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The Fall Out Continues - thread 6

999 replies

TheShadowyFeminist · 26/03/2021 13:32

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15
TheShadowyFeminist · 26/03/2021 23:52

@OhBuggerandArse

Interesting Humza Yousaf going all in on AS's reputation with women - people in glass houses should perhaps be more cautious with the stone-juggling.
That is a bold move!
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TheShadowyFeminist · 26/03/2021 23:55

Sex based rights, not sexual. Typo/autocorrect I missed there.

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GreenlandTheMovie · 27/03/2021 00:18

@TheShadowyFeminist

Alex Salmond interview on Newsnight has him confirming his 2 women candidates included as the women's representation & that one of the key issues they're concerned with is women's safe single sex spaces.

This is going to get a bit mental - Salmond's party advocating on women's rights while SNP/Greens want to push ahead with GRA reform/dismantle sexual based rights.

This is exactly the bind that they were bound to get into, by pursuing this agenda to the point where they don't listen to women. And here's Alex Salmond making his opening gambit to advocate for single sex spaces.

I wonder when Sturgeon will be asked what a woman is?

The interview went after him on his past behaviour which he dodged with the 'I'm moving on, fair minded people accept the outcomes of court/trial/committee reports'.

Doug Ross was on straight after and went straight in with the inappropriate conduct.

I can see the point being laboured tonight will grow old v quickly. Especially if Salmond just keeps repeating the same responses & doesn't engage on it. Not quite sure it's the winning tactic tbh. Given the 'cancel culture' climate we live in now, I'm wondering how long Salmond can go without it becoming overwhelming (given how relentless that can be). Or is he so old school that the online pile ons just wash over him?

It's Scotland. Politicians get away with anything here. Have any of them ever been cancelled?
StatisticallyChallenged · 27/03/2021 08:42

It's Scotland. Politicians get away with anything here. Have any of them ever been cancelled?

They're trying damn hard with JC.

Given the 'cancel culture' climate we live in now, I'm wondering how long Salmond can go without it becoming overwhelming (given how relentless that can be). Or is he so old school that the online pile ons just wash over him?

I'm not sure - these aren't hidden allegations, they're already very much out there. I don't think Salmond will give a rat's ass about twitter pile ons, and anyone who has joined the party knows the score so it's going to be hard to force him out.

This is going to be an interesting election, that's for sure.

SempreSuiGeneris · 27/03/2021 08:49

I think the danger for the Indy movement is that this exposes the Left / Right split and also the Central Belt vs the Rest. So some pro Alba could vote Labour / Con / LibDem in the constituencies and Alba on the List while pro NS SNP stay loyal on both. It is possible that the SNP could lose constituencies with any List roll over going to Alba rather than them.

It will be interesting to see who Alba choose for Glasgow.

WouldBeGood · 27/03/2021 08:53

Imagine the Scottish Parliament with both NS and
AS in it after all this.

riverrunning · 27/03/2021 09:03

So it's come to this, women's safe spaces defended by Salmond. Agree that the female complainants would be mad to waive anonymity, look at the threats women in the public eye suffer at the best of times.

ATieLikeRichardGere · 27/03/2021 09:07

This about the naming of the party gave me a laugh:

mobile.twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1375562066883399684

SempreSuiGeneris · 27/03/2021 09:09

And that's the otoh horns of the dilemma for NS and the SNP. If she changes tack and decides to work with AS she risks the "vote NS get AS narrative" and vice versa and alienates a chunk of the core vote on both sides plus a slice of the middle ground who are not fussed with either but could only thole one or the other.

The Independent front page today is an article about SNP supporters urging NS to work with AS. On balance probably a bad idea because they would look like a worn out version of the team that failed in 2014.

All of this yellow on yellow is already starting to draw a lot of the focus onto the various factions within the Yes Movement and their differences and failings.

SempreSuiGeneris · 27/03/2021 09:11

Love John Rentoul. Always keeps you guessing about whether he's on the wind up.

StatisticallyChallenged · 27/03/2021 09:53

It is definitely starting to highlight the factions and splits within the SNP. I think they're being smart by not trying to play woke top trumps either; they know that the GRA/HCB and associated stuff is alienating a subset of voters and that there will be pro indy women who will feel that Alba is the best place for at least their list vote. I wouldn't be entirely shocked if we see some voting Tory/Alba purely on this issue.

I'm not sure where we (as a country) go from here. Roughly half of the country want to be independent, roughly half don't. As a result if it becoming such a big issue it's almost like there's two separate elections going on in a way - unionists choosing between Lab/Con/Lib, indy choosing between SNP/Green/ISP/Alba. At the moment that results in an SNP government repeatedly because the constituency vote isn't split, but that could change in future years if one of the others grows and becomes a full blown big party who contest all seats.

I don't know what the way forward is, but we're beginning to look a bit like Northern Ireland - the history is very different and so are the underlying issues around religion and I don't mean in any way to downplay any of that. But I just mean that right now, both are part of the UK but with a sizeable proportion of their population who don't want to be, and who as a result will never consider certain parties.

