Dancing with tiers in my eyes, Weeping for the memory of a life gone by

[dancemom]

New thread, a very appropriate title I feel ...

We do have the lowest in the UK though, which is where you want to be going into the the winter months.

I honestly thought we would have some normality this winter . But all I’m hearing is people having operations canceled .

Thanks @dancemom
How are you and DD feeling now?

@BlameItOnTheBlackStar It's going to go up and down in natural fluctuations there's no getting rid of it tbh!
😂 We are up at 320/100,000 if this was a year ago we would all have been in level 4 lockdown! I don't think Scotland can claim much tbh given the levels we reached with control measures.

I'm glad the Scottish government has given up on that strategy though.
Wonder when they will finally accept they can't control a virus and building walls out of sand lasts til it rains!

@Scottishskifun well I think that they can claim they currently have the lowest numbers in the U.K. but for some reason that really seems to bother you 🤷🏻‍♀️

I agree. It's disappointing to see the numbers going up. The hassle of it all feels never ending.

Thanks dancemom! And, Yy, hope you and your family are recovering!

I don't really think the numbers are going up particularly blackstar - though I agree they are flat rather than declining. I don't think that's really a problem though, and would be what we'd hope for with a "living with" approach? As long as the r number stays around 1, we'd expect the level in the population to stay the same, roughly. If it declined or settled at a lower level, that would be great, but it would be just as useful for other illnesses causing hospitalisation to decline instead, which seems unlikely coming into November! Where it does become a problem is if that stable, ongoing number of cases, on top of everything else, overwhelms the NHS. If operations are being cancelled that sounds like it may be the case, (even if covid is staying the same, other winter illnesses are increasing) or there may just be a bit of (over?) cautious preparation, expecting both covid and non covid numbers to increase in the next month or so, which they may well do.

But by itself, it seems flat covid numbers at this stage is a pretty good situation, as starry says. Though I agree, declining numbers (which looks like it's about to happen across the rest of the UK now), or smaller flat numbers would be even better

Hope all is well with you @dancemom 👋

I meant hospital numbers going up, not case numbers in general.

Pressed send too soon!

There's about 50 more people in hospital now than there were last week; I know it's not much and it's relatively flat, but I think we all agree it would be better if it was decreasing as it was 2-3 weeks ago. It just feels a bit dangerous right at the start of winter.

Yeah, but bugger all to be done about it now 🤷🏻‍♀️ Just got to crack on. We are effectively in Plan B here. Not helping. And more restrictions are surely unthinkable?

[quote forfucksakenett]@Scottishskifun well I think that they can claim they currently have the lowest numbers in the U.K. but for some reason that really seems to bother you 🤷🏻‍♀️

I agree. It's disappointing to see the numbers going up. The hassle of it all feels never ending. [/quote]
😂 It doesn't bother me just pointing out that being the lowest in the UK currently is still pretty massively high, more like currently the least worst for the last 3 weeks.

Let's all give ourselves a round of applause for that one we have consistency been the best..... Oh wait what was Sept figures again.........

@BlameItOnTheBlackStar

Pressed send too soon!

There's about 50 more people in hospital now than there were last week; I know it's not much and it's relatively flat, but I think we all agree it would be better if it was decreasing as it was 2-3 weeks ago. It just feels a bit dangerous right at the start of winter.

It corresponds with September figures, hospital numbers generally have a lag of 3-4 weeks so it's likely to go up next week or two. It's based on the point that people tend to get the most ill it's either pretty quick within a few days or at about the 10 day mark if pneumonia has set in.

Sorry should be end of September/earlier in Oct numbers.

@BlameItOnTheBlackStar

Pressed send too soon!

There's about 50 more people in hospital now than there were last week; I know it's not much and it's relatively flat, but I think we all agree it would be better if it was decreasing as it was 2-3 weeks ago. It just feels a bit dangerous right at the start of winter.

Ah, OK, I see what you mean re hospital figures. I still think that's just reflecting the pattern of cases though. Case numbers fell from the Sept peak to slightly lower than now at the beginning of October, which you'd expect would have resulted in slightly lower hospitalisations than now a week or so later. Cases then increased slightly, so the 7 day daily average is now 100 or so more per day than at the start of Oct. So hospitalisations would also be expected to increase a tiny bit from the middle of oct. I don't think there's any expectation that at the current case level there will be a sudden shoot up in the % hospitalisations, just because its winter. Fingers crossed...

I do wonder what impact, if any, all the travelling around in half term will have. Most people haven't gone far in my own circle but we all went somewhere in the U.K.

Bugger, yes, I've just repeated what scottishskifun said! That's what comes of trying to stop my white sauce buggering up while typing...

@Mistressiggi I noticed, weirdly, that people I know who’ve been really worried about Covid have been jetting off abroad! I do think the figures just rise and fall regardless though.

Though everyone I know who’s got it has done so here 🤷🏻‍♀️

[quote WouldBeGood]@Mistressiggi I noticed, weirdly, that people I know who’ve been really worried about Covid have been jetting off abroad! I do think the figures just rise and fall regardless though.[/quote]
I think we've all listened for too long that going abroad is going to cause the third apocalypse that people truly believe it now.

My experience in the sunshine on holiday was actually we spent the majority of time outside including eating so actually way lower risk than a week at home where its cold and you end up doing indoor activities instead!

I always generally think that other countries are safer than ours. I have zero idea if that's true btw.

I have no idea either 🤣 I’m so tired

A lot of Europe certainly has more of a outdoor culture even in Winter which definitely is safer from a covid perspective. I don't bat a eyelid to swimming outdoors in a pool in the snow in France!

From a cultural aspect I think the UK has become a lot like the US, too much time spent indoors and not active enough, its probably why we have crap numbers like the US does!

Agree we spend far too much time indoors here. Some of my kids don't go out at all after school and one hadn't been taken out in the October holidays.. anywhere!
Watched YouTube, Netflix etc. It's really sad.

Oh and Boris the other day. He was just so disappointing. Saying ridiculous things and making unfunny jokes throughout. The woman with him said, "We must take this seriously. " Ugh.

Thank you everyone. Feeling much better this week, breathlessness and aches seem to have passed for the most part. Still very fatigued but trying to take it easy and build myself back up slowly.