What restrictions will Nicola announce on Tuesday?

[ShiftingSands21]

Does anyone have a strong sense of what we should expect tomorrow?

Nothing about travel, @Tobogganist. Go, and have a lovely time!

Does anybody have a sense of what is likely to happen with theatres and concert venues? I've booked lots of theatre shows over Christmas, starting this week! They're full houses so we'll be packed in like sardines.

It's just the impending tsunami...it seems to be escalating very quickly. The thought of sitting in a panto, in a cosy pub, out for meals, family all huddled round for 72hrs... it's just not good. Better to do an Easter Hols family thing instead I think. Back to virtual family quiz.

Yes I think I won't go but I'll lose £££ Oh well, definitely not worth the risk

@Tobogganist

She didn't say anything about travel did she? Out with you health board area. I'm going to family down in the south of England on the 23rd.... starting to think it's better to cancel now...

Nothing about travel and message was very much no restricted Christmas day.

I think it depends on what you're comfortable with. We certainly won't be cancelling our trip to family in England will do a test before we go. It's learning to live what risks are acceptable to you as a individual and your family. Covid isn't disappearing.

Ahh it's a pain in the arse. Absolutely it's all to do with what you are comfortable with. Could still go but cancel the panto and meals but then we'd be couped up all week. Also involves 3 airports, 4 flights. If it was just a car journey it would be risk. Personally I've just recently had covid so will have natural immunity to an uncertain extent but it comes down to wanting to protect my relatives.

Are you're relatives vulnerable @Tobogganist ?

I'd probably give it a few days yet before you make a decision. Should know in next few days if cases are going to shoot up the way they're saying they will

Oh definitely!
We are lft before going but yes that is tricky when you have just had it (I tested positive on lft for a long time after). FFP2 masks are also a lot better at protection for flights but it's what you're comfortable with.
If you think you will have a better time later in the year then do that.

Personally we cancelled last year then lost my FIL and DH grandad this year. FIL barely got to see his GC before suddenly dying so we won't cancel missing seeing family again for greater good! If we test and positive then that's completely different and we will stay.

Its not untrue. Scotland was kept in full lockdown (in both the Spring 2020 lockdown and the Winter 2021 lockdown) for at least 2 weeks longer than England. The 'rules' here have been consistently (and significantly) further reaching. England dropped all restrictions in July 2021 whilst Sturgeon retained swathes of them (WFH, masks, restrictions in schools); retaining those restrictions, for all those consequent months, made no impact when compared.

She used the powers to enforce local lockdowns in the same way as regions in England did. Restrictions were eased in England on 4th July 2020, except in some local areas. Scotland mirrored those restrictions on 9th of July. England re-introduced hospitality restrictions on 22nd September, Scotland did so on the 25th. England went in to full lockdown again on the 5th November. Scotland was still dealing with it on a local basis at this point with 13 of 32 areas still on a lower level of restriction which allowed hospitality to remain open. They moved 3 more to level 3 on the 10th November, moved one back to level 2 (not fully lockdown) on the 23rd, then moved 3 others back to L3 on 15th December. Mainland Scotland did not move to L4, which mirrored England’s lockdown, until Boxing Day, with the remainder of the country moving to lockdown on the 5th of January. From there she used local restrictions in the same way as England did.

Sure, more restrictions which are not furlough related remained, but before you pooh pooh masks, restrictions in schools etc you might want to consider that covid has not spread unabated in schools in anything like the way it has in England. And it is irrelevant to your point that she has maximised furlough in some nefarious way.

Her early response to omicron was, again, to reach for the lockdown lever. Both Sturgeon and Drakeford started asking for the financial support (required for furlough) at the very outset (over 2 weeks ago). She's made very clear today that she'd've imposed harsher restrictions had she been handed the financial capacity.

She has not even come close to “reaching for the lockdown lever” More restrictions doesn’t necessarily mean furlough needs to be used. I assume she is talking about things like asking companies to consider whether Christmas parties are a good idea, and the impact this has on hospitality. Given a department at my husband’s work had a party and now a whole bunch of people are having to isolate, because someone who had tested positive attended the party, and there are (so far) 5 cases from that, and this is an organisation which has to have really strict rules about this stuff, postponing isn’t a bad idea. Some support for the places which are now facing cancellations would be good, although we cancelled ours and lost a deposit so they aren’t entirely out of pocket. Plus we’ll do something in the new year at some point.

Anyway, the point is, to suggest she has taken the piss with furlough is laughable. And it pisses me off that you making such inaccurate claims has led me to defend her as that goes against my usual stance.