I suppose it feels to me like we need to find a way to somehow divorce day to day governance from the constitutional question. I wouldn't vote for SNP personally because of their stance on other issues, but it would feel much healthier to me if we could somehow have a situation where a vote for any party wasn't taken as an endorsement of their position on this one issue so we could actually focus on running the country we have, rather than the situation at the moment where it feels like it's always being run with an ulterior motive.

A lot has changed since the Scottish Parliament was created and I'm not sure it's fit for purpose just now. I know most pro indy people won't agree with me, partly because many are convinced they'll win the next indyref so it's a short term issue. But what if it's not? What if we have another one and it's 49%. Or what if it is 51% - ok so you win but there will still be this rift. I don't think it's safe to assume that if we become independent everyone will just "get behind" the new version; it's not happening with Brexit and that is less of a change IMO.

I feel like we need a big rethink.

Graffitiqueen · 27/03/2021 09:57

[quote ATieLikeRichardGere]This about the naming of the party gave me a laugh:

mobile.twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1375562066883399684[/quote]
Love al the comments under it that didn't get the joke. 😂

ATieLikeRichardGere · 27/03/2021 10:25

I think you have laid out the issues perfectly Statistically. I really would really rather Scotland didn’t become one of the world’s unsolvable problem spots. We do need a big rethink but we don’t seem to be very capable of big, sensible conversations.

ResilienceWanker · 27/03/2021 10:27

@StatisticallyChallenged

It is definitely starting to highlight the factions and splits within the SNP. I think they're being smart by not trying to play woke top trumps either; they know that the GRA/HCB and associated stuff is alienating a subset of voters and that there will be pro indy women who will feel that Alba is the best place for at least their list vote. I wouldn't be entirely shocked if we see some voting Tory/Alba purely on this issue.

I'm not sure where we (as a country) go from here. Roughly half of the country want to be independent, roughly half don't. As a result if it becoming such a big issue it's almost like there's two separate elections going on in a way - unionists choosing between Lab/Con/Lib, indy choosing between SNP/Green/ISP/Alba. At the moment that results in an SNP government repeatedly because the constituency vote isn't split, but that could change in future years if one of the others grows and becomes a full blown big party who contest all seats.

I don't know what the way forward is, but we're beginning to look a bit like Northern Ireland - the history is very different and so are the underlying issues around religion and I don't mean in any way to downplay any of that. But I just mean that right now, both are part of the UK but with a sizeable proportion of their population who don't want to be, and who as a result will never consider certain parties.

I suppose it feels to me like we need to find a way to somehow divorce day to day governance from the constitutional question. I wouldn't vote for SNP personally because of their stance on other issues, but it would feel much healthier to me if we could somehow have a situation where a vote for any party wasn't taken as an endorsement of their position on this one issue so we could actually focus on running the country we have, rather than the situation at the moment where it feels like it's always being run with an ulterior motive.

A lot has changed since the Scottish Parliament was created and I'm not sure it's fit for purpose just now. I know most pro indy people won't agree with me, partly because many are convinced they'll win the next indyref so it's a short term issue. But what if it's not? What if we have another one and it's 49%. Or what if it is 51% - ok so you win but there will still be this rift. I don't think it's safe to assume that if we become independent everyone will just "get behind" the new version; it's not happening with Brexit and that is less of a change IMO.

I feel like we need a big rethink.

Just saying, I think you've managed to summarise all my confused thinking on this in a single post Grin. I was thinking about the last para last night. The whole "i'll vote SNP til we're independent, and then for a Scottish party working for scotland" thing I'm not sure holds up. I can't see why there wouldn't immediately be parties or a party forming that will campaign to rejoin the union with the country so split (as the SNP is saying it would with the EU if independent) which could also gain traction. So I agree, I don't think everyone would get behind independence.
WouldBeGood · 27/03/2021 10:30

I really do agree @StatisticallyChallenged.

We need a government focussed on the issues of the day, not independence.

I’d also say that any referendum on such a big constitutional question should require a higher mandate, such as 75/25.

TheShadowyFeminist · 27/03/2021 11:08

I agree with a lot of what you say Statistically but this but stood out because I think this is why we are in this state:

A lot has changed since the Scottish Parliament was created and I'm not sure it's fit for purpose just now.

The SNP built their 'brand' on being a small party keen to make the right decisions for Scotland/the Scottish people & when they were in minority government & there was a functioning opposition, I think they benefited from the appearance of a reasonable party willing to listen & compromise where needed, to get good policy/legislation through. I may have missed early iterations of their penchant for poor legislation but my recollection is that there was at least good robust debates & 'testing' of legislation etc.

The collapse of opposition has left the SNP in control (and I think even when in coalition with the greens, they're aligned on so many 'niche' areas, there is effective control still) & instead of being what their 'brand' told most of us they were like, they've consistently ignored opposing views & refused to listen when their flawed policies & positions have the potential to create harms (even if unintended) to the point of having 2 major bills binned, a 3rd just gone through (HCB) and a 4th just waiting for them to get though this election & pick up again - no matter how unworkable or unpopular it is.

The system works as long as there is a strong opposition. Without it, its created the SNP monster we are looking at now.

