Scunnered .... *insert tier pun

[dancemom]

New thread, couldn't think of a title 🙈

Ah good explanation thank you @Y0uCann0tBeSer10us . So effectively infections could remain high numbers wise but hopefully not for hospitalisations and deaths.

I agree @ResilienceWanker, I think as time goes on and we're all exposed every winter like we are to cold/flu viruses (yes, I know, I know) to top up immunity, possibly with boosters for the vulnerable, it'll fade into the background of other normal winter viruses. I bet if flu burst onto the scene now with an immunologically naive population, we'd probably see the same kind of carnage we saw with COVID.

The short term is the tricky part, before we get there. But if prior immunity, even from doubly vaccinated people, doesn't stop spread, I start to wonder if anything will. If that's the case, you may as well minimise the other harms that the mitigation measures are actually causing. It also then makes sense to actually try and build up that immunity in people over the summer when we're all a bit more resistant to viruses anyway. I'm not sure there is a happy solution where everyone stays safe though, and perhaps it was unkind to pretend there was.

@Y0uCann0tBeSer10us

I agree *@ResilienceWanker*, I think as time goes on and we're all exposed every winter like we are to cold/flu viruses (yes, I know, I know) to top up immunity, possibly with boosters for the vulnerable, it'll fade into the background of other normal winter viruses. I bet if flu burst onto the scene now with an immunologically naive population, we'd probably see the same kind of carnage we saw with COVID.

The short term is the tricky part, before we get there. But if prior immunity, even from doubly vaccinated people, doesn't stop spread, I start to wonder if anything will. If that's the case, you may as well minimise the other harms that the mitigation measures are actually causing. It also then makes sense to actually try and build up that immunity in people over the summer when we're all a bit more resistant to viruses anyway. I'm not sure there is a happy solution where everyone stays safe though, and perhaps it was unkind to pretend there was.

Yes, on the flu thing, there is some suggestion that in 1918 remote communities were much more affected than urban communities because of the prior immunity. And while I'm not sure we should all go out looking for infection and licking bus stops again, it could well be best to try to build up exposure while antibodies are high from vaccination etc. It doesn't make it any easier for CEV people, vulnerable children or those who can't be vaccinated, though, and I don't know how we address that. It is harsh just to say "get on with it, everyone, and try not to catch it if you're vulnerable" (though that is effectively what we say to many people every year with flu/ norovirus etc) - especially as we have gone to such efforts over the past 2 years to protect everyone else. But ultimately, I don't know what else we can do?

@IncludeWomenInThePrequel

Reading that makes me feel a bit sick *@StarryEyeSurprise*

I was talking to my friend recently who I hadn't seen for a while. She worked on a Covid ward in the second wave and her and her husband and eldest child are all now struggling with Long Covid.

She was telling me how it had been on the ward, and just kept saying "We HAD to let people die, there weren't enough ventilators, we had no choice."

I don't think that'll ever leave her. That's the position healthcare professionals were put in, and we're wilfully doing the same for a THIRD time.

Oh, that's sad, your poor friend and their family.

Yes, agree re opening nightclubs down south. How many will get long covid as a result of the removal of all restrictions there? I think Ferguson predicts 50,000. The world looks on in disbelief .

Thousands of catch up operations needing to be cancelled due to covid patients increasing again. Yet, the doctors writing about this are called ' covid mentalists' (@WouldBeGood) and the scientists reporting this in the Lancet 'extremists' (@Y0uCann0tBeSer10us).

I've had enough today, can you tell?

I feel ya dude

Thousands of catch up operations are cancelled due to staff shortages due to isolation rules not because of the number of covid patients in hospitals. Our local hospital is one of them.

It's hard to tell how many people will get covid especially as modelling can only show so much but comes with many caviats. So far this year the modelling has been incorrect on death rates and hospital rates after each lockdown easing (which can only be a good thing).

It's also still pretty unknown given the high asystomatic case rate of 1/3 how many people will be effectively double jabbed which just a single dose due to residual covid antibodies and they never knew they had the virus. The good news is that asystomatic people don't spread the virus as easily.

The fact that under 40s also recieve Pfizer or moderna also has a good chance of keeping cases a lot lower as its holding up a lot better in double vaccinated people catching covid in the first place (9/10 protection compared to 6/10 for AZ against delta).

This virus is never going anywhere though so it's best to really invest in treating people with long covid which isn't happening here or in Wales and NI have to wait til Oct for. Hospitals are now pretty good at treating covid patients especially with the massive expansion of cpap use alongside drug therapies.

@scottishskifun They're referring to English hospitals not Aberdeenshire.

[quote StarryEyeSurprise]@scottishskifun They're referring to English hospitals not Aberdeenshire.[/quote]
Where did I say only Aberdeenshire? Just that our local hospital has the same issue. They have only just changed the rules for key workers isolation in England but many are still completing isolation.

Speaking to friends in England who work in hospitals (including ICU) they are short staffed not over run.
Good news from ICU friends they haven't had any double jabbed people in who need ventilation and very very low double dosed people.

I thought you said before that you're in Aberdeenshire? Or Aberdeen? That's all.

