The Fall Out Continues - thread 6

[TheShadowyFeminist]

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@TheShadowyFeminist

Kenny MacAskill has resigned from the SNP to stand as an Alba candidate in the Holyrood election

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Not seen it confirmed officially - will see if I can find that.

I thought he might go - he's very team Salmond (and I suspect he may have been the source of the Davis messages, or they both have a shared source)

ITV reporting Douglas Ross has asked to meet with Labour and LibDems to discuss tactical voting. He's been rebuffing notions of working together strongly up to now.

'other colleagues' - does he mean Angus Brendan will jump too? Would be v likely, and his constituency is grumbly with him anyway so he might not have much to lose...

@SempreSuiGeneris

ITV reporting Douglas Ross has asked to meet with Labour and LibDems to discuss tactical voting. He's been rebuffing notions of working together strongly up to now.

The unionist parties have most to lose in this situation so I can understand why they're going down this route. The problem is that the others become tarnished by co-operating with the Tories, especially in Scotland. The LibDems paid that price for their coalition, labour paid a heavy price after the referendum for working with th in the 'better together' campaign.

Soooo many things to think about for all of them. They've all be caught on the hop, despite claiming to have predicted it.

I wonder if any female MPs will cross over? I don't mean JC, think that would be tactically unwise, but it would be interesting to know whether there are other women in the parliamentary party who are scunnered enough by the antics of Blackman et al. to jump. Do we know who the woman was who left the parliamentary group meeting in tears because she was being denounced as transphobic?

@SempreSuiGeneris

I'm Orcadian by birth and heritage. I'd far rather vote for a Party appealing to the Land of Alba than one appealing to some self selecting notion of Nationalism. I don't really think of Alba as only pertaining to the Gaels in either linguistic or nationhood terms. Could just be me.

Same, except I'm born in Shetland, and no way are any of my large extended family and distant cousins, most of whom know each other, voting for a party with a Gaelic name or anything other than Liberal or for a party with liberal (read libertarian) values .

StatisticallyChallenged Are there many/any examples which are similar to Scotland and to the position we potentially have? I'm thinking countries which have existed for a relatively long period in their previous form, which aren't former colonies, are in close proximity (and will therefore need to sustain good relations), and where the desire for the constitutional change is marginal? I'm genuinely curious as I'm struggling to think of good examples.

Quebec is the classic example of the Neverendum. Theres been several independence refernedums with Canada, and there always been a No vote with a fairly small margin involved, hence theres always pressure for yet another neverendum. But Quebec actually has a different language (Quebec French) from the rest of Canada).

I think the push for greater Gaelicisation might stem from the Scottish Government's desire to push the separate identity thing. It always seems a bit false to me, as in resurrecting a language that has long been dead in day to day spoken language in most areas of Scotland for hundreds of years. We might as well resurrect Norn in Shetland and Orkney, and probably could do so if the same funding was available.

I think Neale Hanvey will jump. He was sacked for donating to SVP crowdfunder to sue Kirsty Blackman. He'd previously been suspended after being targeted by the OFI/YSI factions for posting an article that contained an anti-Semitic cartoon? Or wording? Can't remember which, but he's got little to gain from remaining in the SNP.

As we are always being told that there’s so much support for independence it shouldn’t be seen as biased. And we’ve learned lessons from the Brexit vote, and the last referendum and the bitterness and recrimination of a narrowly divided nation.

At the very least I’d like to see a clear set of policies, intentions and agreements on key issues before voting.

Most of all I’d like to see a Scottish government focussing on education, poverty and inequality.

Agree re Quebec - I suppose I was trying to think of countries which have managed to be successful in becoming independent in similar circumstances.

@OhBuggerandArse

I wonder if any female MPs will cross over? I don't mean JC, think that would be tactically unwise, but it would be interesting to know whether there are other women in the parliamentary party who are scunnered enough by the antics of Blackman et al. to jump. Do we know who the woman was who left the parliamentary group meeting in tears because she was being denounced as transphobic?

I wonder if there's been any change behind the scenes in how SNP are interacting with JC since this announcement. It must be an interesting conflict for them; the risk of her jumping ship vs staying.

Although there seems to be such a drive toward ideological purity that they might be delighted to lose folk like JC and KM who don't conform.

@titsintiers

I think good chance JC in there too

Cherry? Well that's all credibility shredded if she does.

Greenland agreed. Maximum Independence from everyone is the only way.

Ian Blackford on MacAskill

"After yesterday's events this is the second least surprising news in Scottish politics. He has been an increasing embarrassment to many in the SNP and his departure is somewhat of a relief."

@StatisticallyChallenged

Agree re Quebec - I suppose I was trying to think of countries which have managed to be successful in becoming independent in similar circumstances.

Czeckia and Slovakia split quite recently. And Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia split off from the former USSR a while ago, although they have a long relatively recent history of being independent nations. Norway split from Sweden in 1905, but again had a long relatively recent history of being independent. Eritrea split from Ethiopia quite recently.