The issues highlighted by the harassment committee on blurred lines in separation of powers, the lack of a 2nd chamber to curb the excesses of policy rushed through, the SNP's cosy set up with their gov funded lobby groups who are effectively writing legislation for them, all point to a rotten system which atm can't even be tackled. And the party issues that the SNP have just makes me think the power has gone to their heads & they've assumed they can now dictate to the electorate, not listen to them.

As you say, with the country so divided as well, along the independence lines, I think we're in for more turmoil. This election might well be a huge turning point, and my worry is it won't be what anyone wants or expects.

I'm fascinated to see how this will turn out, but at the same time, also worried about how this will all turn out. My hope is that the shake up gives everyone a wake up call, and maybe if the SNP do still get their overall majority, they'll have had the shock needed to make them start to pay attention. But my gut tells me they'll carry on regardless.

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annabelindajane · 27/03/2021 11:20

Agree with Shadowyfeminist : this is all very interesting and serious at same time . Meanwhile the country on all the major issues is poorly run
and that seems to go right over the top of peoples heads . Don’t know how that message gets out in a calm non combative way .

Non of this makes for stability which is essential for businesses to thrive .

GreenlandTheMovie · 27/03/2021 11:40

@WouldBeGood

I really do agree *@StatisticallyChallenged*.

We need a government focussed on the issues of the day, not independence.

I’d also say that any referendum on such a big constitutional question should require a higher mandate, such as 75/25.

A special majority (usually 75%) in favour is normally required in most countries' constutions for major Constitutional changes. Sometimes its less - 60%. But its generally recognised that having Constitutional votes based on a simple majority is dangerous territory as it risks too close results and sparking ongoing non acceptance by the losing side of the vote.

Again, that wouldn't work in Scotland. There was so much criticism of the referendum on the 1970s that required a special majority in favour of devolution to pass it.

Can you imagine the allegations of bias and unfairness that would result if anything as sensible as that was required for I dependence, or brexit?

Again, it falls back on the lack of a constitution laying down what exactly is required, so that people have certainty and can respect the Constitutional settlement, not argue about what the rules actually are.

At the moment in Scotland we have more of a "Neverendum" situation, but one which is turning increasingly nasty.

sessell · 27/03/2021 11:42

I agree @stats that indy is not likely a short term issue, whatever indy supporters would like to hope for. But if you are genuinely pro indy then it will be hard to ignore the logic of SNP 1 Alba 2. And if you're voting primarily to halt the roll-back of women's rights - which would be my top priority - Alba also sounds good so far. Like stats says I could see a lot of women voting Tory / Alba to press the point home. SNP/ Greens have seriously let women down with actual policy. They can throw all the personal ad Homs they like - but I'd be looking at their policies. With that let's also see what the manifestos say.

GreenlandTheMovie · 27/03/2021 11:53

Alba is certainly a more appealing name than SNP, which in comparison sounds outdated and is too easily associated with nationalism in the worst sense.

But I can't see it appealing to Shetlanders or Orcadians, since Gaelic was never spoken there and their history is Norse.

TheShadowyFeminist · 27/03/2021 11:54

Kenny MacAskill has resigned from the SNP to stand as an Alba candidate in the Holyrood election

Tweet

Not seen it confirmed officially - will see if I can find that.

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Sundances · 27/03/2021 11:58

Come on the Albanians.
Smile

SempreSuiGeneris · 27/03/2021 12:03

I'm Orcadian by birth and heritage. I'd far rather vote for a Party appealing to the Land of Alba than one appealing to some self selecting notion of Nationalism. I don't really think of Alba as only pertaining to the Gaels in either linguistic or nationhood terms. Could just be me.

SempreSuiGeneris · 27/03/2021 12:12

Chris Musson also confirming. Kenny MacAskill: "I will continue serving as MP. Along with other colleagues in Alba I will work with the SNP group in Westminster in opposing the harm that’s being done to our land by the UK Government."

Wonder if there are indeed "other colleagues" about to announce? Could become problematic for Blackford to work with while also opposing Alba. Not sure nuance and diplomacy are his strong suits. Grin

StatisticallyChallenged · 27/03/2021 12:14

I'm also fascinated to see how this election and the aftermath plays out - but it's a bit like watching a scary movie through the gaps in my fingers!

I agree re the majority needed for constitutional change. I know many indy supporters would be delighted but would independence on 50.1% really be a good thing for the country? Look how much of a mess Brexit was just in terms of even agreeing anything internally about how to proceed. It's not going to just vanish, not when it's that close.

A lot of the often quoted examples of countries which became independence don't translate well to our situation either. Many are countries which are more geographically distant (former colonies for example) which I think will also make a difference; we're attached to England compared to being hundreds or even thousands of miles away. Others are the break up of countries which only existed for comparatively short periods - a lot of new countries are actually countries re-emerging from the artificial boundaries created in the post war periods.

Are there many/any examples which are similar to Scotland and to the position we potentially have? I'm thinking countries which have existed for a relatively long period in their previous form, which aren't former colonies, are in close proximity (and will therefore need to sustain good relations), and where the desire for the constitutional change is marginal? I'm genuinely curious as I'm struggling to think of good examples.

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