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DfE Data Cruncher predicts number of students who will get straight 9s

900 replies

noblegiraffe · 25/03/2017 21:12

His guess is.... 2

Not 2%,

2 kids in the whole country will get all 9s in their GCSEs.

So that's the new challenge for the MN boaster.

Ofqual reckon 0 kids will manage it. They clearly haven't met any MNetters' kids.

twitter.com/timleunig/status/845699774754017280

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Allthebestnamesareused · 03/04/2017 09:39

Please don't stop posting noble If you do go and are going elsewhere please let us know first!

I always see yours as the voice of reason and the one in the know among the education posts.

Danglingmod · 03/04/2017 09:43

Not in full because (taken with other information) it might be reasonably outing.

Ds already has his maths result (took igcse in Jan). For English he's predicted 5-7 for lit and 6-8 for lang.

His (independent school) teachers won't be any more specific than that because they genuinely don't know. They're not predicting anyone a 9.

More importantly - and picking up on a point earlier in the thread - they are happy for him to take A level lit regardless of grades achieved because they've taught him for five years and know he's capable of A level, whatever GCSE grade he achieves.

BertrandRussell · 03/04/2017 09:48

Yes, noble, please don't go. We need knowledge and reason.

Danglingmod · 03/04/2017 09:58

What Bert and Allthebest said.

BertrandRussell · 03/04/2017 10:03

predictions thread

AlexanderHamilton · 03/04/2017 11:58

Up until about a year ago my Year 10 dd was fairly sure she wanted to do maths & science A levels.

She is now certain that her grades will not be good enough in those subjects and she is looking at humanities and arts subjects instead.

Age 11 she was offered a place at a selective private school but turned it down as she wanted a different kind of education at that point. She is however strongly considering the private school for 6th form. She is bright, an ed psych gave her full scale IQ as 138.

Her prediction re all over the place. Spiky CATS results and the fact she didn't do KS2 SATS mean that her computer generated predictions are very low in subjects where they take spatial CATS results into consideration but her teachers are predicting higher.

In Year 8 her maths teacher left and there was a gap before a new one was appointed, the supply teacher was not very good and she said the work was far too easy. Then the debacle of the new GCSE's. Her year group have just not been prepared for this. Too little time to teach the syllabus. (science teachers wanted to start in Year 9 but had no textbooks, new maths textbooks contained loads of errors. Its just led to a total lack of confidence in these subjects.

Her computer generated prediction in maths is Grade 6, her teacher says Level 6-8
In Science her computer generated prediction is Grade 5, her Biology & Chemistry teachers say Grade 6, Physics Grade 6/7
Her English prediction is Grade 7/8
Her RS prediction is Grade 8 but aim for higher (her teacher consulted with a uni theology lecturer)

She is horrified at Grade 5 science predictions. The private 6th form havn't yet decided what number Grade they will require as they still do ICSE A* - C. We think they will ask for Grade 7's. Her teachersd openly admit they have no idea what these Grades will look like. The RS teacher said she didn't want to predict a 9 because no one knows what a 9 will be.

Its all a total farce and dd feels like a guniea pig. She has to put 6th form application in, in just a few months.

hardboiled · 03/04/2017 12:28

Bobo that's a stupid idea
No it's not. In the country where I grew up that's how it works. I knew that if I got 90% up then I got a certain grade. If I got between 70% and 89% then I got a different grade, etc. 50% was the pass level. So not stupid, just different. It was good to know that it didn't depend on what others got. It's the examiners job to prepare exams that are more or less the right level.

noblegiraffe · 03/04/2017 13:36

So not stupid, just different

It can be different and stupid.

Apart from the fact that we know examiners can't set exams of exactly the same difficulty year after year, we also know that after an exam change, results fall because teachers are less familiar with the changes/syllabus/question style and it takes a couple of years for the marks to recover.

In the system of simply giving a percentage, the first couple of cohorts through an exam would be disadvantaged compared to future years (the sawtooth effect). A student who gets 60% in the first year through could have got 70% if they were 3 years younger, yet they'd be compared unfavourably against the 3 years younger student when going for jobs etc. With UMS and grade boundaries, these can be adjusted for a more difficult paper/first cohort through to make things fairer.

