbit out of a hat on a thread which has nothing to do with grade 9s so bugger that.

Also, what the heck is the point of sacking people? What an incredibly negative approach.

Goodbye, are you a secondary maths teacher, with experience of teaching middle / lower groups? I know that you hint about employment in education - I seem to remember a selective school?

I am inclined to trust noble, because she is absolutely open about her background and why she holds the views she does. They also accord pretty accurately with the views of other good maths teachers I know in comprehensive schools. As I am uncertain of your credentials, other than those of being a parent with a very bright DD, I tend to ascribe less authority to them EXCEPT where they are simply expressed as the parent of a bright DD, in which role I entirely accept that you speak with genuine knowledge.

And also Shirley, the exact point is that everyone else is not concerned! noble is and clearly has a following but noble has started more threads about various educational topics in the past few months than I've had hot dinners and each one of them has been complaining about this or that. Some people in education are a bit more positive that's all, which is probably good for the kids.

The sad thing is that many maths teachers will lose, or will leave, their jobs as a result of this - whereas those responsible for the implementation (which, however good the new system might be once established, has clearly been at best sub-optimal) will retain theirs.

can't keepawayforever I don't think I've hinted at anything although I have been asked and not chosen to answer for which I don't apologize largely because I've also been stalked/ outed several times which is not ok. Just assume I know nothing and have no experience beyond having had eight DC in a super selective over the past sixteen years. That alone can give one a reasonable insight into that least that sector of education and the changes which have taken place during that time.

Can't, why will any maths teachers loose their jobs over guys implementation? I don't understand.

Goodbye, you have said "have just as much of an interest in education generally as noble does and have been part of it for rather longer than her."

From this, I infer that you are, or were, a teacher - as you say that your interest in and knowledge of education is at least as deep as noble's, who is a teacher. If you genuinely have no interest in and knowledge of education other than as a parent, then the statement I have quoted is untrue.

Empress, teachers have targets for their classes, and yearly appraisals. Where there is a huge gap between target and actual grades, even when the reasons for this might be to do with shoddy implementation over which the teacher has no control, then this may well lead to teachers being, at best 'under greater scrutiny / denied progression', and at worst to capability and removal from post. Anecdotally, there have been some 'interesting' moves / retirements / departures of Y6 teachers based on last year's SATs results, for very similar reasons.

Goodbye, the only teachers and parents I know who are not concerned are those who don't know about what is happening, or have wrongly grasped some part of it - e.g. those who think that a 9 is simply a rebranded A*.

There is a simply staggering amount of ignorance / misunderstanding, but i have not encountered anyone who fully understands the changes who is not concerned.

I should also clarify that my acquaintance, both of teachers and parents, is of those who work in / educate their children in comprehensive schools. I don't know what the views are of those who teach in or have children who attend superselectives.

Apologies, posted too soon: so Goodbye, it may be that the difference between the perception shared by Noble and I, and the perception that you have, is that those involved in super-selective education are, in general, unconcerned.

However, that does only cover a very, very narrow range of both teachers and pupils.

"I've also been stalked/ outed several times which is not ok."

Utter, utter bollocks.

To be fair cantkeepaway this thread is about the very narrow range of children in the country who might get straight 9s. Two. That's a super-selective group, if there ever was one!

There are other threads about the problems of this new system for DC at the other end of the academic scale. I read those too. I am sympathetic, but I don't have much to say, it's not something that I am well informed about.

So we have a thread here, where concern about how this might impact highly academic students was mooted. Several posters with highly academic DC have popped on the thread and basically said: don't worry about it, our little darlings will survive, whatever.

Goodbye, I don't think it can possibly out you if you say 'I have taught / am teaching in a superselective grammar school' - there are so many hundreds of people that could apply to that your identity is safe.

Nioble is a Maths teacher in a comprehensive - again a large pool.

I am a primary teacher - again, a large pool.

Bert is a redhead who lives in Kent - again, I'd be hard-pushed to out her on that alone.

However, to claim expertise - in fact superior expertise - without offering anything whatever to back it up just makes you seem rather unconvincing and the very opposite of authoritative.

At my ds's school, like many others, most parents would be unable/unwilling to understand the complex nuances of the new grading. The sort of parents who have children at super selectives are not typical.

Epress, i apologise. I thought that the focus of the thread had mkoved away from the original very narrow focus on those 2 children, onto how the botched implementation makes a lot of things that should be quite clear and straightforward extremely murky.

On a personal note, i have a decently able mathematical DS - got through to the second level of the Maths challenge, with a high Gold - who will now nopt take Maths A-level because of the implementation of the new system. Faced wth a predicted A* in the alternative subject, and a very conservative mock result in Maths, he's gone 'no, I'm obviously not that good at maths, I'll do the alternative'. Both teachers put their own viewpoint, assuring him that he was good enough to do the A-level, but he has acted on the data (however erroneous) in front of him, and who can blame him for that?

noble has started more threads about various educational topics in the past few months than I've had hot dinners and each one of them has been complaining about this or that.

Really unfair to accuse Noble of negativity. Her recent threads have included one with lots of study tips for Year 11s and she regularly gives helpful, constructive advice on here to people who post with Maths-related problems.

I bow to your experience of superselectives, Goodbye, as I've only had one child attend one. I do have experience of a range of schools, however, as between them, my DC have attended a superselective, a highly academic independent and a state comprehensive. All the DC are of similar ability but their experiences varied enormously.

In the light of this range of experience, no way would I be so breezy about dismissing others' concerns based on one narrow view of education. Narrow because superselectives educate only a very small proportion of the brightest pupils in the country.

Bert ironically, unless you're watching me on every thread over the past few years since my HT told me that a lot of nonsense was being talked about our school on MN and I came on MN to see what it was, you can't know how many times I've been outed. Indeed I've been outed to the extent that an individual DCs GCSE and A level grades have been (wrongly) posted up on these boards. As I say, unless you're obsessed with following my every move - which I very much doubt - you're not in a position to say bollocks.

can'tkeepawayforever you really are overdoing this. You can think whatever you like it's a free world etc.

That's no problem at all, goodbye. I will.

Of course we are all, really, big hairy truckers with far too much time on our hands....

Shirley the thread is about grade 9s. How often does that need to be said?

The fact that noble gives maths advice freely and to great effect doesn't alter the fact that she's started an extraordinary number of threads about education recently, all of which are negative and some of which have become fairly emotional. That isn't the only vibe in education at the moment, so fair play to say it.

Sorry - re Grade 9s - i don't get your point.

Are you saying the only kids with the ability to get grade 9s will be in superselectives so your view is the only one that counts?

Hi Shirley sorry you don't get the point.

In answer to your question: no.

Shirley- yep. Bang on.

And the only children that matter are the high ability ones. Devil take the hindmost and all.

Well since my answer was no....

Also Bert, what exactly are you doing to help move the powers that be towards a more appropriate regime for the less able? I've asked this obliquely a couple of times but all I get back is italics. It's not ok for those at the bottom end - so what's the plan, since you've said that's your patch.

I was wondering if in August 2018 we read a post saying my DD has got 10 9s, it will 'Out them'.....

However, after we will told only 9,000 people will come from Eastern Europe to the UK post 2004 i am skeptical about Government estimates !

Based on the 9,000 and the 1.5 million that did come to the UK I guess '300 ' pupil will attain all level 9 ! We will see.