@BoredZelda covid is rife in schools here. It’s ludicrous to suggest that masks have helped.

My brother just send a message to the family app showing he is LFT positive. In my mind that's it. Others in the family are saying " it's ok hell be clear by the 23rd"...in answer to question no my family members are not shielding but they are over 70 and some of us work very closely with people who are vulnerable.

@boredzelda It's worth looking at travelling tabby and comparing Scotland versus England (separate tabs) for total case rate whole of pandemic for children per 100,000 its a real eye opener.

England total approx 35,500 per 100,000 for 0-19
Scotland total approx is 40,500 per 100,000 for 0-19 year olds.
So actually saying that school controls have made a difference is incorrect the rate of infection in Scotland is higher and that's with masks in schools.

covid is rife in schools here. It’s ludicrous to suggest that masks have helped.

It really isn't. Not in the way it is across England.

There has been an increase in the numbers of cases reported in the younger age groups, but this is largely because A) school children are being regularly LF tested way more than any other age group and B)there are better levels of immunity in older age groups. This does not mean there are large outbreaks in schools across the country. These are community cases which are found and are not translating to contact cases in schools. Schools in England have had to close, or move entire groups back to online, and many have reintroduced restrictions to match what we are doing in Scotland.

Can you point me to reports of any schools which have been closed in Scotland recently because of an outbreak within the school (not those who were closed because of isolating staff)? I can find one from this week. This has not been a major issue in schools.

England total approx 35,500 per 100,000 for 0-19
Scotland total approx is 40,500 per 100,000 for 0-19 year olds.
So actually saying that school controls have made a difference is incorrect the rate of infection in Scotland is higher and that's with masks in schools.

The infection rate for that age group is higher. The infection rate in schools is not higher. Kids are not catching covid in schools. And schools are the one place where they have little choice but to wear a mask.

My daughter masks every day at school and so do her friends. The school are insistent on it. If any of them catch covid, it will be from the Guides christmas party they have just had where she was the only one wearing her mask and the leaders were doing nothing to enforce their own guidance that they should be worn.

@boredzelda your kidding yourself if you don't think children are catching covid in schools!

So masks do not stop smaller particles escaping which contain the virus only larger droplets, since alpha variant smaller virus size is required hence why it's more transmissible. It builds up in the air if poorly ventilated. Schools are notorious for poor ventilation despite the windows being open. Friends who are teachers are seeing CO2 monitors flash red where schools have had them installed. This is with masks.
If you sit in the space for approx an hour you are at risk of catching the virus even wearing a mask I'm afraid especially if a cloth as they aren't face fit there are gaps etc.

In addition children wear the same mask all day (often repeatedly days). As soon as that mask has moisture it increases the risk. Masks worn properly also means changing them regularly throughout the day.
There is a useful article which was in the bmj on all restrictions including examination of mask effectiveness.
They are not a magical bullet I'm afraid especially with new variants which need a smaller viral load.

All primary schools but I know of two closed and one where an entire class was sent home, all reported in the press and that’s just in the last week in the two local authority areas I know (live and work) and without me actively looking for anything.

All freely reported in the press.

Omicron is in schools in the Highlands.
Several schools closed in the Autumn months due to high case levels so the masks didn’t really stop any of it spreading. Presumably that was Delta, so Omicron will probably go through in the same way.

your kidding yourself if you don't think children are catching covid in schools!

Where are all the reports? There have been localised issues with staffing due to isolations, and individuals with cases, but show me where there have been mass outbreaks in schools across the nation?

There are nearly 800 thousand pupils in Scotland, and back at the top of the peak in August there were 14,000 pupils absent due to covid. Only about 3000 of them actually had it and the rest were isolating as close contacts. That’s a really small number comparatively.

Kids are catching it, but anyone who thinks there is a major problem in schools compared to England, hasn’t been paying attention to what is going on down there.

@BoredZelda

Its not untrue. Scotland was kept in full lockdown (in both the Spring 2020 lockdown and the Winter 2021 lockdown) for at least 2 weeks longer than England. The 'rules' here have been consistently (and significantly) further reaching. England dropped all restrictions in July 2021 whilst Sturgeon retained swathes of them (WFH, masks, restrictions in schools); retaining those restrictions, for all those consequent months, made no impact when compared.