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BoboChic · 03/04/2017 14:21

noble - it'a the English system that is stupid. Grading systems need to be transparent to avoid teachers/pupils getting bogged down in the minutiae of grade boundaries.

sendsummer · 03/04/2017 16:47

Personally I would go for absolute percentage combined with placing in national cohort
e.g. top 5%, top 10%, top 25% , top 50% etc

cantkeepawayforever · 03/04/2017 17:13

Bobo, it would be very interesting to know exactly how a percentage-graded system manages to standardise its papers such that each year's 75% is exactly as hard to achieve, in every subject.

I mean, it's hard enough to make an A in each subject - which covers a range of percentages - as hard to achieve as in previous years, and that is one of the reasons why 'grade creep' has happened.

Or is it that, in fact, in percentage-based systems, it is known that
a) different absolute percentages may mean somewhat different actual abilities / results from year to year.
b) a range of percentages is regarded as 'equivalent'., so are informally or informally 'grouped'

Or alternatively, are reported percentages actually 'proxies' for real percentages of the available marks, where adjustments are made to allow for variation between difficulty of papers, and then a 'standardised percentage' awarded??

BertrandRussell · 03/04/2017 17:21

The French system is very much dog-eat-dog and devil take the hindmost. But it's like that from day one, so I suppose in general the kids are used to it.

sendsummer · 03/04/2017 18:25

The French Bac has also fallen prey to inflated grades in the last 20 years despite a percentage based system. It used to be almost unheard of getting above 16 but it seems to be quite frequent now with the very top performers getting over 19.

titchy · 03/04/2017 18:55

lol at the UK being the only country obsessed with grade boundaries! The French back is out of 20 (I believe), IB out of 45. The minutiae of those marks matter!!!

sendsummer · 03/04/2017 19:16

titchy it is not that the points or percentages don't matter but the UK system seems to have driven the time consuming effort from teachers and their students to work out what a percentage in an exam actually means in terms of grades.
Teachers like Noble are thrown by the new exam because they have relied on founding out how good their students are by using grade boundaries from past papers and now they can't do that this year for English and Maths. Students don't seem to be able to be told or believe what they are being told what level they are from class work (at least in a sizeable number of schools from PPs)

noblegiraffe · 03/04/2017 20:10

That would be because entry to colleges and sixth forms isn't done on teacher recommendation, but on grades.

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BoboChic · 03/04/2017 20:26

The minutiae of marks in the French bac don't matter because there are no conditional offers in France.

cantkeepawayforever · 03/04/2017 20:32

So nobody applies to anywhere until they have their results, and then they investigate where to apply to and apply based on their real results?

Remember that many children in the UK 'rule themselves out of applying' to institutions that they don't think are 'for them', even though in the event they get grades good enough to go to them. So for a system to be entirely 'predicted grades blind' (double blind, with predicted grades not influencing the choices of students or institutions) a student must not even have begun to rule out / in specific institutions until after actual grades are out.

Is that how education in France works?

BoboChic · 03/04/2017 20:36

No it's a totally different system. Firm offers are received on the basis of school reports.

noblegiraffe · 03/04/2017 20:40

School reports? So entry to other institutions can be screwed by teacher bias?

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cantkeepawayforever · 03/04/2017 20:44

So if you have a very bright student who happens to attend a school which isn't experienced in sending reports to top institutions, then you have less chance than a similarly able child from a school with more practice at it?

Yes, that sounds a lot fairer....

cantkeepawayforever · 03/04/2017 20:46

Not to mention the competence / fairness of particular teachers...or if a teacher leaves mid-year.

Hmm. I think I might suggest that predicted and actual grades might be better....

noblegiraffe · 03/04/2017 20:52

thewingtoheaven.wordpress.com/2015/11/01/why-is-teacher-assessment-biased/

Disadvantaged kids and minorities do better on tests than they do in teacher assessment.

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sendsummer · 03/04/2017 20:56

That would be because entry to colleges and sixth forms isn't done on teacher recommendation, but on grades.
Yes, ultimately by the grades they get, which teachers are not going to influence except by teaching the best they can.

However whatever the students end up by achieving, a teacher should be able to know their pupils' capabilities so as to predict grades in the right ballpark (pass, good pass or near the top of cohort) instead of purely relying on the grade boundaries of a mock and having major angst about said grade boundaries being uncertain.

TeenAndTween · 03/04/2017 21:03

Another person popping on to say I very much value noble's input on threads. They are helping me stay well informed in the gap between my y13 and y7 DCs doing GCSEs.

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