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The Fall Out Continues - thread 6

999 replies

TheShadowyFeminist · 26/03/2021 13:32

New 🧵

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TheShadowyFeminist · 26/03/2021 16:55

[quote ATieLikeRichardGere]“ Min percentage of the vote Alba needs to win a list seat, and who it damages:

C Scot: 5.8% (Lab)
Glasgow: 5.9% (Grn)
Highlands: 5.5% (LDem)
Lothian: 6.6% (Lab)
Mid Scot: 6.0% (Con)
NE Scot: 6.2% (Grn)
S Scot: 5.4% (SNP)
W Scot: 5.3% (Lab)

Src BE-NS model”

mobile.twitter.com/bnhw_/status/1375461477834973184[/quote]
I need to know what these % translate to in numbers of votes! 5/6% of the list votes is how many?

Off to try and find the numbers...

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titsintiers · 26/03/2021 16:59

@HeelsHandbagPerfumeCoffee

Salmond has a hard core of supporters for sure but he lacks the intelligence and support of Ms Sturgeon He’s largely irrelevant & has a preoccupation with his ongoing grudge with Ms Sturgeon
I'm not a Salmond fan but he's every bit as intelligent as Sturgeon.
DivGirl · 26/03/2021 17:00

They’ll need between 15,000 and 20,000 in each constituency by my maths (I was so bad at maths the school refused to let me do higher).

TheShadowyFeminist · 26/03/2021 17:02

@DivGirl

They’ll need between 15,000 and 20,000 in each constituency by my maths (I was so bad at maths the school refused to let me do higher).
I'm not sure that's doable. Even off the back of Salmond's core support.

But I could be wrong.

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DivGirl · 26/03/2021 17:05

It’s around the same number of votes as the Green Party gets in many constituencies so it might be possible? It’s certainly got people talking.

TheShadowyFeminist · 26/03/2021 17:05

I'm seeing loads of 'I've just joined Alba'
Tweets now. Which sound a lot like the SNP ones recently.

I wonder what membership numbers will look like for either of them come the election?

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sessell · 26/03/2021 17:06

The part of the press conference I watched was a shambles. And some of the links on the website don't work. Not a great start. I expected better from Salmond on presentation details. Also, apart from Indy, what are their policies? They are not on the website.

TheShadowyFeminist · 26/03/2021 17:07

@DivGirl

It’s around the same number of votes as the Green Party gets in many constituencies so it might be possible? It’s certainly got people talking.
I agree. It's really put the cat among the pigeons.

I'm quite enjoying the chaos & uncertainty!

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DivGirl · 26/03/2021 17:16

Oh me too @TheShadowyFeminist. Elections are meant to be exciting and uncertain - I am loving this.

Graffitiqueen · 26/03/2021 17:17

Someone on twitter has coined it the Ecksit party!! Grin

Graffitiqueen · 26/03/2021 17:18

Cherry has defected to alba [popcorn]

ResilienceWanker · 26/03/2021 17:20

Having had a think about it, it is quite a clever strategy. As they aren't standing in constituencies, the snp will still likely get half, or close to half of those, but by so doing, self-limit their potential to get list seats. So a second "serious" (?) independence party does have the potential to hoover up the list seats. It seems unfair that there could potentially be such a majority of MSPs supportive of a country-changing policy that only around half of voters support, but obviously, the "no" supporters have to split their constituency votes (as well as list votes) over more than one party, so can't run with a similar strategy. And that's not going to change.

But its success does rely on a really good info campaign on their part to explain the complexities. And I think that is where they could fail. I'm not sure they will manage to get the same people voting for both "NS" and "AS" given the way the independence community has divided into one of two camps.

Also, DH suggested Alba was an acronym. Alex's Loony Bampot Alliance maybe? Wink

Graffitiqueen · 26/03/2021 17:21

@Graffitiqueen

Cherry has defected to alba [popcorn]
Actually looks like I got over excited by a tweet from an imposter account dammit!!
Graffitiqueen · 26/03/2021 17:22

Please please please let that worm harvie lose his seat!!

TheShadowyFeminist · 26/03/2021 17:22

@Graffitiqueen

Cherry has defected to alba [popcorn]
It's a fake account that's been posted on.

I did a double take though, quite convincing.

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noego · 26/03/2021 17:25

This is getting interesting :)

midnightkit · 26/03/2021 17:28

It will certainly shake up the election campaign. I'm amazed by the tolerance of AS on here but if it's party does well and gives a further push to independence then it's not all bad

ATieLikeRichardGere · 26/03/2021 17:29

I concur that it seems like 15,000 - 20,000 votes or so per at the usual level of turnout per electoral region.

Graffitiqueen · 26/03/2021 17:30

@midnightkit

It will certainly shake up the election campaign. I'm amazed by the tolerance of AS on here but if it's party does well and gives a further push to independence then it's not all bad
What tolerance for AS? I think there are very few AS supporters on here. Quite the opposite in fact.
SempreSuiGeneris · 26/03/2021 17:30

Ecksit Party. Genius Grin

Happinessisawarmcervix · 26/03/2021 17:31

@Graffitiqueen

Someone on twitter has coined it the Ecksit party!! Grin
That’s brilliant.
MiniMork · 26/03/2021 17:31

So the Alba Party will be the old SNP Tartan Tories then?

He only ever pretended to be a Nordic social democrat to outflank the Labour Party to the left in it’s the post-industrial homelands.

He’s banking on picking up votes in the fishing places that’s re his old stomping grounds, the ones that the Tories have screwed over post Brexit.

No wonder the boy Ross is quaking in his boots a bit. Banffshire coast is no easy place for a Tory these days. Interesting how quickly his tune has changed from “these allegations must be investigated” to “discredited politician”. Still, hopefully he’ll manage to scrape by on the list vote, having decamped from his wafer thin Westminster marginal after a performative show of being his own man regarding Cummings and goings to bolster his street cred and distance himself from the electoral poison at the Scottish ballot box that is BoJo.

Balkanisation I tell you, Balkanisation.

Orwellian.

ATieLikeRichardGere · 26/03/2021 17:31

Joanna Cherry has denied she is joining Alba mobile.twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1375499695255093255

Happinessisawarmcervix · 26/03/2021 17:34

@sessell

The part of the press conference I watched was a shambles. And some of the links on the website don't work. Not a great start. I expected better from Salmond on presentation details. Also, apart from Indy, what are their policies? They are not on the website.
This may sound a daft question but do they need policies other than “get independence”?

One of the criticisms I’ve seen of the SNP was that they have settled down into governing a devolved nation when their “one job” was supposed to be to get independence for Scotland.

The problem with that, of course, is that an independent Scotland wouldn’t need an SNP any more...

StatisticallyChallenged · 26/03/2021 17:53

To me this is targeting two groups

  • disenchanted (or plain disenfranchised) pro indy voters who are, for whatever reason, not very enamoured with the SNP
  • any pro indy voter who either already understands d'hondt, or is interested enough to listen to a slightly technical explanation

I'd need to run some more figures but the ones I did for Glasgow suggest that you could end up with unionist voters being very poorly represented. It could well end up being no better than a straight up FPTP system. Might be better in more mixed areas like South of Scotland