I keep hearing that NHS is struggling due to the amount of staff having to self isolate. Certainly not the case in my health board, they're all off with stress/anxiety. It's been absolutely manic and isn't getting better. Most staff here don't have the app as we were told to switch it off when working as it would be pinging constantly. Certainly stress is the major factor where I am.

I'm thinking given the lowish rates of vaccine uptake amongst the under 30s, whatever politicians want they'll face an uphill battle with under 18s. Especially as you can still get and transmit covid with the vaccine.

I can imagine @Ladylunchalot and how can staff recover when they see a third wave in progress and our leaders not just letting it happen, but hastening it

A good friend in NHS Grampian says the same @Ladylunchalot. Staff are either exhausted, off with stress, long Covid or are finally using holidays that they’ve felt unable to take previously. Dr Grays in Elgin was at the stage of only being able to stabilise patients and transfer to ARI.

ICU staff just exhausted and demoralised as they aren’t seeing patients getting better anymore. It’s very hard to imagine working in those conditions.

I wouldn't wish it on anyone. It's always the same - those making the decisions don't need to suffer the consequences. The PM (currently relaxing at Chequers) wouldn't last one day as an ICU nurse or doctor. They have a hard enough job as it is.

It's been crazy, more than half of our staff off long term and struggling to get bank shifts filled (can't blame them!).

People seem to forget about the mental and physical health impact of those on the front line. In other countries, there's more of a collective understanding that one should act in a way that helps or protects others. That's been lost a bit in the UK where there's more of a focus on 'I'll do what I want.' Just a reflection of our society.

That's a bit of a blanket statement @StarryEyeSurprise , it would be good to demonstrate some of the evidence that this is the case in these other countries.

People in the UK have largely complied with restrictions that have been in place in some form or another for 16 months now.

We need to try to do something to lessen the impact of this over winter when hospitals are already traditionally overrun by flu etc . It is unfortunate that it impacts on a much needed bit of breathing space for health professionals but better running at fuller capacity now than overrun in Winter.

• 1,686 new cases of COVID-19 reported
• 31,462 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results
◦ 6.0% of these were positive
• 7 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive
• 51 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 529 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 3,987,074 people have received the first dose of the Covid vaccination and 3,010,505 have received their second dose

Hurrah for platitude free @dancemom !
Down again- fingers crossed.

Hospitals are not full of Covid patients, no matter how you count them.

But the stupid isolation rules mean staff forced to be off.

@StarryEyeSurprise

I thought you said before that you're in Aberdeenshire? Or Aberdeen? That's all.

I am Aberdeenshire, it was your assumption that I was only referring to my local hospital from a post which simply isn't true I was referring to the situation as a whole and trust my friends in England who say about staff shortages many for isolation but yes there are also many who are burnt out.

Friends who work in the NHS stick with mask wearing in England, they are worried about cases rising and it going mental again. But on the flip side they also say being out of lockdown allows more opportunities to destress, to meet with family and friends and easily take part in their sports all of which they find helps with their well being after the last 18 months.

OK, quick question for those who understand these things. In Scotland, cases went up throughout June, and then started falling early July. "Ah, simples" we say. "Schools closed late June, and delta was spreading in schools, so close the schools, cases started falling..." (ok- testing also decreased, but not as much as cases over the same period... about a 25% drop off in testing from early July to now, compared to a 40% decrease in cases).

But in Northern Ireland, schools closed a week later than Scotland, yet a week after that, their cases started rising. What's going on there?! Was it just Delta took a while to get a hold there? I know NI had higher numbers that Scotland proportionally in the earlier waves, so they may have higher antibodies etc- but that doesn't seem to explain the totally different pattern in case numbers with what is perceived to be the main source of spread (young people in schools)? Or are schools a red herring, and it's something else that caused Scotlands earlier peak/ decline? football again?

Schools in Scotland were a contributor but the football was also a big one it's pretty difficult to separate properly between the two without the data as people also had football parties to watch games and thus younger children also affected.

Delta was also here a lot sooner than in NI and started in Glasgow so biggest city easy to spread out.
We have basically done a reverse of the second wave with the Kent variant which took hold around London then spread upwards hitting Scotland a few weeks later. This time delta took hold in Scotland and now other areas catching up a few weeks later.

This is a hypothesis BTW without the data as I say impossible to get the full picture.

Yes, I realise everything is a bit interlinked and tricky to separate out!

I was just surprised that delta was here first, but then took so long to get to the rest of the UK. But I suppose you're right, in that the alpha variant was identified in september(?) but didn't really get going up here til December - so quite a few "generations" of the virus. Which does make sense, as you won't get exponential growth immediately (kinda the point!) and NS was calling delta the April variant for a bit, so I assume that's when it was identified. So it was busy around Glasgow in may, and then spread to the east (Edinburgh, the lothians and Dundee) in June, and now presumably more into England and NI.

I thought delta had come from the nasty reckless Boris letting people in from India willy nilly (whereas if they'd come directly to Scotland they'd have had to quarantine in a hotel) - so I'd have thought it would have been spreading around London as much as in Glasgow if that's where it entered the uk. Though it seems not! Weird.

Think it was first identified in Bolton and another English Town (sorry brain fog) but also Glasgow. As the English towns were smaller it took a bit longer to spread out. As Glasgow is a lot bigger plus tenement style living it spread more readily.