Scunnered .... *insert tier pun

[dancemom]

New thread, couldn't think of a title 🙈

@SempreSuiGeneris

Good summary Reslience. This is the paper underpinning the comments. Prof Francois Balloux did a very good twitter thread on it today.

www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1879625721000730?v=s5

Yep measles is completely different kettle of fish.

Thanks for the paper hadn't seen that one 😊 Let's hope NS or her team read it as well....... 🙄

@SempreSuiGeneris

Good summary Reslience. This is the paper underpinning the comments. Prof Francois Balloux did a very good twitter thread on it today.

www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1879625721000730?v=s5

Yep measles is completely different kettle of fish.

Thanks for that link! Didn't realise it was cutting edge stuff Also, it proves the other Greek letters haven't been forgotten about. I was feeling a bit sad for gamma, and epsilon through to kappa, before lambda takes over again...

• 1,307 new cases of COVID-19 reported
• 23,857 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results
◦ 6.1% of these were positive
• 11 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive
• 60 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 478 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 3,994,883 people have received the first dose of the Covid vaccination and 3,064,441 have received their second dose

The ITV guy Peston is saying on Twitter that the daily figures are only for those getting Covid for the first time.

So if you get Covid twice or three times, they are not counted.

Meaning Covid could be spreading much more and the actual numbers are higher and we aren't seeing a decline.

As he said, your child at school could get it once, and pass it onto an adult who gets it for the second time.

@YeDancer well, he’s now being fairly discredited for scaremongering as reinfections are recorded, but are less than one per cent of total infections, 0.53.

Cases are dropping fast in England just now too. So all looking pretty good.

I was just coming on to say that about the reinfection figures @WouldBeGood. Peston does seem to be scaremongering a bit there - the sub 1% that are reinfections are hardly going to make an impact on the 40% or whatever drop in cases. Plus, if case numbers are being underestimated that means the link to hospitalizations is actually even weaker than thought, which is good news and hardly 'deeply concerning'. There might be a case for tweaking the way figures are presented in due course, but it's hardly a disaster flying under the radar.

Yes - I think there was some kerfuffle about this a while ago, and from memory, the reason was the headline figure refers to "people having tested positive" rather than "cases" - and a person is a person, regardless how many times they have tested positive! The UK dashboard clearly says "People tested positive more than once are only counted once, on the date of their first positive test." So not sure why he is treating this as some big secret conspiracy

And as wouldbegood says, the numbers are tiny, even allowing for the fact that people last March may possibly have been positive but not tested. I think deaths are recorded on the dashboard as "28 days from first positive test" too. So anyone reinfected who then dies may not be picked up in that headline figure - though those numbers will be even smaller, and the ONS data on death certificates would include anyone in that situation. Hospitalisations would be the most recent test though, I understand.

"Hi @Peston, some info:

1️⃣ Work is actively ongoing to integrate episode length into case definition
2️⃣ Currently, reinfections are ~1% of cases
3️⃣ Reinfection data published weekly by @PHE_uk {https://t.co/2BxKcw5fdG} ➡️ 23,000 reinfections out of 5,669,000 cases over pandemic"

From a PHE epidemiologist on Twitter. Seems there is a plan to integrate this data in future, but for now effect still very small compared to overall number of infections.

Yep it's also to avoid double counting e.g someone has a test at home then someone has a test in hospital.

You can also test positive for a long time after infection. If I use a lateral flow test it always comes up with a positive still. I haven't caught covid again as I recently had to do a PCR test.
But I don't think some people realise how long you can still test positive for its at least 90 days for some people it's more.

• 1,237 new cases of COVID-19 reported
• 18,180 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results
◦ 7.5% of these were positive
• 0 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive (noting that Register Offices are now generally closed at weekends)

• 64 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 480 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 3,997,105 people have received the first dose of the Covid vaccination and 3,079,492 have received their second dose

Did anyone catch which government minister/spokesperson was on the Today programme about 8.15? She was being questioned on students needing to be 2x vacc'd before they could access university lectures.

She seemed to row back on her earlier statement when she'd said, no, the govt weren't considering it.

Had a quick look on the coronavirus threads but couldn't see any discussion on this yet.

I saw that and as someone who works in HE, I think the staff would be happy about that, the students maybe less so.

But they would need to extend vacs to 16/17 yos

also saw on another thread that some USA universities are refusing admission unless double vaccinated.

Would be difficult to do here as applications are done via UCAS

• 1,000 new cases of COVID-19 reported
• 13,635 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results
◦ 8.0% of these were positive
• 0 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive (noting that Register Offices are now generally closed at the weekend)

• 65 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 475 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 3,998,627 people have received the first dose of the Covid vaccination and 3,092,102 have received their second dose

Freedom awaits!

Is it a week tomorrow she tells us whether we will be almost fully released on the 9th?

It is indeed @hilbil21 and Humza is optimistic!

Good stuff! Although with him he's normally wrong

That is indeed a worry 😂

What will be different after aug 9th?

I've lost track

@ssd

What will be different after aug 9th?

I've lost track

Who knows! I would say outdoor restrictions on numbers stopped but that was supposed to be on the 19th July and cancelled. Return to offices...... But again was cancelled.

It's supposed to be end of majority of legal restrictions however I think it's whatever the SG fancy as they have often changed what they say a few weeks before and what they do!

I'm glad i don't bother anymore. I do what feels safe for me and my family. Its all about personal responsibility now. As soon as nightclubs reopen my dcs will be there like a shot, whereas i don't even want to go in a pub.

But i never bothered with pubs much before so not going is no great loss.

I'm hoping they will end the number of people outside as that's just ridiculous and restricts events. Also the no dancing at weddings rule other than the couple is fecking ridiculous!

@ssd

What will be different after aug 9th?

I've lost track

It's supposed to be the equivalent of England's "freedom day" she's already said we will still have masks, but there's not been much else mentioned.