Except from Norway (which Shetland and Orkney were part off til the 16th century), none of these are particularly exciting examples of attractive countries to live in, when compared to larger countries such as the UK or France or Germany and the opportunities for ambitious, motivated people that those countries provide.

I don't think JC will go. I think it will be interesting to see how SNP do respond though, as so far they've been happy to allow the most appalling behaviour towards her while she had no option but to either put up with it or quit. The prospect of having her in opposition at Holyrood? That's very different.

But ultimately it's a big gamble for someone in her position to go in with an as yet untested party/set up which could still fall on its arse.

MacAskill is in the twilight of his political career, same as Salmond, so it's a very different prospect to jump ship for MacAskill than it is for Cherry.

@StatisticallyChallenged

Ian Blackford on MacAskill

"After yesterday's events this is the second least surprising news in Scottish politics. He has been an increasing embarrassment to many in the SNP and his departure is somewhat of a relief."

😂

Blackford is an utter arse.

LibDems already rejected the Douglas Ross overtures.

One thing that Alba might appeal to is Scots who are not central belt focussed. It might have a broader Scottish appeal that often isn't apparent in the central-belt, urban focussed SNP. The SNP all too often seems to overlook the interests of much of rural Scotland or even to be woefully ignorant of concerns that exists.

The other parties (Labour, Conservative and Lib-Dem) might be best to form an alliance pledge to work together in government if reaching a majority. Although for some reason in the UK, coalition governments are seen as a dirty word, although considered perfectly normal in many European countries.

Thanks @GreenlandTheMovie. They were ones I was thinking of which didn't quite translate - the former USSR is so complex that it doesn't really work well and AFAIK Norwegian independence was very popular and the two were only in union for about 90 years and they were more separate than we are (own currencies were retained for example) so I think dissolution was more straightforward?

@TheShadowyFeminist

I don't think JC will go. I think it will be interesting to see how SNP do respond though, as so far they've been happy to allow the most appalling behaviour towards her while she had no option but to either put up with it or quit. The prospect of having her in opposition at Holyrood? That's very different.

But ultimately it's a big gamble for someone in her position to go in with an as yet untested party/set up which could still fall on its arse.

MacAskill is in the twilight of his political career, same as Salmond, so it's a very different prospect to jump ship for MacAskill than it is for Cherry.

The question for Cherry is going to be whether she believes she has a sustainable future in the SNP. Right now, I would not bet on that. Their moves to define transphobia in a broad way with the potential to apply that definition retrospectively could easily see her pushed out of the party, and even if they don't manage to she could face an incredibly difficult time getting reselected.

So what is better - staying in SNP as an MP, unable to make the leap to Holyrood where she wants to be, and possibly not getting reselected anyway. Or jumping ship and at least having the option of standing for Holyrood, with the safety of being able to stay an MP for as long as she is currently guaranteed anyway.

Norway also retains freedom of movement with neighbours.

I don’t think there’s much fondness for Alex Salmond in the south, certainly.

@GreenlandTheMovie

One thing that Alba might appeal to is Scots who are not central belt focussed. It might have a broader Scottish appeal that often isn't apparent in the central-belt, urban focussed SNP. The SNP all too often seems to overlook the interests of much of rural Scotland or even to be woefully ignorant of concerns that exists.

The other parties (Labour, Conservative and Lib-Dem) might be best to form an alliance pledge to work together in government if reaching a majority. Although for some reason in the UK, coalition governments are seen as a dirty word, although considered perfectly normal in many European countries.

The fishing industry has already been mentioned by Salmond as something he's focused on addressing in terms of market access etc. With the near collapse of the fishing industry post brexit (and mainly down to the staggering incompetence of those who were supposed to be dealing with this - the Tory fishing minister I think said she was helping with a nativity play when the 'deal' was being finalised & hadn't read the details I think) this is an area that's important and such an easy target for the likes of Alba. The SNP really didn't cover themselves in glory over this either IMO. Finger wagging at the Tories didn't really help!

The central belt doesn't really see much of the machinations involved in that area/industry so who knows if it's something that he can reel voters in with? I don't know if they're more or less likely to accept Salmond's overtures on this.

Blackford is like a talking armpit.

@StatisticallyChallenged

Thanks *@GreenlandTheMovie*. They were ones I was thinking of which didn't quite translate - the former USSR is so complex that it doesn't really work well and AFAIK Norwegian independence was very popular and the two were only in union for about 90 years and they were more separate than we are (own currencies were retained for example) so I think dissolution was more straightforward?

Greenland (and the Faeroe Islands) are semi-independent territories of Denmark, but are still heavily dependent on Danish funding. Greenland is obviously ethnically different compared to the Danish state. A bit like the Isle of Man and Channel Islands situation with the UK.

I'm sure there are many other examples (Israel?) but not that many in Western Europe in recent times. If you go back far enough to the 10th century and beyond, most of Europe was comprised of separate small states and principalities which gradually joined together to form more powerful, successful larger countries, but which are where most of the independence movements come from today. Germany is quite a "new" country in its current form (I don't just mean East Germany rejoining the rest of Germany).

@Blurberoo

Blackford is like a talking armpit.

😂