The Fall Out Continues - thread 6

[TheShadowyFeminist]

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Ah, Chris McEleny

No surprise there

eva comrie

Wasn't she recently hounded on FB for making a comment about women or something? The name rings a bell.

I'm not a regular on these threads but I've lurked a bit. Is this not playing straight into the hands of the unionist parties, in that it will split the SNP vote?

Ah, they seem to be standing in the regions....

Joe Pike
@joepike
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Replying to
@joepike
Alba will stand candidates on the regional lists only. A minimum of 4 candidates on each list.

The aim is to create a 'supermajority' for Scottish Independence. But clearly could affect the dominance of the SNP.
Joe Pike
@joepike
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1m
Salmond says the party will hold a candidates conference a week on Saturday. Candidates already include:

Ex SNP cllr Chris McEleny -
@ChrisMcEleny

Eva Comrie -
@mickbrick54

Cythia Guthrie -
@cynthguthrie

#SP21

Thank you, I was listening but wasn't sure of the spelling!

For clarity I meant by leader he led the party in Inverclyde council, not the whole SNP

Can someone please explain what it a super majority? I am a bit clueless on this stuff.

Will this dilute the pro independence vote just like the existence of multiple pro unionist parties dilutes the pro union vote?

If so, yay!

I guess if they win any seats they’ll support SNP call for another referendum at least.

I have to confess that I really didn’t see this coming at all.

The broadcast is a little unwatchable though.

This is painfully amateurish.

Surely it makes no odds to the independence vote if the indy parties are split, it just puts them in the same boat as the non indy and theoretically gives a bit more competition and representation to those who are scunnered with SNP but still want indy? So not a bad thing from the indy pov really. Not my bag but the more competition the better to spread the vote out.

@StatisticallyChallenged

This is painfully amateurish.

I thought that too.

Ooooh. That's interesting. Right time to start a new thread!
Would be amusing if NS had to collaborate with AS to pass policies if SNP didn't have an overall majority... He could be the new Patrick Harvie..

@RedactedTaeFeck

Surely it makes no odds to the independence vote if the indy parties are split, it just puts them in the same boat as the non indy and theoretically gives a bit more competition and representation to those who are scunnered with SNP but still want indy? So not a bad thing from the indy pov really. Not my bag but the more competition the better to spread the vote out.

I think (because of the vote splitting) if people vote SNP 1 and something else pro indy 2 then you could end up with proportionately more pro indy MSPs than pro indy voters. I'd need to run the numbers. That might not be the case however if it fragments heavily.

I think there's a real chance they could cut into the SNP vote. The volume of disgruntled SNP members & former voters is quite high.

AFI's candidates list announcements fizzled out quick!

The whole 2 vote thing fries my brain. I understand how it works but the intricacies of trying to factor in different options is beyond my thinking at the moment. I'd welcome your analysis on it when you get round to it stats.

Opposite of dilution. Currently SNP win almost all seats in Constituencies. They don't win List seats because they only poll under 50% of total vote. This means most of their List 2 votes are wasted. If instead enough vote constituency SNP and List Alba then they win All the constituency seats they already hold plus half the List seats in the name of Alba.

So roughly speaking SNP on 60 seats, Alba 30, Tory and Labour on 15 a piece and LibDem most of rest. PH would likely get wiped out.

I'd like to read their manifesto - will it differ much from NSs

AFI is well to the Left of Alba and the SNP, whereas Alba looks to be to right of SNP so different appeal. Wonder if SNP will align with Alba strategy?

One of the candidates for Alba is one of the 3 who stood down from the SNP NEC Finance Committee over access to the books.

Are the SNP still strong on all the constituency seats though? They've had a helluva battering & I can't believe it's had zero impact. I'm probably wrong but I see a lot of people not intending to vote for them on the constituency seats.

If the lose a couple of constituency seats, does that not then mean the anomaly when the tool the majority is possible again? Or if their list vote collapses, it's a different outcome yet again?

One of the candidates for Alba is one of the 3 who stood down from the SNP NEC Finance Committee over access to the books.

👀👀👀

Apologies for the typos.

By way of a shameless place mark I would like to say that I have great difficulty with AS.