Tiering up the Covid elimination strategy

[dancemom]

Sadly the end was not as close as we thought so new thread required ....

The Tier Zone

"Tier 'n' share" ?

The bitter sting of tiers

Hello again...I lurk but seldom post

There's due to be a review and announcement tomorrow, isn't there? And didn't NS say they would address some of the "perceived" anomalies? I was wondering if this could include declaring that softplays can open in Level 2. It would maybe quieten down the court action and stop the current farcical situation where you can go to one in the Level 1 local authority next door, even though they now have case numbers that are higher than some of the Level 2 areas were when the decision was made. Do we think that's what she may have been getting at, or will it be about football (again)?

Fingers crossed ...it could make the summer holidays a bit more fun...

Maybe they're going to open a soft play in the Fan Zone?🤷🏼‍♀️

Oh maybe! Everybody wins

(Not) dancing with tiers in my eyes (yes sir, can we please boogie?!?!?!)

I like it @titsintiers

• 1,250* new cases of COVID-19 reported
• 18,580 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results
◦ 7.2% of these were positive
• 0 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive (noting that Register Offices are now generally closed at weekends)
• 14** people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 158** people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 3,647,437 people have received the first dose of the Covid vaccination and 2,586,970 have received their second dose

• PHS are aware of a data flow issue in NHS Grampian between 18 and 21 June 2021, resulting in a lower number of cases reported than otherwise expected. The issue has been resolved and these cases and tests are expected to be included in tomorrow’s figures. **NHS Lothian experienced server problems at the weekend, so have not been able to report data in time for publication. Figures reported on Saturday have been carried forward. This issue has been resolved and updated figures will be included tomorrow.

272,798 vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 142,223 1st doses / 78,594 2nd doses
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 16,848 / 15,333
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 1,619 / 8,460
NI 3,060 / 6,661

As we're now at what was supposed to be 'freedom day' in England I'm just musing that the projected cases used, in part, to justify delaying lockdown had us at 15k/day by now. Today's UK cases were 10,633 and the infection rate has slowed quite considerably. I'm not a mathematician but I did think at the time, looking at their graph of exponential upwards growth, that that could only possibly hold true if there were a plentiful supply of susceptible people left to infect. This seemed fairly far fetched given the estimated 75% or something with immunity at the time. Even a non-specialist like me knows that as people become immune the 'susceptible' pool reduces and the virus finds it harder to spread, so why is it that the government modellers never seem to build immunity into their models?

*delaying release from lockdown.

England had half term which will have slightly slower things. 2167 for Scotland today with 9.1% positive looks like exponential growth to me.

Scotland has the highest rates in the UK though (in Europe too I think) so is kind of a special case. We also have the lowest immunity by quite a margin looking at the ONS survey data (the two facts may be related). Perhaps the UK figure will jump similarly high today in which case the modelling was only a day or so out, but it still looks to me like the modelling has been overly pessimistic.

• 2,167 new cases of COVID-19 reported
• 25,038 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results
◦ 9.1% of these were positive
• 4 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive
• 18 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 171 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 3,664,571 people have received the first dose of the Covid vaccination and 2,602,753 have received their second dose

• Please note the data flow issue reported yesterday, relating to NHS Grampian, is now resolved and accounts for approximately 15 additional cases in NHS Grampian due to delayed reporting.

Jeez over 2000 cases! Why are we doing do badly? Schools?
Never mind travelling to Manchester, we'll get banned from everywhere

Well with growth like this I don't see how hospital admissions can't keep rising. Pretty grim.

@latissimusdorsi

Jeez over 2000 cases! Why are we doing do badly? Schools? Never mind travelling to Manchester, we'll get banned from everywhere

Exactly this. Seems pointless banning travel to other places when it's likely travel will be banned from Scotland to other places.

There was a backlog in cases from a couple of regions I believe so will look worse today.

9.1% .. Jesus I can see us going back into lockdown pretty soon.. bloody nightmare

@Pootle40

There was a backlog in cases from a couple of regions I believe so will look worse today.

I hope you are right. I did read there was a delay in some regions yesterday

I don't think we will go back into lockdown. There would be no reason to unless the hospitals are seeing a great increase in people who are seriously ill and we're being told that's not the case. Even the hospital admissions rising is not an indication of hospital admission due to Covid. Even Whitty and Vallance said we will continue to see cases rising for a period of time so I think it's going exactly as they said.

If anyone is in Lanarkshire, NHS Lanarkshire is starting drop in vaccination clinics. Check social media.

Swinney's being asked in parliament about the Manchester travel ban, having got a ticking off from the presiding officer for not announcing it to Parliament on Thursday, when they actually made the law, rather than to the public on Friday from NSs podium. He's claiming they did actually send an email to MSPs on Thursday, which is the same thing... (despite the fact they can't then be questioned etc). And he's totally ruling out any compensation, or admitting that the rule may not be well considered or workable or anything. I'm not sure he's managing many sentences that make sense. And he's our Deputy FM. Well done us.

Vaccination numbers seem very low yesterday!