The End is CerTEIRnly in Sight ...

[dancemom]

New thread, possibly the last?

Why are so many highly qualified scientists concerned then? The CMO? The WHO?

A lot of highly qualified scientists are also not concerned.

It’s important to look at all the sources and apply critical thinking to come to one’s own conclusion, which will also be based on how risk averse one is.

There’s no evidence of any strains for which the current vaccines do not work.

The vaccines are effective. Let’s be pleased and not catastrophise.

Yep and that's exactly what I've done. I'll choose to focus on the opinions of scientists who actually are in a position of responsibility not those seeking to garner a social media following. Concern isn't catastrophising.

@forfucksakenett

Yep and that's exactly what I've done. I'll choose to focus on the opinions of scientists who actually are in a position of responsibility not those seeking to garner a social media following. Concern isn't catastrophising.

That's like saying you trust the government because they are in a position of responsibility.......

No it's really not.

So its today we hear about Glasgow and East Ren?

@forfucksakenett the countries which have managed it better also don't have multiple long lockdowns....... Such as Scandinavian countries. Norway still allows some Oil and gas workers in and also does quarantine at a residence as well for family visitors.
The difference is though that there is more space, people are compliant generally and they also have a very good track and trace system.

Apparently sage are now concerned the Indian varient will lead to a 3rd wave.

I’m assuming that Midlothian will go back into lever 3. So even though the part I live in has had zero cases for a month, we’ll be back into restrictions. What’s the point of having neighbourhood data if the restrictions go by county? It’s really frustrating. It must be worse in a huge county like Moray where you could be 10s of miles from a case and still fall under the travel ban.

The WHO had said that the vaccines work against all the variants.

@ssd

Apparently sage are now concerned the Indian varient will lead to a 3rd wave.

SAGE, WM and SG were already preparing and modelling for a third wave in the summer regardless but with the hope that vaccinations were the tool used.

It was highlighted on these threads in Feb that the reduction in level thresholds by the SG following WHO recommendations prior to vaccinations and not using the same parameters would cause issues!

The WHO goes by random community sampling not by positive test from those doing a test.

So either SG is stubborn and sticks with what they say whilst causing further economic difficulties and huge MH strain or they backtrack..... From what I've seen they will be stubborn.

@Chemenger

I’m assuming that Midlothian will go back into lever 3. So even though the part I live in has had zero cases for a month, we’ll be back into restrictions. What’s the point of having neighbourhood data if the restrictions go by county? It’s really frustrating. It must be worse in a huge county like Moray where you could be 10s of miles from a case and still fall under the travel ban.

Totally agree! My local area and the surrounding ones haven't had a case now for weeks (long may that continue!) but due to cases elsewhere in the local authority area we could face being moved into level 3.

I do wonder though as we have lived in restrictions for most of the last 14 months whether people will pay attention to any travel restrictions imposed now as I think people are just fed up of it all

I think it's important to remember here that we are in unchartered water and sage will err on the side of caution in their messaging. If people are scared of something it will impact upon their day to day behaviour.

I think Midlothian will be ok @Chemenger
I think Gov also look at nhs capacity. Midlothian shares hospitals with areas which all have low cases at moment whereas East Ren doesn't.
The bar has been set pretty low at 50 cases

Actually maybe I mean the bar has been set pretty high at 50 cases! You know what I mean

How do I find the localised data..I have the link to the tableau and can get as far as eg East Renfrewshire but can't get a further breakdown

@frasersmummy

How do I find the localised data..I have the link to the tableau and can get as far as eg East Renfrewshire but can't get a further breakdown

Top bar above the map there is a drop down list which will have it in that brings up the map of the area

Click on the East Ren map@frasersmummy. It's divided up into smaller areas

SAGE and Westminster advisors have been talking about another potential wave in the autumn/winter for quite some time. It's expected as the virus becomes endemic and mutates readily that there'll be some breakthrough infections, probably in a seasonal pattern, but the hope is that the vulnerable can be protected to some extent through booster vaccination. I'm not aware that anyone is suggesting that this frankly perfectly natural viral infection cycle should lead to perpetual lockdowns - quite the opposite in fact. They have made clear that opening up should be irreversible, and that future infection will largely be controlled by vaccination rather than lockdowns, which themselves have massive known harms on many levels.

I'm not sure why this would be a surprise to anyone, except perhaps certain SG advisors who believe you can control COVID like Measles...

The SAGE modelling does, of course, take into account vaccines . The rhetoric of 'It's a race between vaccines and covid ' spouted by the PM and Hancock is utter tosh.

The lack of enforced quarantine on people coming back from India has led to the outbreaks in places like Bolton and Glasgow (and thus stopped Glasgow moving down to Tier 2). People flew into England and travelled up when they were given the 3 day warning from the UK Government ( and just like the other four nations of the UK said would happen and why a four nation approach was needed).

Just to be abundantly clear. I am in no way blaming the people who travelled back. I am blaming the UK Government.

@Scottishskifun .. thank you

I should change that to - it caused the outbreaks in Govanhill / Pollockshields which led to Glasgow staying in tier 3.

How do you know this for sure @StarryEyeSurprise? Not being goady, just curious.

I had a look this morning @frasersmummy, it looks bad in every area in ER. I think it's a certainty that we'll go back up to tier 3 unfortunately. It's just a question of how long we're there for I suppose.

Fingers crossed we'll be set free in Moray. OH usually goes to the pub to avoid me and DC watching Eurovision but so annoyed that he can't do that this year.