She used the powers to enforce local lockdowns in the same way as regions in England did. Restrictions were eased in England on 4th July 2020, except in some local areas. Scotland mirrored those restrictions on 9th of July. England re-introduced hospitality restrictions on 22nd September, Scotland did so on the 25th. England went in to full lockdown again on the 5th November. Scotland was still dealing with it on a local basis at this point with 13 of 32 areas still on a lower level of restriction which allowed hospitality to remain open. They moved 3 more to level 3 on the 10th November, moved one back to level 2 (not fully lockdown) on the 23rd, then moved 3 others back to L3 on 15th December. Mainland Scotland did not move to L4, which mirrored England’s lockdown, until Boxing Day, with the remainder of the country moving to lockdown on the 5th of January. From there she used local restrictions in the same way as England did.

Sure, more restrictions which are not furlough related remained, but before you pooh pooh masks, restrictions in schools etc you might want to consider that covid has not spread unabated in schools in anything like the way it has in England. And it is irrelevant to your point that she has maximised furlough in some nefarious way.

Her early response to omicron was, again, to reach for the lockdown lever. Both Sturgeon and Drakeford started asking for the financial support (required for furlough) at the very outset (over 2 weeks ago). She's made very clear today that she'd've imposed harsher restrictions had she been handed the financial capacity.

She has not even come close to “reaching for the lockdown lever” More restrictions doesn’t necessarily mean furlough needs to be used. I assume she is talking about things like asking companies to consider whether Christmas parties are a good idea, and the impact this has on hospitality. Given a department at my husband’s work had a party and now a whole bunch of people are having to isolate, because someone who had tested positive attended the party, and there are (so far) 5 cases from that, and this is an organisation which has to have really strict rules about this stuff, postponing isn’t a bad idea. Some support for the places which are now facing cancellations would be good, although we cancelled ours and lost a deposit so they aren’t entirely out of pocket. Plus we’ll do something in the new year at some point.

Anyway, the point is, to suggest she has taken the piss with furlough is laughable. And it pisses me off that you making such inaccurate claims has led me to defend her as that goes against my usual stance.

Gosh, you ARE bored 🤣

You have your opinion, i'll stick with mine 🙂

Several schools closed in the Autumn months due to high case levels so the masks didn’t really stop any of it spreading. Presumably that was Delta, so Omicron will probably go through in the same way.

There were 800 pupils affected by that “outbreak”. Across the whole of the highlands with nearly 31,000 pupils. And the schools were closed for myriad reasons, not because all those children had covid. Staff and pupils were isolating as contacts from cases outwith the schools.

Look, it is difficult to say with any certainty what the actual numbers are because ScotGov refuse to release the figures, but it is abundantly clear to anyone paying attention that covid is not spreading in schools in any meaningful way. My local authority is about the average size of any in Scotland. We had one school closed for a week back in June because of a rise in case numbers from within the school, and it is a school that is pretty much considered to be the toughest in the area in terms of trying to get the kids to do anything in terms of following rules.

It is far too simplistic to say masks don’t work because x number is equal to y number. It ignores basic rules of statistical analysis. But if someone wants to prove me wrong with actual numbers, I’ll happily take a look.

Gosh, you ARE bored 🤣

Actually, I was procrastinating away from some incredibly boring work stuff, just the break I needed. 😆

You have your opinion, i'll stick with mine 🙂

You have opinion, what I have are facts. 👍

The only reason I challenge the assertion she did way more than England is because that’s the message she wants her cult to hear. She made some very timely announcements, got in there with them early, but when you look at what she actually did it was very similar to England, hence our numbers being just as bad. And it leads to commentary about how X doesn’t work because Scotlands numbers are bad.

I wish she had done what you accuse her of because we’d be in a much better position to be dealing with Omicron now. But instead she stood on her podium day after day and promised us she’s love to do more but baaaad Westminster won’t give me the money (and what they do give me I’ve squirrelled away in my Indy fund nobody knows where I’ve hidden)

All primary schools but I know of two closed and one where an entire class was sent home

The primary schools where masks are not worn, you mean?

Well if it’s spreading in schools in England and not in schools here, but we and they have similar prevalence rates in school-age kids, then presumably England is having more success than us at stopping spread in non-school settings? Or, we have lower rates in school-age but way higher in the 18 and 19 year olds grouped into that age category somehow? Or, in England they’re getting exposed in school first and here they’re getting exposed in the community first, but we end up with the same number of kids having getting infected at the same rate anyway?

Take it you’ve been to SNP college @BoredZelda

@BoredZelda You have opinion, what I have are facts👍

www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/covid-lockdown-scotland-been-tougher-23917423